Upcoming schedule, Cabrera rant

Tough weekend for the Reds. Losing 2 of 3 to the Royals is unacceptable even if one was to Zack Greinke. He was amazing on Sunday, dominating every Reds hitter except Joey Votto. The big disappointment was the pitching. The Royals and Giants are bad offensive teams but they crushed the ball all over the field. Now the Reds get the Dodgers, a good hitting team. I shutter to think of what they will do this week. But don't fret Reds fans, relief is on the way. Beginning Friday, the Reds start a west coast road trip that takes them to Seattle and Oakland before returning to play 3 against the Indians. I see the Reds winning all 3 of those series and taking control of the Central. Let's hope the pitching comes around in time.

One quick Dusty note: He keeps playing Orlando Cabrera and batting him leadoff. This is unacceptable. 2 years ago I started this blog partly because he kept playing Corey Patterson, he of the .238 OBP, and batting him leadoff. I was not pleased. Last season, it was Willy Taveras and his .275 OBP. Now it is Cabrera and his .296. I think he is doing this on purpose to piss me off. It is by far the lowest on the team and I can't imagine anyone looking at the numbers and batting him leadoff unless they were trying to lose. I don't care what leadership he brings. A real leader who take a backseat when it is clear they were hurting the team. ANY PLAYER ON THE ROSTER, INCLUDING HIS BACKUP, WOULD BE BETTER. Why does Dusty keep putting the guy who makes the most outs at the top of the order? Does he not understand baseball? Is he sniffing glue? Is he a communist? I wish I knew the answer to any of those questions.

I will be at a bachelor party this weekend so I will not be able to post Friday. I will try and post some World Cup thoughts Thursday but if not, I will be at a bar in New Orleans Friday morning cheering Sam's Army on. Go 'Merica.

Baseball Thoughts

Another lost season kept me away in August. Hey, at least it lasted that long. Here is what you may have missed.

-The Reds need Scott Rolen to stay healthy. I know that is like asking PacMan Jones to stay out of strip clubs or Brett Farve to stay retired but it is true. The Reds are 11-4 when he has played, all 4 losses coming to playoff contending LA and Colorado. If he stays healthy next year, an enormous if, the Reds could be good. Unfortunately, here are his total games played the last 5 years: 56, 142, 112, 115, 102, and probably about 120 this year. He also turns 35 around opening day next year. I hope he stays healthy because his OPS+ has still been 107 and 118 the past 2 years and his defense is an A-, much better then anyone playing third since Chris Sabo. I am not optimistic he can stay off the DL though.

-Dusty has completed his dismantling of the once promising starting staff. Volquez had Tommy John Surgery and is done until late 2010. Cueto is on the DL and has not been himself since May. Harang, who was ruined last season in the 18 inning San Diego game (the game that revived this blog), was ruined on almost the exact same day this season when Dusty sent him out after a rain delay of over two hours in order to get one more out, and thus a win. He was 5-4 with a 3.36 ERA at that point. After, he was 1-10 with a 4.80 ERA and his OPS against has jumped 100 points. Awesome. Now he is done for the season because his appendix burst. I bet he did it to himself in order to avoid Dusty's torture. If Homer Bailey is smart, he will lay low until Dusty is gone or he is a free agent. Save yourself Homer!

-The Reds field a minor league team every day. Currently, the Reds are starting 2 players that would actual start on a contending team, Votto and Phillips. The other 6 are bench/role players or rookies who have potential. Dusty loves role players and cast offs. Reminds him of where he will be next year. If you were the manager and the season was clearly lost, wouldn't you play the rookies to let them learn? Wouldn't any sane person? You would think. But you would be wrong. Dusty played Willy Taveras and his 45 OPS+ at the top of the order up until he got hurt. Alex Gonzalez and his 43 OPS+ continued to play and bat second until he was traded. Now that they are gone, Dusty has been forced to play Janish, a defensive whiz who is starting to hit better after Dusty sat him for all but 3 games in July and killed any confidence he had, and Drew Stubbs, who is another defensive whiz and should start everyday in 2010. Other then that, it is pretty boring. Injuries have been everywhere. I'm sure that is what Dusty will blame. Good teams overcome them, bad teams blame them. Guess which one the Reds are?

-There is still a chance the Reds could get to 4th, or even third place. They currently sit 3 games out of 4th and 4.5 games out of third. They have 6 games remaining against the Pirates and 6 against Houston. Take 9 of those 12 and it could happen. Lose and maybe Dusty will get fired. Then again, maybe not.

Another post later on the return of football.

Took a bad turn in June

Finally that month is over. The Reds limped through it. Now they face a pretty daunting July and unless the offense improves, it will be the nail in the coffin.

Thanks to a crappy division, the season isn't over yet. The Reds are only 2 games behind the Cardinals for second and 4 behind the Brewers for first. Somehow they are still leading the Cubs by half a game. Shows how bad they have been. Let me show you the gory June stats first, then I will show that the upcoming schedule makes it likely that the Reds will plummet if they continue at this pace.

June stats

-As a team, the Reds went .229/.300/.349/.649 for an OPS+ of 78 and good enough for dead last in the majors. Let me repeat. DEAD LAST IN ALL OF BASEBALL. To put it in perspective, Alex Gonzalez has a career OPS+ of 78. The entire team was a weak hitting SS for an entire month. Wily Taveras had an OPS of .375. That should be is on base percentage, NOT his on base percentage PLUS slugging. Alex Gonzalez was .488. Hariston was .537. Hernandez was .597. You get the picture. Those are Corey Patterson numbers and loyal readers know how I feel about Corey.

-How did they go 11-15 in June? I wondered the same thing. It wasn't really the starting pitching either. Their ERA was at the bottom of the pack at 13th in the NL and WHIP was 15th. Arroyo had a 6.82 ERA and the Maloney/Volquez/Bailey combo was about 6.00. The relief pitchers were certainly an asset, posting the 2nd best WHIP and 4th best ERA in the NL. That has been the strength for the past few years. Another big factor, defense. According to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) the Reds are the 5th best defensive team in baseball(#2 in the NL). Last season they were 27(#15 in NL). But defense can only go so far in one month. What is the real reason? It all came down to the schedule. The teams they played just weren't good. Cleveland, Washington, and Atlanta are pretty bad. The best team they faced were the 4 games over .500 Blue Jays. Unfortunatly, those easy days are over.

July schedule

-The Reds have 2 more games against lowly Arizona. Need to win those because it may be a while until the Reds get another one. The final 10 games before the All-Star break are home for 3 with STL, 4 @Phi, 3@NYM. All 3 of those teams are over .500. After the break, the Reds host Mil for 4, go for 3 @LAD, then 3 @ CHC. Those teams are a combined 25 games over .500. The last games of the month consist of 4 at home to the Padres, the team that swept the Reds in May and one against the surging Rockies. WOW. If the team from June plays those 27 games as they did the previous 26, they won't go 11-15. They will go 2-25.

-the only reason for optimism is this: Votto is back and rounding into form. Edwin is on the brink of a return any day now. Volquez is back throwing after a setback and could rejoin after the All-Star game. Also, could they really hit any worse? I don't know if it is possible and I shutter to think what it would look like if they did. The easy part is over for the Reds and the made-or-break month is upon us. Let's get the starting pitchers back on track and the bats on fire. Otherwise, it turns into "Wait till next year."

Turning point

The Reds have reached a turning point in the season. They have managed to stay at .500 while Votto, Edwin, and Volquez have been on the DL. Now it seems that Votto will return tonight, Edwin is rehabbing in Louisville and Volquez should be ready in 2 weeks. Now is the time for the Reds to make a run. They have a series at Toronto, at Cleveland and home to Arizona. 6-3 is the goal for those 9 games because the final 10 before the All-Star game will be tough. The Reds host 3 against St. Louis, then travel for 4 at Philly and 3 at the Mets. A 5-5 split would be great but very difficult. This makes the next 9 a necessity. Let's review what has happened the past few weeks:

Positives:

Ryan Hanigan. Since Joey began to have his issues in May, Ryan has started 30 games and has put up a .312/.397/.385/.782 with only 9 K's in 109 PA's. He seems to be improving and is at the top of the NL in almost all rookie categories. This should ensure him more playing time once Votto returns and Hernandez is available. Not so fast. Dusty seems to think Hernandez will go back behind the plate and Hanigan will be on the bench. Awesome. Dusty does it again.

Bullpen. The bullpen has been amazing. Weathers, Rhodes, and Cordero have been unhittable. Masset showed he is human by allowing a few runs but he has still been well above average. These 4 guys have allowed the Reds to win some close games that, in years past, the Reds would have blown. It is nice to not be nervous in the 7th-9th innings.

Negatives:

So many let me just run through them quick. The big 3 of Taveras (44 OPS+), Gonzalez (45 OPS+), and Rosales (51 OPS+). That is 3 terrible bats in the lineup almsot every day. 38% of the lineup is pitiful. How did they win any games? Cueto has given up 5 runs in the past 2 games including blowing a 5-0 lead against the White Sox Saturday night. Matt Maloney was a nice story but in his 3 starts he is 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA and 73 ERA+.

Outlook: The Reds have reached the turning point. They are 34-34, 17-17 at home and 17-17 on the road. They either turn it on and get 4 or 5 games above .500 and in place to make a run at the postseason or they falter, lose 4 or 5 in a row and become sellers after the All-Star break. I hope getting healthy will lead to a run.

Opening Day is here

Finally, baseball is back.

The Reds begin the season today as they host the New York Mets and Johan Santana. Should be a good game. Nothing says baseball like 40 degrees and snow showers. Just what you need to shake off the rust from 5 months off.

The roster was set yesterday with Micah Owings winning the battle for the #5 starter and Homer Bailey being sent down to AAA. Tough break for the kid but Micah has more experience and it was encouraging that both pitched well. Giving Homer a bit of a break to keep his innings down is not a bad thing either.

In the field, Laynce Nix and Darnell McDonald made the team, both a bit of surprise. Johnny Gomes played excellent but was optioned to AAA, meaning he could become a free agent or go down to Louisville. McDonald made the team because he can play CF and with Willy Taveras sick, it was more out of necessity. Paul Janish is the backup SS, mainly due to his very good glove and not his 36 OPS+ bat.

Here is the opening day lineup, with McDonald in there because of Willy's sickness:

Hariston, LF
McDonald, CF
Votto, 1B
Phillips, 2B
Bruce, RF
Encarnacion, 3B
Hernandez, C
Gonzalez, SS
Harang, P

I think the Reds will lose this game because, well, they are facing Johan and their offense is pretty bad. I am interested to see how the defense is because that was one of the main areas of so-called improvement this offseason.

I will post later today with my predictions for the divisions and playoffs.

Here's to another great season. Go Reds! Fire Dusty!

Reds links

-Well the first two spring training games are in the books and the Reds have actually scored a few runs. They beat the Rays 7-0 yesterday then fell to the Twins 10-4 today. Things will change soon when some of our best leave for the World Baseball Classic. Here is the list of players.

-Chris Dickerson is filming videos for USA Today. He seems like a smart kid who reads Marketing Strategy books and started his own website for environmentally conscious players. Hey, at least it is better then being a drunk, degenerate athlete.

-SI.com takes a look at the Reds and compares them to the 2008 Rays. There are some similarities. Jonny Gomes comes to mind. Other then that, I don't really see it but CHONE projections has the Reds at 82-80. I would take that for now and that is much smarter then me.

-Maybe Taveras will be better then some think. I think he will be better then most think. He can't be any worse then this man.

Back with more tomorrow and probably another Get the Reds Out.

Outfield

The final position breakdown is here. In the past, this was one of our strengths. This season, not so much. But hey, we got rid of the lazy, homer hitting, on-base machines in the middle of the lineup and are faster and scrappier. So what if we don't score any runs. At least we are a bunch of Johnny Try-Hards who know how to bunt and run out groundball outs. Now if Dusty can teach them to swing first and never take walks, the transformation will be complete. Let's move on before I start throwing things and break it down by position:

RF
Starter - Jay Bruce (.254/.314/.453. OPS+ of 96)

He turns 22 around opening day and will be at this position for years to come. Hailed as one of the best prospects in the game going into last season, he did not disappoint. His scorching start cooled as teams saw him a second and third time but he adjusted. After tearing up May and June with a .297/.348/.426, his July and August numbers went down to .239/.277/.421. After Griffey left and gave him RF as his permanent spot in September, he hit .256/.351/.573 which is amazing for a 21 year old rookie. I think his struggle in the middle months was inevitable because teams were adjusting to him but the way he came back in September was encouraging. He learned what it was like to be a major leaguer and having to change your approach to be successful. I expect a breakout year for him now that he has an everyday job and everyday position. He should go .275/.335/.470 with 25 HR's and 95 RBI's while joining Votto and Phillips as the young leaders of the team.

CF
Starter - Willy Taveras (.251/.308/.296, OPS+ of 56)
Backup - Jerry Hairston Jr.

Last season was rough for Willy. He regressed in every hitting category from his '07 .320/.367/.382 but managed to steal more bases. He went 68 for 75 on the basepaths for an amazing 91%. Dusty plans on using him as the leadoff hitter, which is based purely on his SBs and discounts the fact that he doesn't get on base. He is moving from Coors to Great American which isn't much of a change and if he can just get on base, things could be good. His defense is average so there is not a loss there and he is still fairly young having just turned 27 on Christmas so improvment is not out of the question. I think he will benefit from the change of scenery and put up numbers closer to '07. If not there is always a replacement waiting.

LF
Starter - ?
Backup - ?

This is the biggest crapshoot on the team. The Reds spent the entire offseason looking for an everyday right-handed power bat to go here. I had an idea. The team looked into Jermaine Dye. In the end, nothing happened. Now the Reds have a bunch of guys, none of which is a everyday power hitting right-hander. Most see the front runner as Chris Dickerson. He did great in his late season call up going .304/.413/.608, OPS+ of 160. Of course that was in only 102 AB's and they were the best 102 AB's he has had at any professional level ever, so I am guessing he is not the second coming of Albert Pujols. He is left handed and his OPS fell by 200 points against left handers so he is not exactly what the Reds had in mind. He is still a 26 year old rookie who can improve and deserves a chance to play everyday sometime just so the Reds can see what they have. I think he will make the team and platoon with Hairston until he gets his feet wet or Hairston gets injured. The other players up for this spot are Jaque Jones, Johnny Gomes, Lance Nix, and Norris Hopper. The first 3 are non-roster invites and there is a reason. Hopper looked to be an up and comer until he missed almost all of last season with an injury. He hit .329/.379/.388 in his only extended major league appearance which was 307 AB's in 2007. Those numbers would be great at the top of the order if he is healthy and Taveras and/or Dickerson struggle or get hurt. I think Dickerson and Hopper make the club along with Hariston because of his versatility. That leaves one extra spot between the non-roster invites. I think it goes to Gomes because he is a right handed power bat. He doesn't hit for average or get on base so he is not an everyday player but he is a strong bat on the bench. I want him to make it for personal reasons. He brings a certain fire to the team. Also, he did something I think we all want to do, beat the crap out of the Red Sox:

The outfield should be Bruce, Taveras, and a platoon of Hairston/Hopper and Dickerson. Bruce is the only bat that would scare most teams but if the other two positions can improve and play at their best, the outfield will at least be adequate. Any struggles or injuries and the outfield will turn into Bruce and 2 automatic outs. The defense should be improved without Griffey and Dunn, but that is pretty much a given.

This concludes out look at the Reds by positions. Games begin tomorrow with the Reds taking on the Devil Rays. The run to the 2009 pennant begins then. For the Devil Rays, of course.

End of Bowl Season; Reds signings

Well a new year is upon us. My resolution: to write on the blog more. Why? Because I am fed up with college football and the only good thing to happen in college basketball has been this:



Well the final Bowl game is tonight and as I predicted it is an overrated SEC team against Oklahoma. I picked an overrated SEC team to win and I think that will happen. Florida, who lost at home to a 9 win Ole Miss team, gets to play for the title instead of USC, who lost to a 9 win Oregon State team two days before. Utah goes undefeated, beating that same Oregon State team along with No. 12 TCU and No. 14 BYU before trouncing the almighty Alabama in the Crimson Tide's backyard, yet gets no shot at a title. Why do these teams have no shot? Because they don't play in the almighty SEC. That being said, Oklahoma was the second best Big 12 team and should be able to hang with Florida but, in the end, Florida will pull it out because the home team usually wins a close game and this game is being played 300 miles from Gainsville and 1,500 miles from Norman. Sure is nice that the SEC gets the benefit of the doubt from the pollsters and computers even though they aren't a top 2 team(LSU 2003, Florida 2006, LSU 2007, Florida 2008) and gets to play the title game in their own backyard almost every year(LSU 2003, LSU 2007, Florida 2008). No matter what happens tonight, the real national champion will not be crowned because USC, Utah, and Texas have just as much a right to call themselves champions as tonights winner.

As for the Reds, I missed a few things during the holiday break. The Reds signed Willy Taveras to a 2 year deal worth $2.25 million this year and $4 million next year. He is a speedy CF, still fairly young at 27, and has shown signs of being a good leadoff man. His OPS in 2007 was .367 before falling to .308 last season. If he can go back to his 07 season, he would be a huge upgrade over previous leadoff/CF because his defense is pretty good and his baserunning is excellant. He was 68 for 75 last year which is the most steal in the league as well as one of the highest averages at 91%. Either way, he is better than Corey Patterson who has somehow gotten another chance at playing baseball, this time with the Nationals.

The other move was a resigning of Jerry Hairston on a one year deal. I also like this move because it is only a 1 year deal and he can play a variety of position, when healthy. He can play SS if A-Gon continues his 3 year rehab as well as CF and LF if we don't find another bat.

The righthand hitting LF search continues and things aren't looking too good. Milton Bradley is headed to Chicago, Pat Burrell is in Tampa, and it looks like the Red Sox will take Rocco Baldelli. That leaves only one available player, Manny Ramirez. He is still out there meaning his price has to have come down to around 20 million, something the Reds could probably afford but won't be able too because baseball is not meant for everyone to compete, only for big markets to compete every year with a random team thrown in to spice it up. I have seen all the stats about how many teams have made the playoffs/WS in the past 20 years but I give you this one, only once in the past 15 years has a team in the bottom half of payroll actually won the WS. That team was the Marlins. Goes to show you that those who can spend and do spend, win the WS. Those that don't have the means, have to hope for a miracle run to the playoffs or WS but don't have a realistic shot at actual winning the trophy. So, as pitchers and catchers begin to report in a month, remember that only 15 teams have a chance to hoist the trophy. What a great game.