Red Recap, weekend wedding

So the Reds lost 2 of 3 to the Cards. Sounds about right. Carpenter and Wainwright are really good and they do have the best player on the planet. The Cubs come to town after losing 2 of 3 to the Braves. A win in this series would be nice and keep the Reds from digging too deep a hole against division opponents.

I am headed to Chattanooga for a wedding this weekend. The wife is a bridesmaid which means we get to go to all the activities and I get to drink as much as I want without any responsibilities. I even brought the seersucker since it is a week after Easter and always a big hit. As for the wedding gambling, I already took the 6-5 bet that the bride will cry during the vows and the 5-1 bet that a bridesmaid hooks up with a groomsman. Not sure on any other bets as I haven't nailed down the menu or guest list. I am betting on Prime Rib but it may turn out to be chicken and the age range may throw off the 3-1 of a guest puking outside the bathroom. It is a Catholic service so I set the over/under for bride in-bride out at 56 minutes. It will come down to the songs and the babbling priest. Could be close. Either way I get a bunch of free food, free booze, and, o yeah, seeing a few good friends get married. Almost forgot about that. This wedding could be interesting because the groom and his family own a few McDonalds franchises. I expect some burgers and nuggets for the late night drunks at the end of the reception. Maybe even a happy meal or 2.

Have a good weekend and Congrats to the happy couple Leslie and Brad. Look forward to the weekend celebration.

Predictions

Last season I did pretty well, hitting the Cardinals exactly and picking the Yankees to win the division after missing the playoffs in 08. I also hit both West divisions and got a few records very close. Pay no attention to my playoff picks. They were dreadful.

When picking who will win it all, there is one key question to ask. Will Florida win it? I don't think so. The reason that is important is because if Florida won't win, then you can eliminate the other 14 teams in the bottom half of payroll. Why? Because in the last 17 years, no team other then Florida has won the World Series with a payroll in the bottom half. Only Florida. That is it. So unless they are going to win, you can eliminate half the teams. Sorry Colorado, Cincinnati, etc. You have no chance. Sure some may make the playoffs but the point is to win and none other then the Marlins has. The economics of baseball are terrible but I still watch. I am starting to wonder why.

Ok, off the soapbox. Here are the picks.

NL East
Atlanta Braves 90-72
Philadelphia Phillies 88-74
New York Mets 80-82
Florida Marlins 74-88
Washington Nationals 68-94

The Braves and Phillies should battle all summer but I like the Braves. The Phillies will slow down when they guarantee a playoff spot while the Braves will go all out for the division. The Mets will be better but there are still too many injuries. The Marlins and Nationals will be frisky but still well below .500

NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals 98-64
Cincinnati Reds 84-78
Milwaukee Brewers 82-80
Chicago Cubs 79-83
Houston Astros 73-89
Pittsburgh Pirates 67-94

The Cards will steamroll everyone. I picked them last year when the Cubs were the consensus. Now they have Holiday, Pujols and two great pitchers. In this division that is plenty. The Reds will be better but miss the playoffs, necessitating a change in manager while maintaining some optimism for next season. The Brewers and Cubs seem like they will hover around .500 most of the season and the Astros and Pirates are terrible.

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers 89-73
Colorado Rockies 87-75
Arizona Diamondbacks 85-77
San Francisco Giants 80-82
San Diego Padres 72-90

I expect a great race that goes down to the final weekend. In the end, the Dodgers have better players. I think the Rockies take a step back after the great run last year. The Diamondbacks have the talent and can contend if they stay healthy. The Giants are constantly looking for hitting and never finding it while the Padres are bad but not terrible.

AL East
New York Yankees 93-69
Boston Red Sox 88-74
Tampa Bay Rays 84-78
Baltimore Orioles 74-88
Toronto Blue Jays 66-96

The Yanks and Red Sox continue to exploit the system and win. Awesome. The Rays will be good but an injury will lead to a 3rd place finish since they can't buy their way out of mistakes. The Orioles continue the Reds gameplan of a decade of rebuilding and the Jays got rid of their only good player in Holiday.

AL Central
Minnesota Twins 89-73
Detroit Tigers 86-75
Chicago White Sox 83-79
Cleveland Indians 78-84
Kansas City Royals 69-93

Minnesota has the best hitter in Mauer and the Tigers have the best pitcher in Verlander. Should be a fun ride to see who wins out. I think the Twins have enough to repeat but the Tigers will give them a test. The White Sox should be decent and the Indians, if healthy, will improve. the Royals will not be good for a while.

AL West
Los Angeles Angels 90-72
Seattle Mariners 85-77
Texas Rangers 81-81
Oakland Athletics 68-94

The most unfair division has been dominated by LA and I think it will continue. Seattle was the sleeper team for everyone, which negates them being a sleeper, but I still don't see them scoring enough runs. The Rangers continue improving but still not ready for a jump. Can you name a single player on the A's? I didn't think so.

I will take the Braves and Cardinals to make the NLCS with the Cardinals winning the pennant. I am afraid of Ty Cobb Pujols that much. In the AL I think the Yankees will beat the Red Sox in the ALCS. In the World Series, the Yankees will sweep the Cardinals. 200 Million dollars will do that.

Bullpen Breakdown

This was written before today's meltdown. My predictions will go up tomorrow.

Mike Lincoln (1-1, 8.22 ERA)
Daniel Ray Herrara (4-4, 3.06 ERA)
Nick Masset (5-1, 2.37 ERA)
Logan Ondrusek (N/A)
Micah Owings (7-12, 5.34 ERA)
Arthur Rhodes (1-1, 2.53 ERA)
Francisco Cordero (2-6, 2.16 ERA, 39 S)

Lincoln is not a good pitcher. He only made the team because he is owed a ton of money. The Reds tried to make him a starter to salvage anything out of him and that failed. Now he will pitch in mostly mop up duty although I am sure Dusty will let him blow a few games along the way.(ed. note: Boy did I not expect that on opening day)

Herrara and Masset both pitched well and should share set-up duties depending on who is due up for the opposition. Both are still under 28 and should continue to improve as they gain experience in the pressure of the 7th and 8th inning.

Ondrusek is the wild card. He tore through the minors last year, going from A ball to AAA and blowing away the hitters at every stage. I hope he can continue to throw smoke and keep hitters off balance until Burton gets straightened out in Louisville. These are the two young arms who could be the Reds closer in 2 years when Cordero's contract finally ends.

Owings, the former starter, is now being used in long relief and should be ready in case a spot start is needed. He seems to have missed his shot at being a full time starter and now needs to learn how to pitch out of the bullpen. I hope he can still hit because he is a nice addition to the bench as a pitch hitter. I could see him being converted to a position player if he struggles again this year.

Rhodes is the old vet of the group. He has been solid since joining the Reds and still is very good against left handers. He is in the last season of his contract and will be in constant trade talk if a contender needs a reliever this summer.

Francisco Cordero is in the 3rd year of his massive 4 year deal. The first two years have worked out well with Cordero being a top 10 closer in the majors. When he was signed, everyone questioned it. So far, it has worked out. The Reds will need it to continue working since they will not blowout many teams meaning Cordero will be called on to deliver in one and two run games often. I think he will be just fine. He has also been very helpful in mentoring the young Latin American players on the team. He has helped Volquez and Cueto in their development and I hope he will do the same with Chapman when he makes it to Cincinnati.

Starting Pitching Breakdown

The Reds finally made a decision on the 5th starter and it was a surprise. They went with the 2009 first round pick Mike Leake. He has never pitched in the minors. This should be interesting. Let's look at the staff separated into 2 distinct groups:

The Old Guys

Aaron Harang, 32 (6-14, 4.23 ERA, 1.411 WHIP, 102 ERA+)
Bronson Arroyo, 33 (15-13, 3.84 ERA, 1.266 WHIP, 112 ERA+)

After back-to-back 16 win seasons, Harang has had back-to-back 6 win seasons. His performance has not been as bad as the wins suggest but it has been a little worse. The big win seasons saw his K/BB ratio close to 4. The past 2 years it has been close to 3. In order to turn it around he will need to increase strikeouts and cut down on walks. Sounds simple but is very difficult when you are 32 years old and have over 1300 innings on the arm. I expect him to rebound and win a dozen games or so with an ERA about 3.70. He also needs to stay healthy and get back to pitching 200 innings. Dusty is the main reason for this as I talked about here and here. If Dusty took his hands off him for a full season he could be the top of the rotation guy he used to be.

Bronson does the the same thing every year. It isn't spectacular, it isn't horrendous, it just is. He always throws 200 innings and wins double digit games while losing almost the same. He has a few brilliant efforts, a few catastrophes and a bunch of mediocre outings. One red flag with him is his K/BB ratio dipped below 2. He had been in the mid 2s for the past 3 seasons so he will need to improve on that or he will struggle. Most of this is due to his K/9 rate going from 7.3 to 5.2. That is 2 balls in play that normally would have been strikeouts and over the course of a season, those add up. His BB/9 decreased a little so he will need to continue that while improving his strikeouts. I think he will boost his K/BB back up over 2 and keep cranking out 13-15 wins and 8-12 losses while throwing 200 innings.

The Young Guns

Johnny Cueto, 24 (11-11, 4.41 ERA, 1.360 WHIP, 97 ERA+)
Homer Bailey, 23 (8-5, 4.53 ERA, 1.474 WHIP, 95 ERA+)
Mike Leake, 22 (College and Arizona Fall League)

Johnny now has over 340 innings in the big leagues and seems ready to take his place as a solid starter. Last season he was able to drop his H/9, HR/9, and BB/9 from his rookie season. His K/9 also fell slightly but he kept his K/BB over 2. Still very young at 24, he should continue to improve and eventually take over at the top of the rotation if the Reds trade Harang, Arroyo, or both. He will also be a great help with the young Cuban Aroldis Chapman, another young Latin trying to make it in the big leagues with the Reds. I expect a dozen wins and a better ERA and WHIP while improving his K/9 rate. Let's hope Dusty hasn't torn his arm up yet like Volquez. Kind of feels like a ticking time bomb.

Homer Bailey is looking to build of a great finish to last season when he rolled through the final 6 weeks posting a 6-1 record and 1.70 ERA. Sure he faced some bad teams but they were still major leaguers. He has nearly 200 innings and has shown maturity in spring training by pitching well, working hard, and losing the chip on his shoulder he had with the media his first few years. His K/BB ration rose from 1 to 1.6 last season and if he can get that over 2 he will be just fine as the #4 starter. He doesn't turn 24 until May so he is still very young and has plenty of room to grow. I can't wait to see him up in Cincy on a regular basis and I think he will be the breakout star of the Reds rotation, more so then Chapman who still has a lot to learn, baseball and otherwise.

I have no idea what to expect from Leake. I have never seen him pitch but Walt trusts him enough to give him a shot. Dusty is licking his chops at a chance to give another young guy a bunch of innings. To learn more I suggest reading up on him. Here is Cnai.com's take on him getting the spot. Rob Neyer weighs in here. I'm sure more will be written since he won't actually start until April 11 thanks to an extra off day that allows Harang and extra start. I am happy the Reds went with the best pitcher, even if it may cost some money, but still a little worried at a young arm in placed into Dusty's hands. Let's hope this works out but don't be surprised with a DL trip in May or June.

I really like the 5 starters. The two old guys are horses who will take the ball every 5 days and give you above average outings. The young guys can be brilliant and frustrating but there is plenty of room for each to improve. I expect starting pitching to be a strength this season and in the future. There is also Chapman waiting to come up in May or June if something opens due to poor performance or injury. Great to have all these great arms ready to go in Cincinnati.

Left Field Breakdown

Now that the final cuts are finally made, here is the final position player breakdown.

Vs. RHP Laynce Nix (.249/.300/.502/.802, 15 HR, 43 RBI)
Vs. LHP Jonny Gomes (.307/.369/.545/.914, 5 HR, 19 RBI)


These are only their split stats since I don't see either starting very much against same handed pitchers. Nix is particularly terrible against fellow lefties. I think Dickerson will also platoon with Gomes against right handers but Nix was kept on the team for a reason and I fear Dusty will use him for his mythical veteran presence. Dusty likes his veteranness more then actual performance since Dickerson's OPS is 40 points higher then Nix. Gomes is very good against left handers thanks to his solid power and ability to take a walk if needed. This is why I had him listed in the middle of the order in my post on lineups yesterday. As a platoon these two should be serviceable with the bat and provide enough power to not let left field be a weakness. Neither is a wizz with the glove but are still mobile enough to not be a liability. Juan Francisco made the team and can play leftfield a little but is primarily a third basemen. He will probably be sent down when a fifth starter is needed after the first 10 games. Dusty has a lot of options which means more opportunity to screw it up.

Center Field Breakdown; Lineups

Drew Stubbs (.267/.323/.439/.762/99, 8 HR, 17 RBI, 10 SB)

After a slow start to his spring training, Drew turned it on and solidified himself as the starting centerfielder. He built on his power surge from last season and if he keeps it up could begin to mirror the other centerfielder in Ohio, Grady Sizemore. While last season's number were from only 200 PA's, he showed he can handle big league pitching. His 50 K's were a little high which was not ideal for a leadoff hitter. This is why I wish Dusty would get off the centerfielder-must-leadoff train and realize he is better suited for the #2 hole when there is a better choice at leadoff. He gets on base enough, has a little pop, and his strikeouts wouldn't be as bad because it means less double plays. Even if he grounds out, he is fast enough to beat out anything that isn't tailor made. The leadoff hitter should be his backup and possible starting leftfielder...

Chris Dickerson (.275/.370/.373/.743/97, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB)

He raised a bit of a fuss early in spring training because the centerfield job was essentially given to Drew without Chris having a chance at it. As spring went along Chris played well, but Drew played better and earned the job. Now Chris is up for the starting leftfield job and should be there anytime a righthander is on the mound. His career OPS is .845 against RHPs. He could also give Stubbs a day off in center if needed.

The leftfield spot isn't quite decided since Dusty decided to wait an extra day to make the cut. He has only had 6 weeks to decide, I'm sure something will change in the next 12 hours. Way to be decisive Dusty.

Lineups

A reader asked what the lineup should look like. Here are the lineups I would use:

Vs. RHP

Dickerson
Stubbs
Votto
Bruce
Rolen
Phillips
Cabrara
Hanigan
Pitcher

Votto and Bruce back-to-back would make Dusty's head explode. O MY GOD! 2 Lefthanders in a row! The reality is Votto hits lefthanders about the same as righthanders so if the opposition makes a pitching change it won't affect him, just Bruce, who is improving but still struggles against southpaws. I love this lineup because Dickerson gets on base but doesn't have much power. Stubbs gets on base and has a little more pop plus helps Dusty since it splits up lefthanded hitters. Votto should bat 3rd since he is a machine and Bruce should hit 4th since he has the most pop. In the minors he was a doubles machine and he has found his home run stroke in the bigs. If he were to come up after all those high OBP guys, he would be able to drive them in. The rest of the lineup is pretty much interchangable. This lineup gets the Reds best hitters the most AB's and more chances to drive in runs. That is the goal and how lineups should be set.

Vs. LHP

Stubbs
Bruce
Votto
Phillips
Gomes
Rolen
Cabrara
Hanigan
Pitcher

This is slightly difference but the same principles. High OBP and speed at the top. Stubbs and Bruce don't have as much pop against lefthanders but will still get on base. Votto stays at 3rd but Phillips move up to 4th since he put up.301/.342/.541/.883 against LHPs last season. Gomes starts in leftfield on those days and stays in the middle of the lineup. The other 3 can hit anywhere.

Unfortunately there is no way Dusty would employ these lineups. For some reason, he thinks it always has to be centerfielder-shortstop. No idea why. He did it with Taveras and Gonzalez last season and they were terrible. The only problem with these lineups is that there are 2 lefthanded hitters in a row with Bruce and Votto. This doesn't really matter because Votto his them just fine. Philly has put Chase Utley and Ryan Howard back-to-back and it has worked pretty well. Who would have thought Jerry Manual would be more forward thinking then Dusty Baker. O yeah, everyone is more forward thinking then Dusty Baker.

Right Field Breakdown

I was going to do the entire outfield but Centerfield and Leftfield aren't set yet. Rightfield is easy.

Jay Bruce (.223/.303/.470/.773/100, 22 HR, 58 RBI)

Jay turns 23 on Saturday and is a cornerstone of the team. That is awfully young to be one of the faces of the franchise but he seems to take it in stride. He injured his wrist last season which limited him to 101 games. Despite the lost time he still hit 22 HRs and drew a decent amount of walks. His batting average is the one area he needs to improve. If he were to hit .270, his OBP would rise to .350. That is respectable for a right fielder and something that would make him a power in the middle of the order thanks to his high slugging. If he stays healthy the entire year I could see 35 HRs and a 140 OPS+, great numbers for a 23 year old, above average right fielder.

Hopefully the Reds will make their final cuts so I can complete the breakdowns.

Shortstop breakdown

The season is getting close so let's get through these last few positions.

Orlando Cabrera (.284/.316/.389/.705/86, 9 HR, 77 RBI)

Orlando is one of the big offseason acquisitions for the Reds. He started last season in Oakland before being traded to Minnesota at the deadline. He struggled in pitcher friendly Oakland putting up an 81 OPS+ but turned it on in Minnesota posting a 94 OPS+ in the intensity of the playoff race. His defense is about average, nothing flashy but not a liability either. He brings 34 games of postseason experience with him and will help provide some veteran leadership that the Reds desperately need. I expect an improvement in the NL and GAB while maintaining his defense. Overall he is an upgrade over Alex Gonzalez, last seasons starter, and his backup Paul Janish.

Paul Janish (.211/.296/.305/.601/69)

The question with Janish has always been whether he has the bat to make it in the pros. Last season he struggled, hitting 100 points lower in OPS then Cabrara. If he could make up that deficieit he would be considered a solid player. Anything near a 90 OPS+ would be enough to secure the job but I am not sure he can do that. He can get away with his sub par batting because by all accounts he is an amazing shortstop. His range is expansive and he can make any play. There is still a chance he will improve since he is only 26 but that time is running out. For now he will backup Orlando and be ready to step in if there is an injury. I hope he can hit enough to take the job next season because he is a treat to watch with the glove.

Cabrara is the starter and will be given every chance to succeed. His hitting should be improve since he leaves cavernous Oakland in the AL to hitter friendly Great American in the NL. I expect a 95 OPS+ and average defense or let Janish have his chance.

NCAA thoughts

-I was pretty hit or miss on my picks. I thought the Big East was the best conference and Kansas would roll to the final four. Both horribly wrong. Nova, Louisville, and Marquette were bad and Kansas got caught off guard by UNI. I did pick Michigan State and Xavier to go the sweet 16. I also had Murray State who upset Vandy and came within a minute of moving on so it wasn't all bad. I did one bracket that was the opposite of what I thought and that one is dominating. I had 11 of 16 and still have 7 of 8 in Great Eight and all the final 4. Last year my instincts were right. This year my George Constanza opposite instincts are right. Funny how that happens.

-This weekends games should be fun to watch. UK will blast Cornell Thursday but in the game of life I will take Cornell every time. Their game against WVU should be fun as those are 2 of the 4 best teams left. The midwest region could be a Big Ten rematch with Michigan State vs. Ohio State. Never go against Izzo. Duke looks like they will face a tough test in Baylor but should make a final four for the first time in a decade or so. Would be fun to see them play UK in the final four. All the ghosts of tourny pasts would come out in Indy. In the West, it is a tossup. I think Cuse is the best team but Butler, Xavier and K State are all very similar. I am rooting for Xavier but none of those teams would be a surprise. 

-This is some of the best basketball of the year because you have the best teams and the most pressure. Last weekend was about upsets, this weekend is about great basketball. Making the final four is the goal. Once you get there it is just a party so be sure to watch the games Saturday and Sunday. They will be a lot of fun and there will be at least one classic game.

Third Base breakdown

Sorry this wasn't posted Friday. I drank and watched basketball for 10 hours. It was a glorious day right up until Louisville crapped on the floor.

Scott Rolen (.305/.368/.455/.823/.117, 11HR, 67 RBI)

The key phrase always used with Rolen is "when healthy." When healthy, he is a solid, everyday player. When healthy, he can hit for power, hit for average, and take a walk if needed. When healthy, he is the cornerstone of the infield making plays few others in the game can make and winning gold-gloves. Unfortunately, it keeps coming back to health.

The past 5 years he has played 56, 142, 112, 115, 128 games for an average of 111 games, or 2/3 of a season. If that average were closer to 150, he would be considered a top 25 player. Last season, almost immediately after he was acquired he was hit in the head and suffered a concussion causing him to miss 16 days. There is nothing he could have done about it, other then duck sooner, but nonetheless these things seem to follow him. He is like a third base version of Ken Griffey Jr.

The Reds extended his contract for 2 additional years in exchange for him taking a pay cut this year. That money was used to sign some Cuban, which looks to be good, but Rolen's chance of being a healthy contributor when the deal ends in 2013 is unlikely. At least the Reds seem to be trying to win now.

The other thing Rolen supposedly brings is clubhouse leadership. He is a 13-year veteran with 32 games of postseason experience including a world series win in 2006 with some team a few hours west. He is a big, commanding presence and could really help some of our young superstars like Bruce and Votto.

If he stays healthy, he can bat behind Votto, giving him some protection, and give the Reds a right hand power bat they have been lacking for years. If he gets hurt again, he will be an expensive DL player. One of the Reds best prospects is Juan Francisco, a young third basemen who can crush the ball. He also happens to strike out a lot and doesn't walk, not a good combination. In his cup of coffee last September, he did pretty well but it was only a few dozen at bats. He could make the team as a backup third basemen/left fielder or he could also be sent to Louisville to learn plate discipline and wait on a Rolen injury. The likely everyday backup is Aaron Miles, who can play basically any position but none very well.

No matter what happens, this position is an upgrade over Edwin Encarnacion and his "potential" that was never realized.

Will have another post this week about the crazy weekend of college basketball and maybe one after watching Chapman pitch tonight on FSN Ohio. He should start pitching in the 6th or about 5:30

March Madness is here

The greatest weekend in sports is upon us. Boy do I love me some NCAA Tournament. Imagine if they had one in football? Sounds boring to me too. Here are some thoughts on the upcoming basketball bonanza.

-For those wondering what the schedule of games is, what games you get in your area, and who the announcers are going to be, here is the perfect site.

-Everyone fills out a bracket and no one cares about anyone's but their own so please don't talk about it. We don't want to know. "O, you picked all the 1 seeds. O you picked your favorite team? How original? How long did it take to come up with that, 5 seconds? Let me give you a cupcake."

-Having said that (why can't Curb Your Enthusiasm have Jerry and Larry on all the time), my wife picked hers and it had 2 upsets in the sweet 16, Xavier as a 6 and Michigan state as a 5. The other 14 were seeded 1-4. Her final 8 was all 1 and 2 seeds and the final four was all 1 seeds. She is quite the risk taker. I guess she used up all her risk taking when she agreed to marry me. Doesn't get any riskier then that.

-Here are how I pick brackets. First I take the teams I know to be good because I watched them and put them through. If I see 2 teams I don't know, I look at the conference. For example, Kentucky is good. I hate them but they are good. Move along. Texas and Wake Forest are 2 teams I haven't seen much but I know the Big 12 was above-average and the ACC was below average. Texas moves on. I also look at coaching. Tom Izzo scares the life out of me. Always has. That is why the one team I didn't want my team, Louisville, to play last year was Michigan State. Sure enough they were the 2 and Lousiville was the 1. Things didn't turn out well for the Cards. Other coaches I love are Jay Wright at Nova, Bo Ryan at Wisconsin, Tubby Smith at Minnesota, Jamie Dixon at Pitt, Bill Self at Kansas, and Kevin Stallings at Vandy. These are guys that can win games most coaches can't. On the flip side their are coaches who lose games they should win. Coaches such as John Caliperi at UK, Rick Barnes at Texas, Paul Hewitt at GT, Bob Huggins at WVU, Bruce Pearl at Tennessee, and John Thompson III at Georgetown. These must be taken into account. Another thing I look for is NBA talent on underachieving teams. Georgia Tech is the poster child for this. These are players that could be 1st round picks seeded 4 or higher and they know this could be the last game in front of pro scouts so they better step it up. This works well in College Football Bowl Games but those games don't matter and these do so it isn't as big but it is something I consider.

-Quick breakdown of the Midwest region. Kansas, Kansas, Kansas. Rolls to the final four. They are the best team in the country and have been all year. It would take a total fluke for them to lose before Indy. The only way is if they get a tough game next weekend against Michigan State or Maryland then have to play 48 hours later against Georgetown or Ohio State. Those are 4 of the top 20 teams in the land playing as hard as they can to take down the kings of basketball. Could be tough. Elsewhere I see this playing close to form with Georgetown and Ohio State playing on the bottom half and Kansas and Michigan State on the top. I know the 2 best conferences are the Big East followed by the Big 12 so I have Kansas-Georgetown in the Great 8. You will see this theme again.

-In the West I like a few upsets. Syracuse loses in the Great 8 to Kansas State in another Big East-Big 12 matchup. I like Xavier advancing to play Kansas State in the sweet 16. Why is Xavier overlooked so often? They have won 6 tournament games the past 3 years and should have had more if the refs didn't protect Greg Oden and OSU in 2007. They played in a good conference, certainly as good as the Pac-10 and maybe SEC, and have a few NBA caliber players. Look out for them. On the top half I could see Cuse playing any of the 4 teams from Vandy-Murray St-UTEP-Butler. Those teams are identical. I suspect that will be the site of some upsets. Let's go with Murray St. Western KY did it from that spot a few years ago and Murray is located only a few hours from there. Kansas State should make the final four after beating Xavier and Cuse next weekend.

-The East could also see some upsets because of the level of talent. Kentucky has the best team money can and did buy but are they prepared? They played 2 games against teams seeded 1-5, both against Vandy. In order to win the region they would have to beat 3 teams in a row that are better then Vandy. Tall order for a team starting a bunch of freshman who play emotionally, and know the second they lose they start collecting huge money from sponsors, agents, etc. Not saying it won't happen but don't be surprised if they lose a round or two early. Caliperi has done that a few times. Wisconsin is a good team and should make the sweet 16 and test the University of Memphis at Lexington with physical, intimidating basketball. I see the bottom half as Big East heavy with Marquette and West Virginia both making the Sweet 16. I like West Virginia over Wisconsin in the Great 8.

-My homerism really comes out in the South region. I like Louisville to upset Duke and here is why: Louisville can play with anyone. They beat Cuse twice, beat WVU but the refs blew it(the apology from the Big East officials almost made up for it), had Nova on the ropes and even took a lead against UK in the second half in Rupp Arena. The other reason is Duke will only have 1 day to prepare for Louisville's zone and press, something no other team plays. Duke struggled away from Cameron and got embarrassed when playing Georgetown and their physical Big East style. I like the Cards for those reasons, but then again, I am a homer. For the rest of the bracket I like Texas A&M, another solid Big 12 team, to beat the Cards and make the great 8 against Nova, who dispatches Baylor. Nova then wins to make the final four.

-In the final four, I think Kansas beats K State on the Big 12 side and West Virginia beats Nova on the Big East side. Rock, chalk, Jayhawk in the finals. I know everyone is picking them but I am going with the best team. So sue me.

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Second Base Breakdown

Brandon Phillips (.276/.329/.447/.776/102, 20 HR, 98 RBI, 25 SB)

Phillips had a solid 2009 thanks to his hitting and defense. He did not win another gold glove but did finish above average in the defensive metrics. His hitting had improved as he has adjusted to being an everyday player. His walks have gone from 33 to 39 to 44 which shows he is becoming more patient at the plate. If he can get that number over 50 and continue hitting at .275 his OBP would be up to .345, a very good number for a second basemen playing great defense. His K's have also fallen the past 3 years from 109 to 93 to 75. All these are signs of a hitter coming into his own. He is only 28 and still in his prime for a few more years so he can continue to be a conrnerstone of the franchise. His backup will probably be Aaron Miles or Drew Sutton, both competing for the super-sub role. Brandon's future with the club is still somewhat of a mystery.

He makes $6.75 million this year, $11 million next year and a $12 million dollar team option for 2012. At the time it seemed reasonable but now that $11 million is way too high and the $12 million will never be touched. He wants to be a leader but it doesn't appear his teammates have totally bought in. The Reds will have to monitor how he is in the locker room to determine if he is someone they want to keep around or trade for minor leaguers and promote one of the top prospects to 2nd base. Getting all or even part of that 11 million in 2011 off the payroll would provide some financial relief, something always important to the bottom 15 payrolls who have no chance of winning the world series. His situation could get interesting if the Reds are out of it at the deadline and someone needs a solid 2nd basemen. Some of our best prospects are younger, cheaper, and can play 2nd. I hope he stays but wouldn't be shocked to see him traded in July for a prospect and financial relief.

Links to real writing

I know this is where you go for real journalism so here are a few well written, well researched, and overall amazing pieces of writing I have read the past few weeks. I implore my readers to read at least one. Try and get through them all. They are long but worth it.

-A fantastic look at Roger Ebert from Esquire. This has been going around for a while and there is a reason for it. It is really good. The picture is shocking because he had his jaw removed after cancer was found but the description of his daily life is inspiring. His blog is also good at http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/. Will Leitch has his own Ebert story here in which he apologizes for being an ass. One journalist down, 1,000 more to go for Leitch.

-My favorite author, and one of the best writers in America, Michael Lewis comes out and hits another home run. I could read this guy describe paint dry. This one is and excerpt from his new book on the fall of the economy is 2008. The piece describes a guy who foresaw the first housing decline in 70 years and made tons of money. Pretty amazing stuff if you take the time to read it.

-Couldn't get through one of these without a link to the best sportswriter around Joe Posnanski. This one is even better because it is about the Reds' new pitching sensation Aroldis Chapman. He says they hype is justified. I am really hoping Dusty is gone before his arm is ruined.

-For all those Facebook addicts, this is who is profiting off your wasted time. Our fellow (former?) writer Tom Tremendous knows first hand since he was there and this story is what actually happened. Short version: He stole the idea from people who hired him to do the programming.

-Nice article on Bobby Gonzalez in the New York Times. He is considered the biggest ass in the Big East and I can only imagine this will help as he prepares for the Big East Tourny in MSG. Good luck Bobby.

-SI's Don Banks goes after Quarterback Kobe Rothlisberger. I love watching Steelers fans get knocked down a peg almost as much as I like watching UK fans get knocked down a peg. Don't pretend you are better then every other team because you aren't, you are just like every other team, winning is all that matters, tradition and character be damned.

-Get ready for LOST tonight. Only 10 left...

-And finally, hope everyone saw the Syracuse-Louisville game. If not you can read about it here, here, or here, or check out this picture which pretty much sums it up.

First Base Breakdown

Joey Votto (.322/.414/.567/.981/155 OPS+ in 544 PA's. 25 HRs, 84 RBIs, and 38 2Bs)

Those are damn good numbers especially for a 25 year old who was also dealing with the loss of his father and other issues. After missing a week in May and three weeks in June to deal with those issues, he managed to return and play at the same high level. Let's hope this season he can stay on the field and put up solid numbers again. He should get a chance to play everyday if he is healthy. His backups will be various OF's or utility players who need a few AB's when Joey is off.

His nearest competition for the everyday job raises an interesting question on the Reds future. The development this spring is what do you do when your best prospect, Yonder Alonso, happens to play the same position as your best everyday player, Joey Votto. Does one find a new position? If so, which one? Does one get traded? If so which one?

On the one hand, Alonso has been working in the outfield and third base at times in Arizona but most scouts feel he can only play first due to his big build and lack of speed and agility. He will be a 1B/DH type and there is no sense in him learning other position if he will never see time there. That time would better be spent hitting and learning 1B.

On the other hand, Joey is a 1B. He may have the speed and agility to play LF but why would he move there? He has worked hard at first base and become above-average so why should he have to learn a new position, especially if it may effect his hitting? He has proven he can be an everyday 1B thanks to his quality hitting and improved defense. He is also the best position player and a team leader. Those players don't like to move positions (see Jeter, Derek)

The Reds are in a bit of a pickle on this one. Both players are still young and inexpensive so there is no pressing monetary reason for them to act now. However, Joey starts arbitration next season and Alonso cannot be in the minors past 2011 so it is either this season or next season when something must be done. Both have high trade values but it would be difficult to get equal value in return since the other teams are in the position of power knowing the Reds have to trade one player. I think they should try and lock up Votto for 4 or 5 years at a low salary, as most teams do with cornerstone players. (Longoria, Upton, Braun) If that happens then you show Alonso off at AAA then trade him for a stud SS prospect, stud Catching prospect, or a power hitting LF. Those are the 3 areas the Reds have the most need. If Votto doesn't want a deal or one can't be agreed on, trade him next season before he starts making big money and give Alonso the everyday 1B job. I just don't see a way for both to be on the field at the same time unfortunately.

If I were the Reds, Alonso is too much of a wild card. I make sure I can lock up Votto and trade Alonso this season. Once I get a nice return for him, I have Votto sign for 4 or 5 years, taking him to 30, and worry about the rest of the team. If Alonso becomes a star somewhere else it won't be so bad because he wouldn't have played here anyway.

1B should not be a cause for concern for the Reds until 2015 thanks to the great depth. The key is turning that great depth into other pieces that will help the rest of the team.

TV Talk

Back to the Reds position breakdown Friday. For now, I will talk about the TV I am watching.

Saturday & Sunday

-Sports (all networks, all day)

Pretty simple. This is the time you watch football, basketball or baseball and sleep to golf or nascar. The only non-sports show worth watching is Saturday Night Live which is good about one out of every four now that Will Farrell is gone. I miss him. I need more cowbell!

Monday

-How I Met Your Mother (CBS 8:00)

I was skeptical of this show because CBS always shoves it down our throats during NFL games but after watching it for a while I came to appreciate it. The writing is great and Doogie Howser and the tall guy from Knocked Up are funny. The problem is the main character is the least funny character so they have to write around him. Not sure how long they can keep that up but I will keep watching for now. It gave us the greatest joke ever: What's the difference between Peanut Butter and Jam? (Answer at the end)

-Greek (ABC Family 10:00)

It is on ABC Family which isn't the best but it is about college kids who drink and hook up, not what you would expect. The writing is good and the situations are as close to real greek life as I have seen in a TV show. The problem is it has been going for a while so the characters are supposed to be 22 but look 30. That and they need fresh characters. I think this show is about to hit a wall. Easter Egg: The main character looks hot at first until you realize she is Kelsey Grammer's daughter. Then all you can think of is that she is Fraiser with tits. Scary.

Tuesday

-LOST (ABC 9:00)

The best show on TV right now. Nothing else to say. I will miss it when it is gone.

Wednesday

-Modern Family (ABC 9:00)

The best new show on TV because it is the best written show on TV. It has the deadpan interview setup of The Office and the dysfunctional family aspect of Arrested Development. Al Bundy is the dad with a new Colombian wife and her ten year old who acts 40. The second couple is Al's daughter with 3 teenage kids and a husband going through a midlife crisis. He is inappropriate and awkward, like Michael Scott mixed with Buster Bluth. The final couple is Al's gay son and his partner who recently adopted a Chinese baby. Every couple is hilarious and their interactions are priceless. A must watch every week.

-Cougartown (ABC 9:30)

Yeah, I know, Courtney Cox is old and not funny. True. But every time I think I am out there comes at least 3 moments when I laugh out loud. Her ex-husband on the show is great and really the only reason I watch. First on the chopping block if I cut one but I will always give a show a season to work the kinks out.

Thursday

-Community (NBC 8:00)

Rough start but has come on strong the second half. Aved and Troy are the best characters and have gotten more attention now that they have stopped focusing on the will-they-wont-they of Jeff and the blond chick. Chevy Chase is unfunny but doesn't ruin it. I think the show has potential and I am glad they worked out the early problems.

-Parks and Recreation (NBC 8:30)

The first season was mediocre but this one has been amazing. I have never seen a show make the tournaround this one has. If it were a baseball player, everyone would be making PED jokes. The writing has been brilliant and the cast has really come together. The interactions make for plenty of awkward and uncomfortable scenes which I love. If you didn't like the first season, I implore you to try again. You will not be disappointed.

-The Office (NBC 9:00)

The show is still going strong. After Jim and Pam got together I thought the show was done but they have kept it going. The wedding episode was great and now they are having a baby. I think the show is starting to get redundant but I have thought it was done before. Still one of the best and, while not every episode is a home run, most are still above average.

-30 Rock (NBC 9:30)

Not sure what to make of this show. The last two seasons were amazing but this one isn't quite on that level. That doesn't mean it isn't one of the best on TV because it is. I am just worried it is on the way down instead of the way up. 30 Rock has earned a must watch but unless it picks it up the next few episodes, it will fall to the 3rd or 4th best Thursday night show. I still have hope it will turn around. Also, Alec Baldwin is amazing and the best character on any show. He makes it worth watching.

Friday

-Friday Night Lights (NBC)

This show will get its own post at some point. I know people always tell you its great and it gets so annoying that you don't want to watch it for spite but please don't do that. It is worth it. These people are right and you will regret not watching it.

Those are what you should watch. All 3 of you.

Answer to the joke: I can't Peanut Butter my dick in your ass

Catcher Preview

I planned on writing about the Olympic hockey semifinals but neither is all that interesting so I will begin my Reds preview. Today it is the Catchers.

Ramon Hernandez

-2009 stats (avg/obp/slg/ops/ops+) .258/.336/.362/.699/84, 81 games, 5 HR, 37 RBI

Ramon is 33 years old and on a steady decline. His OPS+ has gone from 111 to 88 to 87 to 84. He is a nice insurance policy for this season but Ryan Hanigan should be the full time starter by July. Ramon was injured last season and only managed 330 PA's but was passable when in the lineup. For some reason Dusty loves him. I am guessing it has something to do with his speaking spanish which comes in handy with our latin heavy pitching staff. This season he should transition to a backup and allow Hanigan to take over.

Ryan Hanigan

2009 stats.263/.361/.331/.692/84, 90 games, 3 HR, 11 RBI

Ryan is only 29 and should get his opportunity this season. Both players are essentially the same except one is on the decline and the other is in his prime and hungry to make an impression. Dusty doesn't like him because he isn't "clutch" or a "run-producer," two terms that are impossible to quantify. His RISP stats were bad but the sample size was tiny. Over a full season they should balance out and he will be just fine. His defense is also much better then Ramons. Let's hope Dusty gets his head out of his ass and let's Ryan have his chance to be an everyday catcher.

Wilkin Castillo

He is a utility player who can also catch. He should not get a start unless it is an emergency.

That is the catcher breakdown. Here's hoping Hanigan gets his shot and thrives. I am a big fan because I can yell his name with a drunken slur like an irishman. Cheers young Hanigan. Erin Go Bragh.

Little late but here are some links

I blame LOST for the lateness of it. It is only an hour show but takes at least 12 hours to digest it and even then i don't understand half of it. Here are a few interesting links I came across:

-For LOST fans, you must read Doc Jensen. He does recaps and previews of all things LOST and they are amazing. Not sure what he will do when it ends but for know he is a must read every week.

-Two of my favorite things are coming together: Maker's Mark and the 1990 World Champion Cincinnati Reds

-C. Trent continues his great work on the Reds. Nice to have good writers for this mess of a team. Some great Dusty quotes. Savor them because this will be his last spring training.

-At least the Reds aren't the Royals. They are dealing with a hot dog shooting lawsuit.

-How about 'Merica? Glad we beat America Jr. in hockey. Too bad NBC hates sports and sent it to their non-HD channel in favor of Ice Dancing. It makes sense. Let's put the one game everyone cares about in the one sport that must be in HD on our crappy non-HD channel and put the least exciting category of the most boring sport that looks the same on any TV in HD. I can't figure out why NBC is 4th in the rating with brilliant decisions like that. Apparently I am not alone in my hate for NBC's coverage.

-As March madness gets closer, here is a link that will get you excited about it and waste a ton of time.

-Finally, ladies take note. This is what you do when a man proposes to you. I knew I liked Hilary Duff for some reason

Reds, Olympics, college basketball

-Spring training has started. For constant updates I recommend C. Trent Rosecrans at CNati.com or John Fay at the Cincinnati Enquirer. They are both on site in Arizona and are posting updates and pictures from the new complex in Goodyear. Seeing green grass and blue skies after the winter we have had makes me wish spring were here right now. Alas, we still have 5 weeks.

-In the meantime we have the Olympics to keep us occupied. The reason the Olympics are so popular is because there is a clear good guy and a clear bad guy. America is of course the good guy and everyone other country is the bad guy. Not all bad guys are created equal. Some evoke more hate then others. Here is a quick list of countries I root against most, starting with most hated:

1. France-people are mean even though we bailed them out of 2 world wars. Instead of rolling out the red carpet for Americans, they treat us as second class citizens. Hey, you would be speaking German if not for us. How bout a few bottles of wine on the house Pierre?
2. Russia-We hated them for 50 years and old habits die hard. The Winter Olympics really bring it out because they mention the Miracle on Ice ever 10 seconds. By the way, who won that Cold War? That's what I thought.
3. China-I fear they will rise in coming Olympics, mainly because their country is a rising world power. France and Russia are pretty much the same as they were a decade ago but China is totally different. In 10 years they will probably win everything and own everything. I am starting the hate early.
4. Germany-You would think the country that started 2 world wars and slaughtered millions would be higher but what can I say, I enjoy beer and so do they.
   
5. Everyone else-no one else really raises my ire. The Scandinavians seem harmless and America Jr.(Canada) is too nice.

-The college basketball regular season is winding down as we sit 3 weeks from conference tourney week. Kansas looks like the best team barring a major collapse. Kentucky looks good but hasn't played a good team all year thanks to a weak SEC again. The top of the Big East is wearing each other out but should still be ready to take over March again. The rejuvenated Big 10 has potential but needs to prove someone besides Michigan State can win in the tournament before they can be trusted.

Have a good weekend, be safe, and stay away from girls with big hair.

Baseball is back and so am I

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow. The wait is over.

I am calling this season the Dusty Baker Farewell Tour. Why is it his farewell tour? Let me explain:

• He is in the final year of his contract, meaning no future monetary commitments (a big deal for a cash-strapped franchise)
  
• The organization has upgraded signifcantly at SS, 3B, and CF since last seasons opening day (I can't believe Taveras is gone)
  
• 3 years is enough time to judge(although I saw this coming after 2 months)
• The young core is ready and cheap, which will not last so they cannot waste another year of Votto/Bruce/Cueto/Volquez earning less then 2 million each
  
• The fans are antsy and the Reds can't go another decade without the playoffs (hell the Bengals have made it twice since the Reds last made it)
• The division is ripe for the taking (The Cubs/Pirates/Astros/Brewers all downgraded in talent while the Cards stayed the same and are one big injury from trouble)
  

This means either he makes the playoffs, meaning he finishes above two of the Cubs/Cards/Brewers trifecta (he hasn't beaten any of the three the past two years), or he is gone. A reasonably competent manager would win 85 games or so with this talent. Too bad Dusty is nowhere near reasonably competent. I see 80 at most, which puts us in 3rd, making him toast.

So, without further ado, let the Dusty Baker Farewell Tour begin.

I have changed strategies this season. My posts will be more consistent, but not as frequent(that is, unless they win or i get more free time). I will commit to a post every Friday and Tuesday. Other posts will come based on my availability, interest, and imagination. Just warning all 3 of you readers ahead of time.

Baseball Thoughts

Another lost season kept me away in August. Hey, at least it lasted that long. Here is what you may have missed.

-The Reds need Scott Rolen to stay healthy. I know that is like asking PacMan Jones to stay out of strip clubs or Brett Farve to stay retired but it is true. The Reds are 11-4 when he has played, all 4 losses coming to playoff contending LA and Colorado. If he stays healthy next year, an enormous if, the Reds could be good. Unfortunately, here are his total games played the last 5 years: 56, 142, 112, 115, 102, and probably about 120 this year. He also turns 35 around opening day next year. I hope he stays healthy because his OPS+ has still been 107 and 118 the past 2 years and his defense is an A-, much better then anyone playing third since Chris Sabo. I am not optimistic he can stay off the DL though.

-Dusty has completed his dismantling of the once promising starting staff. Volquez had Tommy John Surgery and is done until late 2010. Cueto is on the DL and has not been himself since May. Harang, who was ruined last season in the 18 inning San Diego game (the game that revived this blog), was ruined on almost the exact same day this season when Dusty sent him out after a rain delay of over two hours in order to get one more out, and thus a win. He was 5-4 with a 3.36 ERA at that point. After, he was 1-10 with a 4.80 ERA and his OPS against has jumped 100 points. Awesome. Now he is done for the season because his appendix burst. I bet he did it to himself in order to avoid Dusty's torture. If Homer Bailey is smart, he will lay low until Dusty is gone or he is a free agent. Save yourself Homer!

-The Reds field a minor league team every day. Currently, the Reds are starting 2 players that would actual start on a contending team, Votto and Phillips. The other 6 are bench/role players or rookies who have potential. Dusty loves role players and cast offs. Reminds him of where he will be next year. If you were the manager and the season was clearly lost, wouldn't you play the rookies to let them learn? Wouldn't any sane person? You would think. But you would be wrong. Dusty played Willy Taveras and his 45 OPS+ at the top of the order up until he got hurt. Alex Gonzalez and his 43 OPS+ continued to play and bat second until he was traded. Now that they are gone, Dusty has been forced to play Janish, a defensive whiz who is starting to hit better after Dusty sat him for all but 3 games in July and killed any confidence he had, and Drew Stubbs, who is another defensive whiz and should start everyday in 2010. Other then that, it is pretty boring. Injuries have been everywhere. I'm sure that is what Dusty will blame. Good teams overcome them, bad teams blame them. Guess which one the Reds are?

-There is still a chance the Reds could get to 4th, or even third place. They currently sit 3 games out of 4th and 4.5 games out of third. They have 6 games remaining against the Pirates and 6 against Houston. Take 9 of those 12 and it could happen. Lose and maybe Dusty will get fired. Then again, maybe not.

Another post later on the return of football.