Starting Pitching Breakdown

The Reds finally made a decision on the 5th starter and it was a surprise. They went with the 2009 first round pick Mike Leake. He has never pitched in the minors. This should be interesting. Let's look at the staff separated into 2 distinct groups:

The Old Guys

Aaron Harang, 32 (6-14, 4.23 ERA, 1.411 WHIP, 102 ERA+)
Bronson Arroyo, 33 (15-13, 3.84 ERA, 1.266 WHIP, 112 ERA+)

After back-to-back 16 win seasons, Harang has had back-to-back 6 win seasons. His performance has not been as bad as the wins suggest but it has been a little worse. The big win seasons saw his K/BB ratio close to 4. The past 2 years it has been close to 3. In order to turn it around he will need to increase strikeouts and cut down on walks. Sounds simple but is very difficult when you are 32 years old and have over 1300 innings on the arm. I expect him to rebound and win a dozen games or so with an ERA about 3.70. He also needs to stay healthy and get back to pitching 200 innings. Dusty is the main reason for this as I talked about here and here. If Dusty took his hands off him for a full season he could be the top of the rotation guy he used to be.

Bronson does the the same thing every year. It isn't spectacular, it isn't horrendous, it just is. He always throws 200 innings and wins double digit games while losing almost the same. He has a few brilliant efforts, a few catastrophes and a bunch of mediocre outings. One red flag with him is his K/BB ratio dipped below 2. He had been in the mid 2s for the past 3 seasons so he will need to improve on that or he will struggle. Most of this is due to his K/9 rate going from 7.3 to 5.2. That is 2 balls in play that normally would have been strikeouts and over the course of a season, those add up. His BB/9 decreased a little so he will need to continue that while improving his strikeouts. I think he will boost his K/BB back up over 2 and keep cranking out 13-15 wins and 8-12 losses while throwing 200 innings.

The Young Guns

Johnny Cueto, 24 (11-11, 4.41 ERA, 1.360 WHIP, 97 ERA+)
Homer Bailey, 23 (8-5, 4.53 ERA, 1.474 WHIP, 95 ERA+)
Mike Leake, 22 (College and Arizona Fall League)

Johnny now has over 340 innings in the big leagues and seems ready to take his place as a solid starter. Last season he was able to drop his H/9, HR/9, and BB/9 from his rookie season. His K/9 also fell slightly but he kept his K/BB over 2. Still very young at 24, he should continue to improve and eventually take over at the top of the rotation if the Reds trade Harang, Arroyo, or both. He will also be a great help with the young Cuban Aroldis Chapman, another young Latin trying to make it in the big leagues with the Reds. I expect a dozen wins and a better ERA and WHIP while improving his K/9 rate. Let's hope Dusty hasn't torn his arm up yet like Volquez. Kind of feels like a ticking time bomb.

Homer Bailey is looking to build of a great finish to last season when he rolled through the final 6 weeks posting a 6-1 record and 1.70 ERA. Sure he faced some bad teams but they were still major leaguers. He has nearly 200 innings and has shown maturity in spring training by pitching well, working hard, and losing the chip on his shoulder he had with the media his first few years. His K/BB ration rose from 1 to 1.6 last season and if he can get that over 2 he will be just fine as the #4 starter. He doesn't turn 24 until May so he is still very young and has plenty of room to grow. I can't wait to see him up in Cincy on a regular basis and I think he will be the breakout star of the Reds rotation, more so then Chapman who still has a lot to learn, baseball and otherwise.

I have no idea what to expect from Leake. I have never seen him pitch but Walt trusts him enough to give him a shot. Dusty is licking his chops at a chance to give another young guy a bunch of innings. To learn more I suggest reading up on him. Here is Cnai.com's take on him getting the spot. Rob Neyer weighs in here. I'm sure more will be written since he won't actually start until April 11 thanks to an extra off day that allows Harang and extra start. I am happy the Reds went with the best pitcher, even if it may cost some money, but still a little worried at a young arm in placed into Dusty's hands. Let's hope this works out but don't be surprised with a DL trip in May or June.

I really like the 5 starters. The two old guys are horses who will take the ball every 5 days and give you above average outings. The young guys can be brilliant and frustrating but there is plenty of room for each to improve. I expect starting pitching to be a strength this season and in the future. There is also Chapman waiting to come up in May or June if something opens due to poor performance or injury. Great to have all these great arms ready to go in Cincinnati.

Almost made it to August

Well the Reds managed to hang around until nearly August. Not bad. Usually June is the last month to care about the team but this time they managed to make it a little longer. While still only 5.5 games back, they sit in 5th place. They would need 4 teams to tank worse then they have already and that ain't happening. Not long ago I wrote that the easy part of the schedule was over and they would need to pick it up or be left in the dust. That was before Albert Pujols ended the Reds season with one swing of the bat. Since he hit that grand slam, the Reds are 5-12. Barring a 6 game winning streak, the Reds will once again be sellers at the July 31st trading deadline. Maybe next year.

If they are trading players, here is who they should get rid of:

David Weathers-He has been above-average since joining the team which is better then most thought. His last 4 seasons with the Reds he has put up an ERA+ of 132, 130, 139, 149. Would be a nice get for any contending team looking for an extra arm in the bullpen. I wouldn't mind keeping him around but he is a free agent at the end of the year so we might as well get something for him now.

Arthur Rhodes-Has an amazing 264 ERA+ and 0.99 WHIP. Left handers are hitting a ridiculous .118/.193/.137 for an OPS+ of -5. That is unbelievable. Any team needing a LH reliever would be hard pressed to find one better then Arthur. Should fetch some nice prospects.

Bronson Arroyo-Always thrown around in trade talks, his recent scoreless streak has certainly helped. Any team needing a reliable starter would want him. You know what you are getting and he does have postseason experience. The only hangup could be his salary which has 2 more years at 10 million per. A big market team wouldn't flinch but mid to small market teams can't add that money. Depends on how desperate teams get.

Aaron Harang-I keep hearing his name but I don't think it will actually happen. He is a staple here in Cincinnati and is making a nice chunk of change at 12 million per year. It would take a strong offer to make a deal and I don't see any team that desperate right now.

As for the rest, Cordero makes too much money at 12 million per year and none of our position players are good and available. Maybe Hernandez before he got hurt but not now. I imagine the Reds will move one of the relievers by July 31 and maybe Arroyo after. You have to remember the July 31st deadline is a mirage. Players can be traded until August 31st if they clear waivers and with this economy, most non-superstar players will clear. Dunn and Griffey were both traded after July 31st last season. Look for more movement in August. Until then, let's whip the Cubs this weekend just to shove it those obnoxious fans' faces.

Took a bad turn in June

Finally that month is over. The Reds limped through it. Now they face a pretty daunting July and unless the offense improves, it will be the nail in the coffin.

Thanks to a crappy division, the season isn't over yet. The Reds are only 2 games behind the Cardinals for second and 4 behind the Brewers for first. Somehow they are still leading the Cubs by half a game. Shows how bad they have been. Let me show you the gory June stats first, then I will show that the upcoming schedule makes it likely that the Reds will plummet if they continue at this pace.

June stats

-As a team, the Reds went .229/.300/.349/.649 for an OPS+ of 78 and good enough for dead last in the majors. Let me repeat. DEAD LAST IN ALL OF BASEBALL. To put it in perspective, Alex Gonzalez has a career OPS+ of 78. The entire team was a weak hitting SS for an entire month. Wily Taveras had an OPS of .375. That should be is on base percentage, NOT his on base percentage PLUS slugging. Alex Gonzalez was .488. Hariston was .537. Hernandez was .597. You get the picture. Those are Corey Patterson numbers and loyal readers know how I feel about Corey.

-How did they go 11-15 in June? I wondered the same thing. It wasn't really the starting pitching either. Their ERA was at the bottom of the pack at 13th in the NL and WHIP was 15th. Arroyo had a 6.82 ERA and the Maloney/Volquez/Bailey combo was about 6.00. The relief pitchers were certainly an asset, posting the 2nd best WHIP and 4th best ERA in the NL. That has been the strength for the past few years. Another big factor, defense. According to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) the Reds are the 5th best defensive team in baseball(#2 in the NL). Last season they were 27(#15 in NL). But defense can only go so far in one month. What is the real reason? It all came down to the schedule. The teams they played just weren't good. Cleveland, Washington, and Atlanta are pretty bad. The best team they faced were the 4 games over .500 Blue Jays. Unfortunatly, those easy days are over.

July schedule

-The Reds have 2 more games against lowly Arizona. Need to win those because it may be a while until the Reds get another one. The final 10 games before the All-Star break are home for 3 with STL, 4 @Phi, 3@NYM. All 3 of those teams are over .500. After the break, the Reds host Mil for 4, go for 3 @LAD, then 3 @ CHC. Those teams are a combined 25 games over .500. The last games of the month consist of 4 at home to the Padres, the team that swept the Reds in May and one against the surging Rockies. WOW. If the team from June plays those 27 games as they did the previous 26, they won't go 11-15. They will go 2-25.

-the only reason for optimism is this: Votto is back and rounding into form. Edwin is on the brink of a return any day now. Volquez is back throwing after a setback and could rejoin after the All-Star game. Also, could they really hit any worse? I don't know if it is possible and I shutter to think what it would look like if they did. The easy part is over for the Reds and the made-or-break month is upon us. Let's get the starting pitchers back on track and the bats on fire. Otherwise, it turns into "Wait till next year."

Starting Pitchers

For the first time in over a decade, the Reds left their starting pitching staff in tact. Last season our starters had an ERA of 4.97. Remove the revolving 5th starter(Fogg, Bailey, Belisle, Ramirez, Thompson, and Pettyjohn) and his 7.11 ERA and the other 4 returners (Harang, Cueto, Volquez and Arroyo) had an ERA of 4.37. That is not half bad and would have been in the top half of the NL before factoring in the bandbox called Great American Ballpark. Those 4 should be the cornerstone of one of the best 1-4 staffs in the NL and should give us a quality start two-thirds of the time.

The success of the Reds will come down to who wins the 5th spot and how that pitcher fares. Last season the 5th starter was 4-21. Change that number to 11-14 and the Reds become a .500 team. I expect Harang to bounce back and have a good season, which should offset any bumps in the road for Volquez and Cueto, who should both struggle in their second season pitching to the NL. Arroyo will do his 200 innings and 12 wins like always. As the 5th starter goes, so goes the team. He goes 11-14 while the top 4 stay the same, they are .500. He goes 14-11 with the top 4 staying the same, they are an 84 win team. He goes 15-10 with the top 4 inproving, they could get to 88 wins and have a chance at the division or WC with some help. I know its a long shot but everyone is a contender in February and March. Jeff Passan thinks we have a chance to compete with the Cubs(and like myself is not a Dusty fan). The 5th starter will determine it.

The competition will likely be between these four pitchers:

Micah Owings-Centerpiece of the Adam Dunn trade, he has started 45 major league games and has put up a 14-17 record in 257.1 innings with a 4.97 ERA. Struggled last year and had his pitching year cut short due to an injury but should be fully healed for spting training. He is 26 and has by far the most major league experience of any other contender. The other great thing is he can swing the bat. Last season he served as a pitch hitter for the Reds in September and managed to go 2-4 with 3 RBI's. He has put up solid batting numbers in his 116 AB's with a .319/.355/.552 and OPS+ of 126. That is a small sample sive but automatically makes him the 6th or 7th best hitter on the team. Can still be used as a pitch hitter late. His job to lose and I think he wins it.

Odds to job: 3-2

Homer Bailey-Once a top 10 prospect who some people are calling washed up at 22 years old. Those people are idiots and don't listen to them. He is still very young and, if he gets his head on straight, could break out and have a huge year. He has pitched well in AAA but has not been able to translate that success to Cincinnati. I chalk it up to being young and nervous. If he can make the club out of spring training and spend some time with Harang and Arroyo to learn the ropes, I think he could be very good.

Odds of winning job: 2-1

Daryl Thompson-bursted on the scene last summer with a great debut in Yankee Stadium. His is only 23 years old and only started 10 games above AA, 3 of those with the Reds. He should probably spend most of the year in Louisville and be called up later in the summer if there is an injury or trade. I like his potential but unless he throws lights out he needs some more seasoning. No need to rush his development when we have plenty of other viable, and probably better candidates.

Odds of winning job: 8-1

Ramon Ramirez-26 year old who probably looked the best out of the contenders last season, starting 4 games and pitching 27 innings with a 2.67 ERA. More mature then the other contenders and we know how Dusty loves older players. Can pitch out of the bullpen so if he were to lose the 5th starter spot he could make the team as a long reliever/spot starter. Still needs to Wow people to win the job because he is close to a finished product and would take time away from developing one of the other, younger contenders.

Odds of winning job: 10-1

The way I see it, Owings should get it unless some other pitcher pitches so well they take it away. Last year, Volquez pitched better then expected and Cueto blew everyone away to earn his spot, so it could happen. We will find out over the next 6 weeks.