Reds keep Rolen

I must say I am shocked at how well the team has played since the debacle in Atlanta. I expected a slump and extended losing streak. I expected mental errors and poor fundamentals. None of that happened and I am starting to think it has something to do with a certain veteran infielder.

Scott Rolen is having his best season in 5 years and the rest of the team is feeding off him. His stat line is very impressive at .272/.341/.556/.897/134 for an above average, 35 year old thirdbasemen. The young guys see what he does and learn from it. Phillips has learned to take more walks, walking at a rate of 9.4% when his previous high was 6.8%. Joey Votto has improved his defense and has an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of 3.9. The next closest firstbaseman is 2.2. Bruce, who had been in a bit of a power slump until last night, hasn't let that bother him. He has put up .278/.379/.457/.836/121 while playing the second best rightfield according to UZR. Johny Gomes is have a career year. Drew Stubbs has turned it around after a terrible start. Janish and Hanigan have played so well that they could be starters at any time. And Cabrara has.....well he has some RBIs. Yeah. The big change the Reds made between last year at this time and now is Scott Rolen. Everyone talks about how seriously he takes his job and how much he works at his game. It seems to be working. As long as he is in the lineup, the team looks very confident. They are fun to watch, something that hasn't been true in recent years. So from everyone in Reds Country, thanks Scotty.

(Yeah, I am totally glossing over the fact that some of this may have to do with Dusty not sucking but I don't buy it. He still sucks. If you want to hear how great he is, you probably shouldn't visit a website entitled Fire Dusty Baker)

Right Field Breakdown

I was going to do the entire outfield but Centerfield and Leftfield aren't set yet. Rightfield is easy.

Jay Bruce (.223/.303/.470/.773/100, 22 HR, 58 RBI)

Jay turns 23 on Saturday and is a cornerstone of the team. That is awfully young to be one of the faces of the franchise but he seems to take it in stride. He injured his wrist last season which limited him to 101 games. Despite the lost time he still hit 22 HRs and drew a decent amount of walks. His batting average is the one area he needs to improve. If he were to hit .270, his OBP would rise to .350. That is respectable for a right fielder and something that would make him a power in the middle of the order thanks to his high slugging. If he stays healthy the entire year I could see 35 HRs and a 140 OPS+, great numbers for a 23 year old, above average right fielder.

Hopefully the Reds will make their final cuts so I can complete the breakdowns.

Third Base breakdown

Sorry this wasn't posted Friday. I drank and watched basketball for 10 hours. It was a glorious day right up until Louisville crapped on the floor.

Scott Rolen (.305/.368/.455/.823/.117, 11HR, 67 RBI)

The key phrase always used with Rolen is "when healthy." When healthy, he is a solid, everyday player. When healthy, he can hit for power, hit for average, and take a walk if needed. When healthy, he is the cornerstone of the infield making plays few others in the game can make and winning gold-gloves. Unfortunately, it keeps coming back to health.

The past 5 years he has played 56, 142, 112, 115, 128 games for an average of 111 games, or 2/3 of a season. If that average were closer to 150, he would be considered a top 25 player. Last season, almost immediately after he was acquired he was hit in the head and suffered a concussion causing him to miss 16 days. There is nothing he could have done about it, other then duck sooner, but nonetheless these things seem to follow him. He is like a third base version of Ken Griffey Jr.

The Reds extended his contract for 2 additional years in exchange for him taking a pay cut this year. That money was used to sign some Cuban, which looks to be good, but Rolen's chance of being a healthy contributor when the deal ends in 2013 is unlikely. At least the Reds seem to be trying to win now.

The other thing Rolen supposedly brings is clubhouse leadership. He is a 13-year veteran with 32 games of postseason experience including a world series win in 2006 with some team a few hours west. He is a big, commanding presence and could really help some of our young superstars like Bruce and Votto.

If he stays healthy, he can bat behind Votto, giving him some protection, and give the Reds a right hand power bat they have been lacking for years. If he gets hurt again, he will be an expensive DL player. One of the Reds best prospects is Juan Francisco, a young third basemen who can crush the ball. He also happens to strike out a lot and doesn't walk, not a good combination. In his cup of coffee last September, he did pretty well but it was only a few dozen at bats. He could make the team as a backup third basemen/left fielder or he could also be sent to Louisville to learn plate discipline and wait on a Rolen injury. The likely everyday backup is Aaron Miles, who can play basically any position but none very well.

No matter what happens, this position is an upgrade over Edwin Encarnacion and his "potential" that was never realized.

Will have another post this week about the crazy weekend of college basketball and maybe one after watching Chapman pitch tonight on FSN Ohio. He should start pitching in the 6th or about 5:30

Off day thoughts

-Big sweep for the Reds. They are now 26-20, 1.5 games back of the Cards and .5 games back of second place Milwaukee. Today is an off day before 3 games at Miller Park and 4 at Inbev Stadium. HUGE TRIP. I like Jay Bruce's confidence when he said "We’re coming home in first." I am not so optomistic until we make sure Harang is alright after Dusty's stat stuffing move to send him out after a 2 hour delay and Edinson returns healthy and is not overworked. I know I will be watching most of the next 7 games, hoping the Reds continue the strong play.

-OK pick one for your All-Star 1B.
Player A-.360/.467/.632/1.099, 37 G, 10 2B, 8 HR, 33 RBI
Player B-.318/.450/.637/1.087, 46 G, 8 2B, 14 HR, 40 RBI

I like player A, some would like player B. Either way, it is a tossup.

Player A=Joey Votto
Player B=Albert Pujols

If the game were not in St. Louis, I think Joey would have a shot. Unfortunately, MLB will ensure Albert gets the start in his home park. Hopefully Joey will get the backup job. The crazy Canuck deserves it.

-Johnny Cueto is currently #4 in ERA+ with a 194 and Aaron Harang is 13th with a 137. Who would have thought the Reds would have the best 1-2 punch in the NL Central? And Volquez isn't one of them. If he gets back to last year's form, they will have the best 1-2-3 in the entire NL. Would be nice to have come October.

-Non Reds post coming later....

Outfield

The final position breakdown is here. In the past, this was one of our strengths. This season, not so much. But hey, we got rid of the lazy, homer hitting, on-base machines in the middle of the lineup and are faster and scrappier. So what if we don't score any runs. At least we are a bunch of Johnny Try-Hards who know how to bunt and run out groundball outs. Now if Dusty can teach them to swing first and never take walks, the transformation will be complete. Let's move on before I start throwing things and break it down by position:

RF
Starter - Jay Bruce (.254/.314/.453. OPS+ of 96)

He turns 22 around opening day and will be at this position for years to come. Hailed as one of the best prospects in the game going into last season, he did not disappoint. His scorching start cooled as teams saw him a second and third time but he adjusted. After tearing up May and June with a .297/.348/.426, his July and August numbers went down to .239/.277/.421. After Griffey left and gave him RF as his permanent spot in September, he hit .256/.351/.573 which is amazing for a 21 year old rookie. I think his struggle in the middle months was inevitable because teams were adjusting to him but the way he came back in September was encouraging. He learned what it was like to be a major leaguer and having to change your approach to be successful. I expect a breakout year for him now that he has an everyday job and everyday position. He should go .275/.335/.470 with 25 HR's and 95 RBI's while joining Votto and Phillips as the young leaders of the team.

CF
Starter - Willy Taveras (.251/.308/.296, OPS+ of 56)
Backup - Jerry Hairston Jr.

Last season was rough for Willy. He regressed in every hitting category from his '07 .320/.367/.382 but managed to steal more bases. He went 68 for 75 on the basepaths for an amazing 91%. Dusty plans on using him as the leadoff hitter, which is based purely on his SBs and discounts the fact that he doesn't get on base. He is moving from Coors to Great American which isn't much of a change and if he can just get on base, things could be good. His defense is average so there is not a loss there and he is still fairly young having just turned 27 on Christmas so improvment is not out of the question. I think he will benefit from the change of scenery and put up numbers closer to '07. If not there is always a replacement waiting.

LF
Starter - ?
Backup - ?

This is the biggest crapshoot on the team. The Reds spent the entire offseason looking for an everyday right-handed power bat to go here. I had an idea. The team looked into Jermaine Dye. In the end, nothing happened. Now the Reds have a bunch of guys, none of which is a everyday power hitting right-hander. Most see the front runner as Chris Dickerson. He did great in his late season call up going .304/.413/.608, OPS+ of 160. Of course that was in only 102 AB's and they were the best 102 AB's he has had at any professional level ever, so I am guessing he is not the second coming of Albert Pujols. He is left handed and his OPS fell by 200 points against left handers so he is not exactly what the Reds had in mind. He is still a 26 year old rookie who can improve and deserves a chance to play everyday sometime just so the Reds can see what they have. I think he will make the team and platoon with Hairston until he gets his feet wet or Hairston gets injured. The other players up for this spot are Jaque Jones, Johnny Gomes, Lance Nix, and Norris Hopper. The first 3 are non-roster invites and there is a reason. Hopper looked to be an up and comer until he missed almost all of last season with an injury. He hit .329/.379/.388 in his only extended major league appearance which was 307 AB's in 2007. Those numbers would be great at the top of the order if he is healthy and Taveras and/or Dickerson struggle or get hurt. I think Dickerson and Hopper make the club along with Hariston because of his versatility. That leaves one extra spot between the non-roster invites. I think it goes to Gomes because he is a right handed power bat. He doesn't hit for average or get on base so he is not an everyday player but he is a strong bat on the bench. I want him to make it for personal reasons. He brings a certain fire to the team. Also, he did something I think we all want to do, beat the crap out of the Red Sox:

The outfield should be Bruce, Taveras, and a platoon of Hairston/Hopper and Dickerson. Bruce is the only bat that would scare most teams but if the other two positions can improve and play at their best, the outfield will at least be adequate. Any struggles or injuries and the outfield will turn into Bruce and 2 automatic outs. The defense should be improved without Griffey and Dunn, but that is pretty much a given.

This concludes out look at the Reds by positions. Games begin tomorrow with the Reds taking on the Devil Rays. The run to the 2009 pennant begins then. For the Devil Rays, of course.

Team struggling, Dusty has an idea

Let's bench our hot young hitter who the fans love and want to see in favor of the worst player on the team that will get booed in front of the home fans. Great idea Dusty. Tonight it will be Corey Patterson in center and Jay Bruce on the bench. I guess Pete Rose talked to Dusty and said he needed a St. Louis win in order to cover some losses with his bookie. Either that or Corey has a story about Dusty similar to this. O well.

The Reds Sox come to town followed by the Dodgers before we hit the road for 9 tough games. The Reds could easily be 15 out in two weeks and ready to start trading some people. I just wish someone would take Patterson, Bako, or Dusty but no other organization is that stupid.

Jay Bruce Almighty

So this Bruce guy is pretty good

What a weekend for The Next Big Thing. Walkoff homer, 5 RBI's, and 100 hits is not bad for a weekend. The team looks energized, the pitching is good save for Josh "Gopher Ball" Fogg who is now on the DL, and the wins are piling up. Bruce and the boys are taking walks and coming around to score. Amazing how when it works it is not clogging the bases. It is called good baseball.

Dusty is still trying to screw it up with double steals and squeeze bunts but it isn't working. The squeeze only worked because Hairston is good and got an offspeed pitch he could handle. If that had been a fastball, it would have been a disaster. Dusty also pulled Griffey early on Sunday ensuring he would not hit #600 at home. I know he was due up sixth in the bottom of the 8th but you have to leave him in just in case he comes back up rather than subbing him out and telling the fans they won't get to see history. Way to show appreciation to the fans who showed up all weekend waiting for the hometown boy to make history.

Now the Reds have four in Philly and four in Miami. Going 4-4 or better would be huge. We are getting close to catching Houston for third in the Central thanks to the Pirates taking the weekend off and Houston taking the week off. I foresee a 5-3 road trip with a 2-2 split in Philly and a 3-1 series win in Florida. Philly is winning a scoring a lot of runs but the Reds played them well earlier this year and should be able to win the 2 games with Harang and Volquez on the mound. Florida is struggling bad, losing 5 of their last 6. As long as Bruce is playing everyday and Patterson is nowhere near the team, I am optimistic.

The Next Big Thing comes through again

I think Jay Bruce should go back to the minors until he improves. I mean he got on base 12 times in 4 games but made 6 outs which is ridiculous. We need Corey back. He only made 9 outs in one game this week. I sure am glad the Reds waited this long to make the move.

It is going to take a big day from the offense to win today because Josh "Gopher Ball" Fogg is pitching. Let's hope Bruce gets his first homer and Griffey starts hitting some homers so the slow shuffle to 600 will finally end. I don't know if it will be enough.

Quick thought on the NBA finals. I don't know who to root for. Its either the LA rapist or the most obnoxious fans in the country. Tough call. I guess I will take the LA rapist just because I want to see Boston lose to NY and LA in the last two sports championship games. And other than the rapist, I don't have a problem with the Lakers. Luke Walton and Turiaf look goofy and happy just to be on the team. Better than anything on the Celtics. I will withhold my extended thoughts on Boston and its fan for another time but for now let's just say I will be pulling for the Lakers.

Reds win again, Bruce is human

I guess everyone has to make an out and Jay Bruce finally did. It took him 6 at bats. He did however have a double that would have scored a run if Arroyo could have gotten a bunt down. The team looked great tonight at the plate, on the mound, and in the field. Great plays by Freel, EE, and Dunn, an excellent night of pitching by Arroyo and a hitting clinic from David Ross helped the Reds beat the Pirates 9-1. Harang on the mound tomorrow looking for a sweep. I don't even think Dusty can screw this streak up now that Patterson is gone. Here are some other quick thoughts:

Bruce seems to be fitting in nicely with the team. After a line drive to the gap in the middle innings, Bruce sprinted to it, tried a pop-up slide and grab the ball. It didn't work and he fumbled it a little but the runner did not advance beyond second, which is where he would have been even if he had made a clean play on the slide. After watching the rookie try so hard in a 7-1 game, Phillips started laughing and Griffey said something to him that had them both laughing. I think it is safe to say that he has energized the entire team and they are all having more fun with him out there. They were also joking with him a good bit in the pregame jog right before the national anthem. Very good vibes coming from this team ever since Dusty was suspended and they realized they didn't need him to win.

Hairston looks great at the top of the order. He works counts and finds holes. He is also stealing bases without being thrown out.

Not much of a crowd tonight. Less than 20K to see "The Next Big Thing." Hopefully after this weekend they will be above .500 and people will get excited again. I think this team will make a run and the city will rally around them.

More tomorrow but it sure was fun going to the game and watching the Reds lay it on the Pirates.harang should win tomorrow and give us a sweep. Bust out the brooms.

Great Day

Sometimes you just wake up and know it is a good day. Today is one of those days. After months of complaining that Patterson should not be playing and Bruce should, I am happy to inform everyone that my dream has been realized Tonight, starting in centerfield and batting second, is the #1 prospect in baseball, Jay Bruce. I am guessing a 1-4 night with a double and an RBI. Here is him hitting a HR for the Bats:



Hopefully that will continue in Cincinnati this year.

Now Dusty will be tested. In spring training, Bruce was sent to AAA because they wanted him to play everyday rather than ride the bench in Cincinnati. They would not bring him up until he could play everyday in Cincinnati. Now he is up. Corey Patterson is still on the team. Will Dusty play the automatic out or the best prospect in baseball? I bet Patterson still plays because Dusty is a terrible manager.

Matt Belisle tonight, other thoughts

I cant wait.

Also, if Patterson starts again with his .226/.271/.403, greater steps need to be taken against Dusty. He OPS's .674. That is horrible and good enough for last among all Reds with more than 50 AB's.

Meanwhile, Jay Bruce is at .362/.392/.669 and OPS's 1.061. Boy am I glad he is in Louisville and Patterson is starting in CF. I don't care how bad Bruce's defense is in CF, we need hitters and he provides that.

Another great night last night for the Reds on the basebaths. Griffey is thrown out badly stretching a single to a double and Arroyo is thrown out tagging up to third on a flyball. Griffey would have scored on Phillips' triple and Arroyo would have been on second with the heart of the order coming up. Another blown game due to poor coaching.

Thanks Dusty. You have forced me to drink heavily.