Nice little comeback

It looked bad their for a minute. The Reds went from solidly in first to 1.5 games back in a little over a week thanks to an awful 4 game sweep in Philly then a tough split with the Nationals. They were teetering on the edge of irrelevancy until a nice little weekend in Houston, taking 2 of 3 including one from noted Reds killer Roy Oswalt. Now they sit a half game back, with 3 in Milwaukee followed by a quick 3 game homestand against the Braves. Let's hope that is a battle of first place teams.

Scott Rolen has been hurt (shocking!) but is hopeful to return in the next few days. As usual, the Reds have struggled on offense without him, having been shutout in 4 of the 12 games. Cabrara continues to put up a ton of outs. Even with his solid week, his OBP is below .300 and he will probably get the second most PA's of anyone on the team, behind Brandon Phillips. I have a thought: Let's not give the guy who makes the most outs the second most opportunities to make an out. No wait, that is both logical and simple. Dusty can't handle that. Keep that "SS must bat second" mantra. Works great. The Reds have one of the top 5 players in baseball batting 3rd and a player with the least valuable bat in the NL. How many runs have they lost because of this idiotic lineup construction? How many wins? In a division and wild card that will come down to only a few games, it is a crime to give away runs like this. If you insist on playing Cabrara, bat him lower in the order. Not in front of one of the best players in the majors. Mark it down: If the Reds miss the playoffs by less then 3 games, this will be the reason, and it is all on Dusty.

A commentator mentioned that all I do is whine. I guess he expected a site called Fire Dusty Baker to be about hope, rainbows, and unicorns. Then again the commentator also called it a web log. He should have used "that twitters" and "the internets" just to round out the "Ways to sound like a total idiot when talking about technology" trifecta.

Anyway, since the Reds have been treading water, not much has been going on. Maybe a trade is about to happen or some other major news. Until then, I will be watching and hoping this team and overcome the giant obstacle in the manager's office and make the playoffs. Go Reds!

Reds keep Rolen

I must say I am shocked at how well the team has played since the debacle in Atlanta. I expected a slump and extended losing streak. I expected mental errors and poor fundamentals. None of that happened and I am starting to think it has something to do with a certain veteran infielder.

Scott Rolen is having his best season in 5 years and the rest of the team is feeding off him. His stat line is very impressive at .272/.341/.556/.897/134 for an above average, 35 year old thirdbasemen. The young guys see what he does and learn from it. Phillips has learned to take more walks, walking at a rate of 9.4% when his previous high was 6.8%. Joey Votto has improved his defense and has an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of 3.9. The next closest firstbaseman is 2.2. Bruce, who had been in a bit of a power slump until last night, hasn't let that bother him. He has put up .278/.379/.457/.836/121 while playing the second best rightfield according to UZR. Johny Gomes is have a career year. Drew Stubbs has turned it around after a terrible start. Janish and Hanigan have played so well that they could be starters at any time. And Cabrara has.....well he has some RBIs. Yeah. The big change the Reds made between last year at this time and now is Scott Rolen. Everyone talks about how seriously he takes his job and how much he works at his game. It seems to be working. As long as he is in the lineup, the team looks very confident. They are fun to watch, something that hasn't been true in recent years. So from everyone in Reds Country, thanks Scotty.

(Yeah, I am totally glossing over the fact that some of this may have to do with Dusty not sucking but I don't buy it. He still sucks. If you want to hear how great he is, you probably shouldn't visit a website entitled Fire Dusty Baker)

Reds April update

Well here we stand, 13-13, tied with the Cubs for second in the division, and 5 games behind the Cardinals. Mostly boring and average. Let's see the few things that have stood out, either good or bad.

The Good

Scott Rolen (.259/.337/.481/113 OPS+, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 8 BB/11 K) - He has stayed healthy, playing in 22 of 26 games. He has been solid in the middle of the order, hitting homers and taking a walk when he has to. His defense has been a little below average thus far according to UZR but it is still a small sample size and an improvement over anyone the Reds have had their in the past 5 years.

Joey Votto (.297/.420/.495/140 OPS+, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 20 BB/24 K) - He is always solid and continues to be one of the top 15 first baseman in baseball. His strikeouts are very high but he is hitting well and taking walks when necessary. His defense has been the best on the team thus far which only adds to his value. He is the best player on the team and if he can put a few of those strikeouts in play, he could really put up amazing numbers.

Mike Leake (2-0, 2.94 ERA, 150 ERA+, 22 K/16 BB, 1.307 WHIP, 33.2 IN) - He has been the biggest surprise of the young season. He barely made the team out of spring training but has been the Reds best pitcher by far. He walked 7 his first start and 5 the second but came in with only 4 total in his last 3 starts. The team has rallied around him and everyone has been raving about his mound presence. If Jason Heyward of the Braves wasn't anointed before the season, Mike would be in the running for Rookie of the Year.

The Bad

Aaron Harang (1-4, 6.68 ERA, 66 ERA+, 27 K/ 7 BB, 1.515 WHIP, 33.2 IN) - So much for being the ace of the staff. He has simply given up too many hits and too many runs. He is still getting no run support but even with ample support he would be having a bad season. He is always a trade candidate if the Reds become sellers this summer but no one wants him with those numbers. Let's hope for a turnaround in hist last 30 starts.

Drew Stubbs (.193/.292/.313/60 OPS+, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 7 SB, 11 BB/27 K) - Bad numbers from any player, especially your leadoff man. His main problem seems to be putting the ball in play. He can take a walk and steal bases but he has way too many strikeouts. If he put half those in play his average would jump into the .250 range and OBP into the .350 range, both good number for a leadoff man. He is still very young but will not be leading off much longer unless he turns it around in May.

Orlando Cabrara (.250/.288/.348/67 OPS+, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 7 BB/12 K) - This is the one that is really frustrating because his backup Janish is hitting very well and plays much better defense. Dusty likes it because of his RBI but that is 1% of the story. The other 99% say that Janish is a better, more patient hitter with a vastly superior glove. Free Janish!

Third Base breakdown

Sorry this wasn't posted Friday. I drank and watched basketball for 10 hours. It was a glorious day right up until Louisville crapped on the floor.

Scott Rolen (.305/.368/.455/.823/.117, 11HR, 67 RBI)

The key phrase always used with Rolen is "when healthy." When healthy, he is a solid, everyday player. When healthy, he can hit for power, hit for average, and take a walk if needed. When healthy, he is the cornerstone of the infield making plays few others in the game can make and winning gold-gloves. Unfortunately, it keeps coming back to health.

The past 5 years he has played 56, 142, 112, 115, 128 games for an average of 111 games, or 2/3 of a season. If that average were closer to 150, he would be considered a top 25 player. Last season, almost immediately after he was acquired he was hit in the head and suffered a concussion causing him to miss 16 days. There is nothing he could have done about it, other then duck sooner, but nonetheless these things seem to follow him. He is like a third base version of Ken Griffey Jr.

The Reds extended his contract for 2 additional years in exchange for him taking a pay cut this year. That money was used to sign some Cuban, which looks to be good, but Rolen's chance of being a healthy contributor when the deal ends in 2013 is unlikely. At least the Reds seem to be trying to win now.

The other thing Rolen supposedly brings is clubhouse leadership. He is a 13-year veteran with 32 games of postseason experience including a world series win in 2006 with some team a few hours west. He is a big, commanding presence and could really help some of our young superstars like Bruce and Votto.

If he stays healthy, he can bat behind Votto, giving him some protection, and give the Reds a right hand power bat they have been lacking for years. If he gets hurt again, he will be an expensive DL player. One of the Reds best prospects is Juan Francisco, a young third basemen who can crush the ball. He also happens to strike out a lot and doesn't walk, not a good combination. In his cup of coffee last September, he did pretty well but it was only a few dozen at bats. He could make the team as a backup third basemen/left fielder or he could also be sent to Louisville to learn plate discipline and wait on a Rolen injury. The likely everyday backup is Aaron Miles, who can play basically any position but none very well.

No matter what happens, this position is an upgrade over Edwin Encarnacion and his "potential" that was never realized.

Will have another post this week about the crazy weekend of college basketball and maybe one after watching Chapman pitch tonight on FSN Ohio. He should start pitching in the 6th or about 5:30

First Base Breakdown

Joey Votto (.322/.414/.567/.981/155 OPS+ in 544 PA's. 25 HRs, 84 RBIs, and 38 2Bs)

Those are damn good numbers especially for a 25 year old who was also dealing with the loss of his father and other issues. After missing a week in May and three weeks in June to deal with those issues, he managed to return and play at the same high level. Let's hope this season he can stay on the field and put up solid numbers again. He should get a chance to play everyday if he is healthy. His backups will be various OF's or utility players who need a few AB's when Joey is off.

His nearest competition for the everyday job raises an interesting question on the Reds future. The development this spring is what do you do when your best prospect, Yonder Alonso, happens to play the same position as your best everyday player, Joey Votto. Does one find a new position? If so, which one? Does one get traded? If so which one?

On the one hand, Alonso has been working in the outfield and third base at times in Arizona but most scouts feel he can only play first due to his big build and lack of speed and agility. He will be a 1B/DH type and there is no sense in him learning other position if he will never see time there. That time would better be spent hitting and learning 1B.

On the other hand, Joey is a 1B. He may have the speed and agility to play LF but why would he move there? He has worked hard at first base and become above-average so why should he have to learn a new position, especially if it may effect his hitting? He has proven he can be an everyday 1B thanks to his quality hitting and improved defense. He is also the best position player and a team leader. Those players don't like to move positions (see Jeter, Derek)

The Reds are in a bit of a pickle on this one. Both players are still young and inexpensive so there is no pressing monetary reason for them to act now. However, Joey starts arbitration next season and Alonso cannot be in the minors past 2011 so it is either this season or next season when something must be done. Both have high trade values but it would be difficult to get equal value in return since the other teams are in the position of power knowing the Reds have to trade one player. I think they should try and lock up Votto for 4 or 5 years at a low salary, as most teams do with cornerstone players. (Longoria, Upton, Braun) If that happens then you show Alonso off at AAA then trade him for a stud SS prospect, stud Catching prospect, or a power hitting LF. Those are the 3 areas the Reds have the most need. If Votto doesn't want a deal or one can't be agreed on, trade him next season before he starts making big money and give Alonso the everyday 1B job. I just don't see a way for both to be on the field at the same time unfortunately.

If I were the Reds, Alonso is too much of a wild card. I make sure I can lock up Votto and trade Alonso this season. Once I get a nice return for him, I have Votto sign for 4 or 5 years, taking him to 30, and worry about the rest of the team. If Alonso becomes a star somewhere else it won't be so bad because he wouldn't have played here anyway.

1B should not be a cause for concern for the Reds until 2015 thanks to the great depth. The key is turning that great depth into other pieces that will help the rest of the team.

Baseball Thoughts

Another lost season kept me away in August. Hey, at least it lasted that long. Here is what you may have missed.

-The Reds need Scott Rolen to stay healthy. I know that is like asking PacMan Jones to stay out of strip clubs or Brett Farve to stay retired but it is true. The Reds are 11-4 when he has played, all 4 losses coming to playoff contending LA and Colorado. If he stays healthy next year, an enormous if, the Reds could be good. Unfortunately, here are his total games played the last 5 years: 56, 142, 112, 115, 102, and probably about 120 this year. He also turns 35 around opening day next year. I hope he stays healthy because his OPS+ has still been 107 and 118 the past 2 years and his defense is an A-, much better then anyone playing third since Chris Sabo. I am not optimistic he can stay off the DL though.

-Dusty has completed his dismantling of the once promising starting staff. Volquez had Tommy John Surgery and is done until late 2010. Cueto is on the DL and has not been himself since May. Harang, who was ruined last season in the 18 inning San Diego game (the game that revived this blog), was ruined on almost the exact same day this season when Dusty sent him out after a rain delay of over two hours in order to get one more out, and thus a win. He was 5-4 with a 3.36 ERA at that point. After, he was 1-10 with a 4.80 ERA and his OPS against has jumped 100 points. Awesome. Now he is done for the season because his appendix burst. I bet he did it to himself in order to avoid Dusty's torture. If Homer Bailey is smart, he will lay low until Dusty is gone or he is a free agent. Save yourself Homer!

-The Reds field a minor league team every day. Currently, the Reds are starting 2 players that would actual start on a contending team, Votto and Phillips. The other 6 are bench/role players or rookies who have potential. Dusty loves role players and cast offs. Reminds him of where he will be next year. If you were the manager and the season was clearly lost, wouldn't you play the rookies to let them learn? Wouldn't any sane person? You would think. But you would be wrong. Dusty played Willy Taveras and his 45 OPS+ at the top of the order up until he got hurt. Alex Gonzalez and his 43 OPS+ continued to play and bat second until he was traded. Now that they are gone, Dusty has been forced to play Janish, a defensive whiz who is starting to hit better after Dusty sat him for all but 3 games in July and killed any confidence he had, and Drew Stubbs, who is another defensive whiz and should start everyday in 2010. Other then that, it is pretty boring. Injuries have been everywhere. I'm sure that is what Dusty will blame. Good teams overcome them, bad teams blame them. Guess which one the Reds are?

-There is still a chance the Reds could get to 4th, or even third place. They currently sit 3 games out of 4th and 4.5 games out of third. They have 6 games remaining against the Pirates and 6 against Houston. Take 9 of those 12 and it could happen. Lose and maybe Dusty will get fired. Then again, maybe not.

Another post later on the return of football.

Took a bad turn in June

Finally that month is over. The Reds limped through it. Now they face a pretty daunting July and unless the offense improves, it will be the nail in the coffin.

Thanks to a crappy division, the season isn't over yet. The Reds are only 2 games behind the Cardinals for second and 4 behind the Brewers for first. Somehow they are still leading the Cubs by half a game. Shows how bad they have been. Let me show you the gory June stats first, then I will show that the upcoming schedule makes it likely that the Reds will plummet if they continue at this pace.

June stats

-As a team, the Reds went .229/.300/.349/.649 for an OPS+ of 78 and good enough for dead last in the majors. Let me repeat. DEAD LAST IN ALL OF BASEBALL. To put it in perspective, Alex Gonzalez has a career OPS+ of 78. The entire team was a weak hitting SS for an entire month. Wily Taveras had an OPS of .375. That should be is on base percentage, NOT his on base percentage PLUS slugging. Alex Gonzalez was .488. Hariston was .537. Hernandez was .597. You get the picture. Those are Corey Patterson numbers and loyal readers know how I feel about Corey.

-How did they go 11-15 in June? I wondered the same thing. It wasn't really the starting pitching either. Their ERA was at the bottom of the pack at 13th in the NL and WHIP was 15th. Arroyo had a 6.82 ERA and the Maloney/Volquez/Bailey combo was about 6.00. The relief pitchers were certainly an asset, posting the 2nd best WHIP and 4th best ERA in the NL. That has been the strength for the past few years. Another big factor, defense. According to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) the Reds are the 5th best defensive team in baseball(#2 in the NL). Last season they were 27(#15 in NL). But defense can only go so far in one month. What is the real reason? It all came down to the schedule. The teams they played just weren't good. Cleveland, Washington, and Atlanta are pretty bad. The best team they faced were the 4 games over .500 Blue Jays. Unfortunatly, those easy days are over.

July schedule

-The Reds have 2 more games against lowly Arizona. Need to win those because it may be a while until the Reds get another one. The final 10 games before the All-Star break are home for 3 with STL, 4 @Phi, 3@NYM. All 3 of those teams are over .500. After the break, the Reds host Mil for 4, go for 3 @LAD, then 3 @ CHC. Those teams are a combined 25 games over .500. The last games of the month consist of 4 at home to the Padres, the team that swept the Reds in May and one against the surging Rockies. WOW. If the team from June plays those 27 games as they did the previous 26, they won't go 11-15. They will go 2-25.

-the only reason for optimism is this: Votto is back and rounding into form. Edwin is on the brink of a return any day now. Volquez is back throwing after a setback and could rejoin after the All-Star game. Also, could they really hit any worse? I don't know if it is possible and I shutter to think what it would look like if they did. The easy part is over for the Reds and the made-or-break month is upon us. Let's get the starting pitchers back on track and the bats on fire. Otherwise, it turns into "Wait till next year."

Turning point

The Reds have reached a turning point in the season. They have managed to stay at .500 while Votto, Edwin, and Volquez have been on the DL. Now it seems that Votto will return tonight, Edwin is rehabbing in Louisville and Volquez should be ready in 2 weeks. Now is the time for the Reds to make a run. They have a series at Toronto, at Cleveland and home to Arizona. 6-3 is the goal for those 9 games because the final 10 before the All-Star game will be tough. The Reds host 3 against St. Louis, then travel for 4 at Philly and 3 at the Mets. A 5-5 split would be great but very difficult. This makes the next 9 a necessity. Let's review what has happened the past few weeks:

Positives:

Ryan Hanigan. Since Joey began to have his issues in May, Ryan has started 30 games and has put up a .312/.397/.385/.782 with only 9 K's in 109 PA's. He seems to be improving and is at the top of the NL in almost all rookie categories. This should ensure him more playing time once Votto returns and Hernandez is available. Not so fast. Dusty seems to think Hernandez will go back behind the plate and Hanigan will be on the bench. Awesome. Dusty does it again.

Bullpen. The bullpen has been amazing. Weathers, Rhodes, and Cordero have been unhittable. Masset showed he is human by allowing a few runs but he has still been well above average. These 4 guys have allowed the Reds to win some close games that, in years past, the Reds would have blown. It is nice to not be nervous in the 7th-9th innings.

Negatives:

So many let me just run through them quick. The big 3 of Taveras (44 OPS+), Gonzalez (45 OPS+), and Rosales (51 OPS+). That is 3 terrible bats in the lineup almsot every day. 38% of the lineup is pitiful. How did they win any games? Cueto has given up 5 runs in the past 2 games including blowing a 5-0 lead against the White Sox Saturday night. Matt Maloney was a nice story but in his 3 starts he is 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA and 73 ERA+.

Outlook: The Reds have reached the turning point. They are 34-34, 17-17 at home and 17-17 on the road. They either turn it on and get 4 or 5 games above .500 and in place to make a run at the postseason or they falter, lose 4 or 5 in a row and become sellers after the All-Star break. I hope getting healthy will lead to a run.

Treading Water

A sweep in Milwaukee, DL trips for our 2 best players in 2008, could it get any worse? I sure hope not. Right now the Reds need to tread water and stay above .500 until they get healthy. Votto is gone for at least 2 weeks, maybe longer. No one is saying what the stress-related, personal issue is but it sounds bad if they won't say what it is. The Reds have said it is related to his dizziness from earlier in the month. Volquez pitched one inning in his return before going back on the DL with tingling in his fingers, probably related to the back spasms that put him on the DL originally. That would mean a month without last years best position player and best pitcher. Thank goodness for Phillips' tear in May, going .352/.392/.682/ with 7 HR and 29 RBI. Another player that has been coming up big is Ramon Hernandez. He is currently at .282/.346/.380 for an 88 OPS+, but hit .313/.383/. 419 with 19 RBI in May as well. As I write this the Reds are leading the Cards 3-0 in the 3rd. If they can win tonight, they are assured a split in St. Louis before returning home for 3 against he Cubs. They should be 28-24 after tonight, thus assuring at least .500 after the next 4 games. Let's hope they can stay in the 3-5 games above for the next 2 weeks until Votto and Edinson return. Then they can really turn it on.

Off day thoughts

-Big sweep for the Reds. They are now 26-20, 1.5 games back of the Cards and .5 games back of second place Milwaukee. Today is an off day before 3 games at Miller Park and 4 at Inbev Stadium. HUGE TRIP. I like Jay Bruce's confidence when he said "We’re coming home in first." I am not so optomistic until we make sure Harang is alright after Dusty's stat stuffing move to send him out after a 2 hour delay and Edinson returns healthy and is not overworked. I know I will be watching most of the next 7 games, hoping the Reds continue the strong play.

-OK pick one for your All-Star 1B.
Player A-.360/.467/.632/1.099, 37 G, 10 2B, 8 HR, 33 RBI
Player B-.318/.450/.637/1.087, 46 G, 8 2B, 14 HR, 40 RBI

I like player A, some would like player B. Either way, it is a tossup.

Player A=Joey Votto
Player B=Albert Pujols

If the game were not in St. Louis, I think Joey would have a shot. Unfortunately, MLB will ensure Albert gets the start in his home park. Hopefully Joey will get the backup job. The crazy Canuck deserves it.

-Johnny Cueto is currently #4 in ERA+ with a 194 and Aaron Harang is 13th with a 137. Who would have thought the Reds would have the best 1-2 punch in the NL Central? And Volquez isn't one of them. If he gets back to last year's form, they will have the best 1-2-3 in the entire NL. Would be nice to have come October.

-Non Reds post coming later....

Kind of confused

Who was that team in the Cincinnati uniforms this past week and a half? Couldn't be the Reds. They don't win on the road. They don't beat division opponents and they certainly don't win all 3 series on a road trip. At least not since 2004. I guess this is a different team, and hey, different is better then boring.

I am not getting too worked up over it though. They are still getting very lucky by winning close and losing big. These things tend to even out. But for now I am riding the wave. Atlanta comes to town and the Reds are expecting large crowds this weekend at Great American Small Park. I will be there Saturday to watch the Lowe-Arroyo pitchers duel. Ok mostly I will be there for the 80 degrees, but seeing some winning baseball won't be bad. I haven't been to a game when the Reds were over .500 this late in the year since 2006. Should be fun.

OK, a quick Reds heavy analysis so far thanks to the amazing baseball-reference.com. This team is lucky. O wait, I already said that. They are 2 games above where they should be according to runs scored-runs allowed. Their .229/.317/.357 put them second to last in the NL in batting average, 3rd last in OBP, 2nd last in slugging, and second last in OPS. Those are dreadful offensive numbers. The other pitiful offensive teams, SF and ARI, have 6 wins each, which is where the Reds should be. You are probably asking why aren't they. Here is your answer: Joey Votto and Pitching.

-Votto has been amazing this season. I saw this coming two games into the year but now it has become apparent that he is for real. And not just in the "Hey the Reds have a player who doesn't suck" mode. He is turning into the left-handed Albert Pujols. Ok, not that good, but still. Through 15 games he has a .373/.431/.644 for a 169 OPS+. It is not quite Albert's .345/.459/.724 for a 202 OPS+ but Joey doesn't have the bloodlust of Albert either. Joey's 15 RBI's are 4th in the NL, behind Albert of course, but for a run-starved team like the Reds, it equates to 53. He has improved his D (where else could it go) and become somewhat of a leader in the clubhouse. 7 more years like this and he will be the left-handed Albert Pujols.

-The pitching has been great. A few starters have had some tough games(Volquez, Owings) but for the most part, the Reds pitchers have kept the team in the game. That is essential because they will not score many runs, so if a starter allows more then 2 runs, the game is probably over. Thank goodness most have kept the other hitters at bay for the first 5 or 6 innings then handed it over to the stellar bullpen. Burton and Lincoln had some bad innings but Weathers, Rhodes, and Cordero have been phenomenal. I feel confident when either of them come in from the bullpen. I can't remember the last time I felt confident when a Reds reliever entered. Ok, I did fell confident when Danny Graves came in but that confidence was in the fact that he would throw a batting practice fastball to lose the game. Slightly different with this group.

Overall, the pitchers have a 115 ERA+, which puts them 3rd in the NL. It is a little deceiving because their 1.432 WHIP puts them 10th, meaning they are allowing a lot of walks and hits but leaving them stranded. Those numbers usually even out and if they do, expect the ERA to go up. For know, we will call it good fortune and hope it continues. Seeing the Reds with good pitching is certainly a treat.

The Braves arrive sitting at 7-8, 2-7 in the last 9 after a great 5-1 start, and needing a strong weekend to catch up to the Florida Smoke and Mirrors. Yes, the Marlins are 11-4 but that is thanks to a 6-0 record against Washington and a 5-4 record against everyone else. I would hold off on the Marlin playoff tickets for now. Should be a fun weekend and hey, the Reds are guaranteed to be at or above .500 for all 3 games. Sounds good to me.

Mets on verge of sweep

Well the first 2 games were interesting. Opening day went as I thought, good pitching, no offense and a 2-1 loss. The second game looked like the old Reds. Score a bunch of runs, give them back thanks to bad defense, then leave runs out there thanks to double plays and bad base running. I thought Dusty preached good base running and defense. That is why we got rid of our home-run, on base machine Adam Dunn. Sorry Dusty. It didn't work. We pissed away a good hitting day because of an error by Gonzalez, a non-error by Bruce that led to 2 extra runs, and a base running error. Not to mention some bad pitching by Mike Lincoln.

Let me breakdown the good and bad so far:

POSITIVES
-Joey Votto's bat. He has been great and is hitting the ball very hard. 4-8 with a homer including a hit and a walk against Johan Santana, the best pitcher in the NL. He seems to have improved off his unbelieveable rookie year. I think the WBC really helped him. He got to hang out with Morneau and Bay for team Canada and learn about hitting. Also, playing in that playoff atmosphere has him ready to experiece that in the big leagues. Unfortuneatly. it will probably be for Toronto in a few years once the Reds trade him there.

-Brandon Phillips' patience. Don't look know because you may jinx it but BP has decided he doesn't have to swing at everything. He has walked 3 times in the first 2 games which is amazing for a player who has yet to walk 40 times in 162 games. Keep it up.

-Edwin Encanacion's patience. I can't comment on his bat seeing as how he is 0-5 but he has managed to keep it on his shoulder enough to draw 4 walks. Why the Mets have walked him when it is clear he is struggling to make solid contact is beyond me.

NEGATIVES
-Dusty Baker. You knew this one was coming. He put in Laynce Nix and Darnell McDonald before Wily Taveras when Wily was clearly healthy enough to play. He legged out a triple then scored on a sac fly. Doesn't sound like someone who is too sick to play. Letting those other 2 swing a bat when a capable, better player sits on the bench is inexcusable. Then again, so is allowing Carlos Beltran and his 118 career OPS+ to hit with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1st base open. WALK HIM and let your great D turn the double play. Instead, Beltran singled up the middle for 2 runs, the 2 runs the Mets needed to win the game. Well done Dusty.

-Reds pitching control. 7 walks opening day, 7 walks last night. Granted, the Mets are a patient team but walking nearly a batter an inning is terrible. I know Dusty thinks it clogs the bases so he probably encourages walks but it doesn't clog anything. Only when it brings up the pitcher or creates a double play does it make even a little bit of sense. The Reds pitchers need to find the strike zone and find it now or it could be a long season.

The Mets go for the sweep this afternoon which shouldn't be to hard thanks to an injury to the statue that is Jerry Hairston. His totally foreseeable injury forces Darnell McDonald into the lineup again. Darnell is a 30 year old journeyman outfielder with a grand total of 45 ab's in the majors. He is not good at baseball. Glad he could start 2 of the first 3 games for the Reds instead of someone like Gary Sheffield or Drew Stubbs. Gary has his fielding limitations but can still hit and Stubbs has never been in the big leagues bit has shown promise and deserves a shot. Either one would be an improvement over McDonald and both cost the same amount of money. I guess Dusty felt that after trading journeyman Jeff Keppinger he needed McDonald to fill the "trys hard but can't really play baseball" void. Too bad David Eckstien wasn't available.

Infield

The positional breakdown has now moved into the field. The Reds infield is fairly set with the only variable being injuries and Dusty Baker's stupidity. These two are very similar because they can be unpredictable and cause great anger to Reds fans everywhere. Let's hope the injuries don't creep up because Dusty's ignorance is unavoidable and will probably be enough to drive most fans to drinking. I have already started. Here is how the infield breaks down by position:

C
Starter: Ramon Hernandez (.257/.308/.406, OPS+ of 86)
Backup: Ryan Hanigan (.271/.367/.365, OPS+ of 91 in only 85 AB's)

In the offseason the Reds made one trade. That trade sent oft-injured and useless Ryan Freel to Baltimore for the oft-aloof and useless Ramon Hernandez. Seems like a case of both guys needing a change of scenery. Hernandez was criticized last season for seeming disinterested and not trying his hardest(Adam Dunn behind the plate). This may have had to do with the fact that Baltimore's best prospect was goign to take his spot behind the plate very soon. He still managed to put up pretty good numbers in the toughest division in baseball. Instead of facing 4 of the best rotations in baseball(Tor, NYY, Bos, TB) he gets to feast on some of the worst (Pit, Mil, Hou). I would also hope that a new team with great young Latin talent would get him excited about playing again. Not to mention our manager and his ability to get the best out of players. If he can improve to a .270/.320/.420 he would be the best catcher the Reds have had since Joe Oliver. Ok, that may be a stretch but I just wanted to give a shout out to the fromer World Series Hero. Hanigan played well in his September callup and is a much better defensive catcher then Hernandez. He will need to show he can hit everyday in the majors before he takes over the job. A year of backing up/spot starting would be a great way to break him in.

1B
Starter: Joey Votto (.297/.368/.506, OPS+ 124)

Last season's Rookie of the Year Runner-Up solidified his spot here for years to come. He started in a platoon with Scott Hatteberg (Thanks Dusty) but soon proved he needed to play every day. The key to him is that he was able to hit the same whether it was a RH or LH pitcher. He drew walks and hit to all fields which made him very dangerous. His defense was very up-and-down, mostly down, but he improved as the year went on and will hopefully continue that. He is only 25 and should be a staple of the Reds for a long time. Or at least until he gets too expensive and moves to a team that has money.

2B
Starter: Brandon Phillips (.261/.312/.422, OPS+ of 92)

Brandon's stats declined a little last season from his OPS+ of 105 in 2007. This is partly because he was moved to cleanup hitter and asked to hit homeruns. This didn't work. So what does Dusty do? Put him back at #4 this season. Brilliant. He OBP has never been great but last season he drew more walks in fewer AB's and cut down on his strikeouts. If he can return to '07 form, he could be good again. His defense is his strength. A former SS, his range in unbelieveable and, if not for a ridiculous '07 vote, he would have 2 straight gold gloves. He has been trying to become a leader, even attending the Reds caravan, something usually given to rookies because it takes away from time on the golf course. The question is whether his teammates will follow his lead. The best way to get the respect is to play and play well. Winning would also help.

SS
Starter: Alex Gonzalez (.272/.325/.468, OPS+ of 99 all in 2007)

Gonzalez is back and said to be 100% after missing all of last season after having knee surgery. '07 was a great year for him at the plate but his defense and playing time were down. This could have been because his child was suffering from medical issues and took his focus off the game. This season, everything is good and he should be ready to go from day one. If his defense returns to what it was a few years ago and his batting stays strong he could be one of the better SS's in the national league. Before the injury, he was widely regarded as one of the best defensive SS in the game. His '07 year at the plate was also one of his best. His health and return to form will be a major factor in whether the Reds can improve and possibly contend this season.

3B
Starter: Edwin Encancion (.251/.340/.466, OPS+ of 106)

Edwin regressed last year, both at the plate and in the field. His explanation for his struggles at the plate was kept trying to pull the ball out of the ballpark. This season he is going to try and spray it to all fields which should help his average. He still draws a ton of walks, much to Dusty's chagrin, and has the power to hit 20 HRs. Still young at 26 he should improve at the plate and on the field. His defense was atrocious last season but was pretty good the year before. I'm sure his actual ability is somewhere in the middle. He should continue to hit and put up a solid OBP. Improvement in the fielding and throwing would boost him to the top tier of NL 3rd basemen.

Utility IFs
All positions-Jeff Keppinger (.266/.310/.346, OPS+ of 70)
SS, 2B-Jerry Hairston Jr. (.326/.384/.487, OPS+ of 124)

Keppinger is a serviceable utility man who can hit when healthy. His numbers last season were down but that is partly because he was rushed back from a knee injury and played at less then 100%. At full strength his OPS+ is about 100 but his range at short is very limited. Hairston is in the battle for LF but can also play CF, SS, and 2B which makes him very useful. He can also serve as a leadoff hitter and the Reds were very good when he played last season. Of course, last season was a career year for him which he attributed to being 100% for most of it. Unfortunately that didn't last long because he was back on the DL a few times. The Reds will need him as a backup and spot starter and if he can stay healthy, a big if, he will be a solid RH bat off the bench.

One other player in the running for the utility spot is Wilkin Castilo, a player acquired in the Adam Dunn trade. He is only 24 and can play all IF spots including C. He received 30 AB's last September but will probably start the season back in the minors until his hitting improves or someone gets injured.

The infield is a solid hitting bunch with the corners being the strength and the middle being average to above-average. The defense, other then 2B, is a big question mark. Gonzalez is older and coming off a season ending injury and the corners are young and error-prone. If they improve and Gonzalez is back to his old form, they could be good. If they don't improve and Gonzalez is limited, the Reds will once again be at the bottom of the NL in terms of defense. Let's hope for the former and not the latter.