Third Base breakdown

Sorry this wasn't posted Friday. I drank and watched basketball for 10 hours. It was a glorious day right up until Louisville crapped on the floor.

Scott Rolen (.305/.368/.455/.823/.117, 11HR, 67 RBI)

The key phrase always used with Rolen is "when healthy." When healthy, he is a solid, everyday player. When healthy, he can hit for power, hit for average, and take a walk if needed. When healthy, he is the cornerstone of the infield making plays few others in the game can make and winning gold-gloves. Unfortunately, it keeps coming back to health.

The past 5 years he has played 56, 142, 112, 115, 128 games for an average of 111 games, or 2/3 of a season. If that average were closer to 150, he would be considered a top 25 player. Last season, almost immediately after he was acquired he was hit in the head and suffered a concussion causing him to miss 16 days. There is nothing he could have done about it, other then duck sooner, but nonetheless these things seem to follow him. He is like a third base version of Ken Griffey Jr.

The Reds extended his contract for 2 additional years in exchange for him taking a pay cut this year. That money was used to sign some Cuban, which looks to be good, but Rolen's chance of being a healthy contributor when the deal ends in 2013 is unlikely. At least the Reds seem to be trying to win now.

The other thing Rolen supposedly brings is clubhouse leadership. He is a 13-year veteran with 32 games of postseason experience including a world series win in 2006 with some team a few hours west. He is a big, commanding presence and could really help some of our young superstars like Bruce and Votto.

If he stays healthy, he can bat behind Votto, giving him some protection, and give the Reds a right hand power bat they have been lacking for years. If he gets hurt again, he will be an expensive DL player. One of the Reds best prospects is Juan Francisco, a young third basemen who can crush the ball. He also happens to strike out a lot and doesn't walk, not a good combination. In his cup of coffee last September, he did pretty well but it was only a few dozen at bats. He could make the team as a backup third basemen/left fielder or he could also be sent to Louisville to learn plate discipline and wait on a Rolen injury. The likely everyday backup is Aaron Miles, who can play basically any position but none very well.

No matter what happens, this position is an upgrade over Edwin Encarnacion and his "potential" that was never realized.

Will have another post this week about the crazy weekend of college basketball and maybe one after watching Chapman pitch tonight on FSN Ohio. He should start pitching in the 6th or about 5:30

Turning point

The Reds have reached a turning point in the season. They have managed to stay at .500 while Votto, Edwin, and Volquez have been on the DL. Now it seems that Votto will return tonight, Edwin is rehabbing in Louisville and Volquez should be ready in 2 weeks. Now is the time for the Reds to make a run. They have a series at Toronto, at Cleveland and home to Arizona. 6-3 is the goal for those 9 games because the final 10 before the All-Star game will be tough. The Reds host 3 against St. Louis, then travel for 4 at Philly and 3 at the Mets. A 5-5 split would be great but very difficult. This makes the next 9 a necessity. Let's review what has happened the past few weeks:

Positives:

Ryan Hanigan. Since Joey began to have his issues in May, Ryan has started 30 games and has put up a .312/.397/.385/.782 with only 9 K's in 109 PA's. He seems to be improving and is at the top of the NL in almost all rookie categories. This should ensure him more playing time once Votto returns and Hernandez is available. Not so fast. Dusty seems to think Hernandez will go back behind the plate and Hanigan will be on the bench. Awesome. Dusty does it again.

Bullpen. The bullpen has been amazing. Weathers, Rhodes, and Cordero have been unhittable. Masset showed he is human by allowing a few runs but he has still been well above average. These 4 guys have allowed the Reds to win some close games that, in years past, the Reds would have blown. It is nice to not be nervous in the 7th-9th innings.

Negatives:

So many let me just run through them quick. The big 3 of Taveras (44 OPS+), Gonzalez (45 OPS+), and Rosales (51 OPS+). That is 3 terrible bats in the lineup almsot every day. 38% of the lineup is pitiful. How did they win any games? Cueto has given up 5 runs in the past 2 games including blowing a 5-0 lead against the White Sox Saturday night. Matt Maloney was a nice story but in his 3 starts he is 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA and 73 ERA+.

Outlook: The Reds have reached the turning point. They are 34-34, 17-17 at home and 17-17 on the road. They either turn it on and get 4 or 5 games above .500 and in place to make a run at the postseason or they falter, lose 4 or 5 in a row and become sellers after the All-Star break. I hope getting healthy will lead to a run.

Mets on verge of sweep

Well the first 2 games were interesting. Opening day went as I thought, good pitching, no offense and a 2-1 loss. The second game looked like the old Reds. Score a bunch of runs, give them back thanks to bad defense, then leave runs out there thanks to double plays and bad base running. I thought Dusty preached good base running and defense. That is why we got rid of our home-run, on base machine Adam Dunn. Sorry Dusty. It didn't work. We pissed away a good hitting day because of an error by Gonzalez, a non-error by Bruce that led to 2 extra runs, and a base running error. Not to mention some bad pitching by Mike Lincoln.

Let me breakdown the good and bad so far:

POSITIVES
-Joey Votto's bat. He has been great and is hitting the ball very hard. 4-8 with a homer including a hit and a walk against Johan Santana, the best pitcher in the NL. He seems to have improved off his unbelieveable rookie year. I think the WBC really helped him. He got to hang out with Morneau and Bay for team Canada and learn about hitting. Also, playing in that playoff atmosphere has him ready to experiece that in the big leagues. Unfortuneatly. it will probably be for Toronto in a few years once the Reds trade him there.

-Brandon Phillips' patience. Don't look know because you may jinx it but BP has decided he doesn't have to swing at everything. He has walked 3 times in the first 2 games which is amazing for a player who has yet to walk 40 times in 162 games. Keep it up.

-Edwin Encanacion's patience. I can't comment on his bat seeing as how he is 0-5 but he has managed to keep it on his shoulder enough to draw 4 walks. Why the Mets have walked him when it is clear he is struggling to make solid contact is beyond me.

NEGATIVES
-Dusty Baker. You knew this one was coming. He put in Laynce Nix and Darnell McDonald before Wily Taveras when Wily was clearly healthy enough to play. He legged out a triple then scored on a sac fly. Doesn't sound like someone who is too sick to play. Letting those other 2 swing a bat when a capable, better player sits on the bench is inexcusable. Then again, so is allowing Carlos Beltran and his 118 career OPS+ to hit with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1st base open. WALK HIM and let your great D turn the double play. Instead, Beltran singled up the middle for 2 runs, the 2 runs the Mets needed to win the game. Well done Dusty.

-Reds pitching control. 7 walks opening day, 7 walks last night. Granted, the Mets are a patient team but walking nearly a batter an inning is terrible. I know Dusty thinks it clogs the bases so he probably encourages walks but it doesn't clog anything. Only when it brings up the pitcher or creates a double play does it make even a little bit of sense. The Reds pitchers need to find the strike zone and find it now or it could be a long season.

The Mets go for the sweep this afternoon which shouldn't be to hard thanks to an injury to the statue that is Jerry Hairston. His totally foreseeable injury forces Darnell McDonald into the lineup again. Darnell is a 30 year old journeyman outfielder with a grand total of 45 ab's in the majors. He is not good at baseball. Glad he could start 2 of the first 3 games for the Reds instead of someone like Gary Sheffield or Drew Stubbs. Gary has his fielding limitations but can still hit and Stubbs has never been in the big leagues bit has shown promise and deserves a shot. Either one would be an improvement over McDonald and both cost the same amount of money. I guess Dusty felt that after trading journeyman Jeff Keppinger he needed McDonald to fill the "trys hard but can't really play baseball" void. Too bad David Eckstien wasn't available.

Infield

The positional breakdown has now moved into the field. The Reds infield is fairly set with the only variable being injuries and Dusty Baker's stupidity. These two are very similar because they can be unpredictable and cause great anger to Reds fans everywhere. Let's hope the injuries don't creep up because Dusty's ignorance is unavoidable and will probably be enough to drive most fans to drinking. I have already started. Here is how the infield breaks down by position:

C
Starter: Ramon Hernandez (.257/.308/.406, OPS+ of 86)
Backup: Ryan Hanigan (.271/.367/.365, OPS+ of 91 in only 85 AB's)

In the offseason the Reds made one trade. That trade sent oft-injured and useless Ryan Freel to Baltimore for the oft-aloof and useless Ramon Hernandez. Seems like a case of both guys needing a change of scenery. Hernandez was criticized last season for seeming disinterested and not trying his hardest(Adam Dunn behind the plate). This may have had to do with the fact that Baltimore's best prospect was goign to take his spot behind the plate very soon. He still managed to put up pretty good numbers in the toughest division in baseball. Instead of facing 4 of the best rotations in baseball(Tor, NYY, Bos, TB) he gets to feast on some of the worst (Pit, Mil, Hou). I would also hope that a new team with great young Latin talent would get him excited about playing again. Not to mention our manager and his ability to get the best out of players. If he can improve to a .270/.320/.420 he would be the best catcher the Reds have had since Joe Oliver. Ok, that may be a stretch but I just wanted to give a shout out to the fromer World Series Hero. Hanigan played well in his September callup and is a much better defensive catcher then Hernandez. He will need to show he can hit everyday in the majors before he takes over the job. A year of backing up/spot starting would be a great way to break him in.

1B
Starter: Joey Votto (.297/.368/.506, OPS+ 124)

Last season's Rookie of the Year Runner-Up solidified his spot here for years to come. He started in a platoon with Scott Hatteberg (Thanks Dusty) but soon proved he needed to play every day. The key to him is that he was able to hit the same whether it was a RH or LH pitcher. He drew walks and hit to all fields which made him very dangerous. His defense was very up-and-down, mostly down, but he improved as the year went on and will hopefully continue that. He is only 25 and should be a staple of the Reds for a long time. Or at least until he gets too expensive and moves to a team that has money.

2B
Starter: Brandon Phillips (.261/.312/.422, OPS+ of 92)

Brandon's stats declined a little last season from his OPS+ of 105 in 2007. This is partly because he was moved to cleanup hitter and asked to hit homeruns. This didn't work. So what does Dusty do? Put him back at #4 this season. Brilliant. He OBP has never been great but last season he drew more walks in fewer AB's and cut down on his strikeouts. If he can return to '07 form, he could be good again. His defense is his strength. A former SS, his range in unbelieveable and, if not for a ridiculous '07 vote, he would have 2 straight gold gloves. He has been trying to become a leader, even attending the Reds caravan, something usually given to rookies because it takes away from time on the golf course. The question is whether his teammates will follow his lead. The best way to get the respect is to play and play well. Winning would also help.

SS
Starter: Alex Gonzalez (.272/.325/.468, OPS+ of 99 all in 2007)

Gonzalez is back and said to be 100% after missing all of last season after having knee surgery. '07 was a great year for him at the plate but his defense and playing time were down. This could have been because his child was suffering from medical issues and took his focus off the game. This season, everything is good and he should be ready to go from day one. If his defense returns to what it was a few years ago and his batting stays strong he could be one of the better SS's in the national league. Before the injury, he was widely regarded as one of the best defensive SS in the game. His '07 year at the plate was also one of his best. His health and return to form will be a major factor in whether the Reds can improve and possibly contend this season.

3B
Starter: Edwin Encancion (.251/.340/.466, OPS+ of 106)

Edwin regressed last year, both at the plate and in the field. His explanation for his struggles at the plate was kept trying to pull the ball out of the ballpark. This season he is going to try and spray it to all fields which should help his average. He still draws a ton of walks, much to Dusty's chagrin, and has the power to hit 20 HRs. Still young at 26 he should improve at the plate and on the field. His defense was atrocious last season but was pretty good the year before. I'm sure his actual ability is somewhere in the middle. He should continue to hit and put up a solid OBP. Improvement in the fielding and throwing would boost him to the top tier of NL 3rd basemen.

Utility IFs
All positions-Jeff Keppinger (.266/.310/.346, OPS+ of 70)
SS, 2B-Jerry Hairston Jr. (.326/.384/.487, OPS+ of 124)

Keppinger is a serviceable utility man who can hit when healthy. His numbers last season were down but that is partly because he was rushed back from a knee injury and played at less then 100%. At full strength his OPS+ is about 100 but his range at short is very limited. Hairston is in the battle for LF but can also play CF, SS, and 2B which makes him very useful. He can also serve as a leadoff hitter and the Reds were very good when he played last season. Of course, last season was a career year for him which he attributed to being 100% for most of it. Unfortunately that didn't last long because he was back on the DL a few times. The Reds will need him as a backup and spot starter and if he can stay healthy, a big if, he will be a solid RH bat off the bench.

One other player in the running for the utility spot is Wilkin Castilo, a player acquired in the Adam Dunn trade. He is only 24 and can play all IF spots including C. He received 30 AB's last September but will probably start the season back in the minors until his hitting improves or someone gets injured.

The infield is a solid hitting bunch with the corners being the strength and the middle being average to above-average. The defense, other then 2B, is a big question mark. Gonzalez is older and coming off a season ending injury and the corners are young and error-prone. If they improve and Gonzalez is back to his old form, they could be good. If they don't improve and Gonzalez is limited, the Reds will once again be at the bottom of the NL in terms of defense. Let's hope for the former and not the latter.