Took a bad turn in June

Finally that month is over. The Reds limped through it. Now they face a pretty daunting July and unless the offense improves, it will be the nail in the coffin.

Thanks to a crappy division, the season isn't over yet. The Reds are only 2 games behind the Cardinals for second and 4 behind the Brewers for first. Somehow they are still leading the Cubs by half a game. Shows how bad they have been. Let me show you the gory June stats first, then I will show that the upcoming schedule makes it likely that the Reds will plummet if they continue at this pace.

June stats

-As a team, the Reds went .229/.300/.349/.649 for an OPS+ of 78 and good enough for dead last in the majors. Let me repeat. DEAD LAST IN ALL OF BASEBALL. To put it in perspective, Alex Gonzalez has a career OPS+ of 78. The entire team was a weak hitting SS for an entire month. Wily Taveras had an OPS of .375. That should be is on base percentage, NOT his on base percentage PLUS slugging. Alex Gonzalez was .488. Hariston was .537. Hernandez was .597. You get the picture. Those are Corey Patterson numbers and loyal readers know how I feel about Corey.

-How did they go 11-15 in June? I wondered the same thing. It wasn't really the starting pitching either. Their ERA was at the bottom of the pack at 13th in the NL and WHIP was 15th. Arroyo had a 6.82 ERA and the Maloney/Volquez/Bailey combo was about 6.00. The relief pitchers were certainly an asset, posting the 2nd best WHIP and 4th best ERA in the NL. That has been the strength for the past few years. Another big factor, defense. According to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) the Reds are the 5th best defensive team in baseball(#2 in the NL). Last season they were 27(#15 in NL). But defense can only go so far in one month. What is the real reason? It all came down to the schedule. The teams they played just weren't good. Cleveland, Washington, and Atlanta are pretty bad. The best team they faced were the 4 games over .500 Blue Jays. Unfortunatly, those easy days are over.

July schedule

-The Reds have 2 more games against lowly Arizona. Need to win those because it may be a while until the Reds get another one. The final 10 games before the All-Star break are home for 3 with STL, 4 @Phi, 3@NYM. All 3 of those teams are over .500. After the break, the Reds host Mil for 4, go for 3 @LAD, then 3 @ CHC. Those teams are a combined 25 games over .500. The last games of the month consist of 4 at home to the Padres, the team that swept the Reds in May and one against the surging Rockies. WOW. If the team from June plays those 27 games as they did the previous 26, they won't go 11-15. They will go 2-25.

-the only reason for optimism is this: Votto is back and rounding into form. Edwin is on the brink of a return any day now. Volquez is back throwing after a setback and could rejoin after the All-Star game. Also, could they really hit any worse? I don't know if it is possible and I shutter to think what it would look like if they did. The easy part is over for the Reds and the made-or-break month is upon us. Let's get the starting pitchers back on track and the bats on fire. Otherwise, it turns into "Wait till next year."

Infield

The positional breakdown has now moved into the field. The Reds infield is fairly set with the only variable being injuries and Dusty Baker's stupidity. These two are very similar because they can be unpredictable and cause great anger to Reds fans everywhere. Let's hope the injuries don't creep up because Dusty's ignorance is unavoidable and will probably be enough to drive most fans to drinking. I have already started. Here is how the infield breaks down by position:

C
Starter: Ramon Hernandez (.257/.308/.406, OPS+ of 86)
Backup: Ryan Hanigan (.271/.367/.365, OPS+ of 91 in only 85 AB's)

In the offseason the Reds made one trade. That trade sent oft-injured and useless Ryan Freel to Baltimore for the oft-aloof and useless Ramon Hernandez. Seems like a case of both guys needing a change of scenery. Hernandez was criticized last season for seeming disinterested and not trying his hardest(Adam Dunn behind the plate). This may have had to do with the fact that Baltimore's best prospect was goign to take his spot behind the plate very soon. He still managed to put up pretty good numbers in the toughest division in baseball. Instead of facing 4 of the best rotations in baseball(Tor, NYY, Bos, TB) he gets to feast on some of the worst (Pit, Mil, Hou). I would also hope that a new team with great young Latin talent would get him excited about playing again. Not to mention our manager and his ability to get the best out of players. If he can improve to a .270/.320/.420 he would be the best catcher the Reds have had since Joe Oliver. Ok, that may be a stretch but I just wanted to give a shout out to the fromer World Series Hero. Hanigan played well in his September callup and is a much better defensive catcher then Hernandez. He will need to show he can hit everyday in the majors before he takes over the job. A year of backing up/spot starting would be a great way to break him in.

1B
Starter: Joey Votto (.297/.368/.506, OPS+ 124)

Last season's Rookie of the Year Runner-Up solidified his spot here for years to come. He started in a platoon with Scott Hatteberg (Thanks Dusty) but soon proved he needed to play every day. The key to him is that he was able to hit the same whether it was a RH or LH pitcher. He drew walks and hit to all fields which made him very dangerous. His defense was very up-and-down, mostly down, but he improved as the year went on and will hopefully continue that. He is only 25 and should be a staple of the Reds for a long time. Or at least until he gets too expensive and moves to a team that has money.

2B
Starter: Brandon Phillips (.261/.312/.422, OPS+ of 92)

Brandon's stats declined a little last season from his OPS+ of 105 in 2007. This is partly because he was moved to cleanup hitter and asked to hit homeruns. This didn't work. So what does Dusty do? Put him back at #4 this season. Brilliant. He OBP has never been great but last season he drew more walks in fewer AB's and cut down on his strikeouts. If he can return to '07 form, he could be good again. His defense is his strength. A former SS, his range in unbelieveable and, if not for a ridiculous '07 vote, he would have 2 straight gold gloves. He has been trying to become a leader, even attending the Reds caravan, something usually given to rookies because it takes away from time on the golf course. The question is whether his teammates will follow his lead. The best way to get the respect is to play and play well. Winning would also help.

SS
Starter: Alex Gonzalez (.272/.325/.468, OPS+ of 99 all in 2007)

Gonzalez is back and said to be 100% after missing all of last season after having knee surgery. '07 was a great year for him at the plate but his defense and playing time were down. This could have been because his child was suffering from medical issues and took his focus off the game. This season, everything is good and he should be ready to go from day one. If his defense returns to what it was a few years ago and his batting stays strong he could be one of the better SS's in the national league. Before the injury, he was widely regarded as one of the best defensive SS in the game. His '07 year at the plate was also one of his best. His health and return to form will be a major factor in whether the Reds can improve and possibly contend this season.

3B
Starter: Edwin Encancion (.251/.340/.466, OPS+ of 106)

Edwin regressed last year, both at the plate and in the field. His explanation for his struggles at the plate was kept trying to pull the ball out of the ballpark. This season he is going to try and spray it to all fields which should help his average. He still draws a ton of walks, much to Dusty's chagrin, and has the power to hit 20 HRs. Still young at 26 he should improve at the plate and on the field. His defense was atrocious last season but was pretty good the year before. I'm sure his actual ability is somewhere in the middle. He should continue to hit and put up a solid OBP. Improvement in the fielding and throwing would boost him to the top tier of NL 3rd basemen.

Utility IFs
All positions-Jeff Keppinger (.266/.310/.346, OPS+ of 70)
SS, 2B-Jerry Hairston Jr. (.326/.384/.487, OPS+ of 124)

Keppinger is a serviceable utility man who can hit when healthy. His numbers last season were down but that is partly because he was rushed back from a knee injury and played at less then 100%. At full strength his OPS+ is about 100 but his range at short is very limited. Hairston is in the battle for LF but can also play CF, SS, and 2B which makes him very useful. He can also serve as a leadoff hitter and the Reds were very good when he played last season. Of course, last season was a career year for him which he attributed to being 100% for most of it. Unfortunately that didn't last long because he was back on the DL a few times. The Reds will need him as a backup and spot starter and if he can stay healthy, a big if, he will be a solid RH bat off the bench.

One other player in the running for the utility spot is Wilkin Castilo, a player acquired in the Adam Dunn trade. He is only 24 and can play all IF spots including C. He received 30 AB's last September but will probably start the season back in the minors until his hitting improves or someone gets injured.

The infield is a solid hitting bunch with the corners being the strength and the middle being average to above-average. The defense, other then 2B, is a big question mark. Gonzalez is older and coming off a season ending injury and the corners are young and error-prone. If they improve and Gonzalez is back to his old form, they could be good. If they don't improve and Gonzalez is limited, the Reds will once again be at the bottom of the NL in terms of defense. Let's hope for the former and not the latter.

End of Bowl Season; Reds signings

Well a new year is upon us. My resolution: to write on the blog more. Why? Because I am fed up with college football and the only good thing to happen in college basketball has been this:



Well the final Bowl game is tonight and as I predicted it is an overrated SEC team against Oklahoma. I picked an overrated SEC team to win and I think that will happen. Florida, who lost at home to a 9 win Ole Miss team, gets to play for the title instead of USC, who lost to a 9 win Oregon State team two days before. Utah goes undefeated, beating that same Oregon State team along with No. 12 TCU and No. 14 BYU before trouncing the almighty Alabama in the Crimson Tide's backyard, yet gets no shot at a title. Why do these teams have no shot? Because they don't play in the almighty SEC. That being said, Oklahoma was the second best Big 12 team and should be able to hang with Florida but, in the end, Florida will pull it out because the home team usually wins a close game and this game is being played 300 miles from Gainsville and 1,500 miles from Norman. Sure is nice that the SEC gets the benefit of the doubt from the pollsters and computers even though they aren't a top 2 team(LSU 2003, Florida 2006, LSU 2007, Florida 2008) and gets to play the title game in their own backyard almost every year(LSU 2003, LSU 2007, Florida 2008). No matter what happens tonight, the real national champion will not be crowned because USC, Utah, and Texas have just as much a right to call themselves champions as tonights winner.

As for the Reds, I missed a few things during the holiday break. The Reds signed Willy Taveras to a 2 year deal worth $2.25 million this year and $4 million next year. He is a speedy CF, still fairly young at 27, and has shown signs of being a good leadoff man. His OPS in 2007 was .367 before falling to .308 last season. If he can go back to his 07 season, he would be a huge upgrade over previous leadoff/CF because his defense is pretty good and his baserunning is excellant. He was 68 for 75 last year which is the most steal in the league as well as one of the highest averages at 91%. Either way, he is better than Corey Patterson who has somehow gotten another chance at playing baseball, this time with the Nationals.

The other move was a resigning of Jerry Hairston on a one year deal. I also like this move because it is only a 1 year deal and he can play a variety of position, when healthy. He can play SS if A-Gon continues his 3 year rehab as well as CF and LF if we don't find another bat.

The righthand hitting LF search continues and things aren't looking too good. Milton Bradley is headed to Chicago, Pat Burrell is in Tampa, and it looks like the Red Sox will take Rocco Baldelli. That leaves only one available player, Manny Ramirez. He is still out there meaning his price has to have come down to around 20 million, something the Reds could probably afford but won't be able too because baseball is not meant for everyone to compete, only for big markets to compete every year with a random team thrown in to spice it up. I have seen all the stats about how many teams have made the playoffs/WS in the past 20 years but I give you this one, only once in the past 15 years has a team in the bottom half of payroll actually won the WS. That team was the Marlins. Goes to show you that those who can spend and do spend, win the WS. Those that don't have the means, have to hope for a miracle run to the playoffs or WS but don't have a realistic shot at actual winning the trophy. So, as pitchers and catchers begin to report in a month, remember that only 15 teams have a chance to hoist the trophy. What a great game.

Harang tonight, Braves this weekend

Should be another win tonight. Our ace on the mound against a reeling Pirate team that is ready to pack it in for the season. They have been in contention for too long. The Braves are terrible on the road so we should win two of three and get back to almost .500. Then again, Harang threw 4 inning Sunday thanks to Dusty butchering the game so all bets are off.

Quick note on the Pirates: As bad as most fans think there team is and how they have been tortured, nothing compares to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have not had a winning season in more than 15 years. That is ridiculous. Not one winning year. Never even close to the playoffs. And this years team is awful with nothing in the farm system to get excited about. The fact that any fan would support that team is beyond me. Then again I supported the Bengals in the 90's so what do I know.

Happy Birthday to Jerry Hairston and the one and only #44 Eric Davis.