Baseball Thoughts

Another lost season kept me away in August. Hey, at least it lasted that long. Here is what you may have missed.

-The Reds need Scott Rolen to stay healthy. I know that is like asking PacMan Jones to stay out of strip clubs or Brett Farve to stay retired but it is true. The Reds are 11-4 when he has played, all 4 losses coming to playoff contending LA and Colorado. If he stays healthy next year, an enormous if, the Reds could be good. Unfortunately, here are his total games played the last 5 years: 56, 142, 112, 115, 102, and probably about 120 this year. He also turns 35 around opening day next year. I hope he stays healthy because his OPS+ has still been 107 and 118 the past 2 years and his defense is an A-, much better then anyone playing third since Chris Sabo. I am not optimistic he can stay off the DL though.

-Dusty has completed his dismantling of the once promising starting staff. Volquez had Tommy John Surgery and is done until late 2010. Cueto is on the DL and has not been himself since May. Harang, who was ruined last season in the 18 inning San Diego game (the game that revived this blog), was ruined on almost the exact same day this season when Dusty sent him out after a rain delay of over two hours in order to get one more out, and thus a win. He was 5-4 with a 3.36 ERA at that point. After, he was 1-10 with a 4.80 ERA and his OPS against has jumped 100 points. Awesome. Now he is done for the season because his appendix burst. I bet he did it to himself in order to avoid Dusty's torture. If Homer Bailey is smart, he will lay low until Dusty is gone or he is a free agent. Save yourself Homer!

-The Reds field a minor league team every day. Currently, the Reds are starting 2 players that would actual start on a contending team, Votto and Phillips. The other 6 are bench/role players or rookies who have potential. Dusty loves role players and cast offs. Reminds him of where he will be next year. If you were the manager and the season was clearly lost, wouldn't you play the rookies to let them learn? Wouldn't any sane person? You would think. But you would be wrong. Dusty played Willy Taveras and his 45 OPS+ at the top of the order up until he got hurt. Alex Gonzalez and his 43 OPS+ continued to play and bat second until he was traded. Now that they are gone, Dusty has been forced to play Janish, a defensive whiz who is starting to hit better after Dusty sat him for all but 3 games in July and killed any confidence he had, and Drew Stubbs, who is another defensive whiz and should start everyday in 2010. Other then that, it is pretty boring. Injuries have been everywhere. I'm sure that is what Dusty will blame. Good teams overcome them, bad teams blame them. Guess which one the Reds are?

-There is still a chance the Reds could get to 4th, or even third place. They currently sit 3 games out of 4th and 4.5 games out of third. They have 6 games remaining against the Pirates and 6 against Houston. Take 9 of those 12 and it could happen. Lose and maybe Dusty will get fired. Then again, maybe not.

Another post later on the return of football.

Took a bad turn in June

Finally that month is over. The Reds limped through it. Now they face a pretty daunting July and unless the offense improves, it will be the nail in the coffin.

Thanks to a crappy division, the season isn't over yet. The Reds are only 2 games behind the Cardinals for second and 4 behind the Brewers for first. Somehow they are still leading the Cubs by half a game. Shows how bad they have been. Let me show you the gory June stats first, then I will show that the upcoming schedule makes it likely that the Reds will plummet if they continue at this pace.

June stats

-As a team, the Reds went .229/.300/.349/.649 for an OPS+ of 78 and good enough for dead last in the majors. Let me repeat. DEAD LAST IN ALL OF BASEBALL. To put it in perspective, Alex Gonzalez has a career OPS+ of 78. The entire team was a weak hitting SS for an entire month. Wily Taveras had an OPS of .375. That should be is on base percentage, NOT his on base percentage PLUS slugging. Alex Gonzalez was .488. Hariston was .537. Hernandez was .597. You get the picture. Those are Corey Patterson numbers and loyal readers know how I feel about Corey.

-How did they go 11-15 in June? I wondered the same thing. It wasn't really the starting pitching either. Their ERA was at the bottom of the pack at 13th in the NL and WHIP was 15th. Arroyo had a 6.82 ERA and the Maloney/Volquez/Bailey combo was about 6.00. The relief pitchers were certainly an asset, posting the 2nd best WHIP and 4th best ERA in the NL. That has been the strength for the past few years. Another big factor, defense. According to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) the Reds are the 5th best defensive team in baseball(#2 in the NL). Last season they were 27(#15 in NL). But defense can only go so far in one month. What is the real reason? It all came down to the schedule. The teams they played just weren't good. Cleveland, Washington, and Atlanta are pretty bad. The best team they faced were the 4 games over .500 Blue Jays. Unfortunatly, those easy days are over.

July schedule

-The Reds have 2 more games against lowly Arizona. Need to win those because it may be a while until the Reds get another one. The final 10 games before the All-Star break are home for 3 with STL, 4 @Phi, 3@NYM. All 3 of those teams are over .500. After the break, the Reds host Mil for 4, go for 3 @LAD, then 3 @ CHC. Those teams are a combined 25 games over .500. The last games of the month consist of 4 at home to the Padres, the team that swept the Reds in May and one against the surging Rockies. WOW. If the team from June plays those 27 games as they did the previous 26, they won't go 11-15. They will go 2-25.

-the only reason for optimism is this: Votto is back and rounding into form. Edwin is on the brink of a return any day now. Volquez is back throwing after a setback and could rejoin after the All-Star game. Also, could they really hit any worse? I don't know if it is possible and I shutter to think what it would look like if they did. The easy part is over for the Reds and the made-or-break month is upon us. Let's get the starting pitchers back on track and the bats on fire. Otherwise, it turns into "Wait till next year."

Turning point

The Reds have reached a turning point in the season. They have managed to stay at .500 while Votto, Edwin, and Volquez have been on the DL. Now it seems that Votto will return tonight, Edwin is rehabbing in Louisville and Volquez should be ready in 2 weeks. Now is the time for the Reds to make a run. They have a series at Toronto, at Cleveland and home to Arizona. 6-3 is the goal for those 9 games because the final 10 before the All-Star game will be tough. The Reds host 3 against St. Louis, then travel for 4 at Philly and 3 at the Mets. A 5-5 split would be great but very difficult. This makes the next 9 a necessity. Let's review what has happened the past few weeks:

Positives:

Ryan Hanigan. Since Joey began to have his issues in May, Ryan has started 30 games and has put up a .312/.397/.385/.782 with only 9 K's in 109 PA's. He seems to be improving and is at the top of the NL in almost all rookie categories. This should ensure him more playing time once Votto returns and Hernandez is available. Not so fast. Dusty seems to think Hernandez will go back behind the plate and Hanigan will be on the bench. Awesome. Dusty does it again.

Bullpen. The bullpen has been amazing. Weathers, Rhodes, and Cordero have been unhittable. Masset showed he is human by allowing a few runs but he has still been well above average. These 4 guys have allowed the Reds to win some close games that, in years past, the Reds would have blown. It is nice to not be nervous in the 7th-9th innings.

Negatives:

So many let me just run through them quick. The big 3 of Taveras (44 OPS+), Gonzalez (45 OPS+), and Rosales (51 OPS+). That is 3 terrible bats in the lineup almsot every day. 38% of the lineup is pitiful. How did they win any games? Cueto has given up 5 runs in the past 2 games including blowing a 5-0 lead against the White Sox Saturday night. Matt Maloney was a nice story but in his 3 starts he is 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA and 73 ERA+.

Outlook: The Reds have reached the turning point. They are 34-34, 17-17 at home and 17-17 on the road. They either turn it on and get 4 or 5 games above .500 and in place to make a run at the postseason or they falter, lose 4 or 5 in a row and become sellers after the All-Star break. I hope getting healthy will lead to a run.

Treading Water

A sweep in Milwaukee, DL trips for our 2 best players in 2008, could it get any worse? I sure hope not. Right now the Reds need to tread water and stay above .500 until they get healthy. Votto is gone for at least 2 weeks, maybe longer. No one is saying what the stress-related, personal issue is but it sounds bad if they won't say what it is. The Reds have said it is related to his dizziness from earlier in the month. Volquez pitched one inning in his return before going back on the DL with tingling in his fingers, probably related to the back spasms that put him on the DL originally. That would mean a month without last years best position player and best pitcher. Thank goodness for Phillips' tear in May, going .352/.392/.682/ with 7 HR and 29 RBI. Another player that has been coming up big is Ramon Hernandez. He is currently at .282/.346/.380 for an 88 OPS+, but hit .313/.383/. 419 with 19 RBI in May as well. As I write this the Reds are leading the Cards 3-0 in the 3rd. If they can win tonight, they are assured a split in St. Louis before returning home for 3 against he Cubs. They should be 28-24 after tonight, thus assuring at least .500 after the next 4 games. Let's hope they can stay in the 3-5 games above for the next 2 weeks until Votto and Edinson return. Then they can really turn it on.

Off day thoughts

-Big sweep for the Reds. They are now 26-20, 1.5 games back of the Cards and .5 games back of second place Milwaukee. Today is an off day before 3 games at Miller Park and 4 at Inbev Stadium. HUGE TRIP. I like Jay Bruce's confidence when he said "We’re coming home in first." I am not so optomistic until we make sure Harang is alright after Dusty's stat stuffing move to send him out after a 2 hour delay and Edinson returns healthy and is not overworked. I know I will be watching most of the next 7 games, hoping the Reds continue the strong play.

-OK pick one for your All-Star 1B.
Player A-.360/.467/.632/1.099, 37 G, 10 2B, 8 HR, 33 RBI
Player B-.318/.450/.637/1.087, 46 G, 8 2B, 14 HR, 40 RBI

I like player A, some would like player B. Either way, it is a tossup.

Player A=Joey Votto
Player B=Albert Pujols

If the game were not in St. Louis, I think Joey would have a shot. Unfortunately, MLB will ensure Albert gets the start in his home park. Hopefully Joey will get the backup job. The crazy Canuck deserves it.

-Johnny Cueto is currently #4 in ERA+ with a 194 and Aaron Harang is 13th with a 137. Who would have thought the Reds would have the best 1-2 punch in the NL Central? And Volquez isn't one of them. If he gets back to last year's form, they will have the best 1-2-3 in the entire NL. Would be nice to have come October.

-Non Reds post coming later....

Starting Pitchers

For the first time in over a decade, the Reds left their starting pitching staff in tact. Last season our starters had an ERA of 4.97. Remove the revolving 5th starter(Fogg, Bailey, Belisle, Ramirez, Thompson, and Pettyjohn) and his 7.11 ERA and the other 4 returners (Harang, Cueto, Volquez and Arroyo) had an ERA of 4.37. That is not half bad and would have been in the top half of the NL before factoring in the bandbox called Great American Ballpark. Those 4 should be the cornerstone of one of the best 1-4 staffs in the NL and should give us a quality start two-thirds of the time.

The success of the Reds will come down to who wins the 5th spot and how that pitcher fares. Last season the 5th starter was 4-21. Change that number to 11-14 and the Reds become a .500 team. I expect Harang to bounce back and have a good season, which should offset any bumps in the road for Volquez and Cueto, who should both struggle in their second season pitching to the NL. Arroyo will do his 200 innings and 12 wins like always. As the 5th starter goes, so goes the team. He goes 11-14 while the top 4 stay the same, they are .500. He goes 14-11 with the top 4 staying the same, they are an 84 win team. He goes 15-10 with the top 4 inproving, they could get to 88 wins and have a chance at the division or WC with some help. I know its a long shot but everyone is a contender in February and March. Jeff Passan thinks we have a chance to compete with the Cubs(and like myself is not a Dusty fan). The 5th starter will determine it.

The competition will likely be between these four pitchers:

Micah Owings-Centerpiece of the Adam Dunn trade, he has started 45 major league games and has put up a 14-17 record in 257.1 innings with a 4.97 ERA. Struggled last year and had his pitching year cut short due to an injury but should be fully healed for spting training. He is 26 and has by far the most major league experience of any other contender. The other great thing is he can swing the bat. Last season he served as a pitch hitter for the Reds in September and managed to go 2-4 with 3 RBI's. He has put up solid batting numbers in his 116 AB's with a .319/.355/.552 and OPS+ of 126. That is a small sample sive but automatically makes him the 6th or 7th best hitter on the team. Can still be used as a pitch hitter late. His job to lose and I think he wins it.

Odds to job: 3-2

Homer Bailey-Once a top 10 prospect who some people are calling washed up at 22 years old. Those people are idiots and don't listen to them. He is still very young and, if he gets his head on straight, could break out and have a huge year. He has pitched well in AAA but has not been able to translate that success to Cincinnati. I chalk it up to being young and nervous. If he can make the club out of spring training and spend some time with Harang and Arroyo to learn the ropes, I think he could be very good.

Odds of winning job: 2-1

Daryl Thompson-bursted on the scene last summer with a great debut in Yankee Stadium. His is only 23 years old and only started 10 games above AA, 3 of those with the Reds. He should probably spend most of the year in Louisville and be called up later in the summer if there is an injury or trade. I like his potential but unless he throws lights out he needs some more seasoning. No need to rush his development when we have plenty of other viable, and probably better candidates.

Odds of winning job: 8-1

Ramon Ramirez-26 year old who probably looked the best out of the contenders last season, starting 4 games and pitching 27 innings with a 2.67 ERA. More mature then the other contenders and we know how Dusty loves older players. Can pitch out of the bullpen so if he were to lose the 5th starter spot he could make the team as a long reliever/spot starter. Still needs to Wow people to win the job because he is close to a finished product and would take time away from developing one of the other, younger contenders.

Odds of winning job: 10-1

The way I see it, Owings should get it unless some other pitcher pitches so well they take it away. Last year, Volquez pitched better then expected and Cueto blew everyone away to earn his spot, so it could happen. We will find out over the next 6 weeks.