Bullpen Breakdown

This was written before today's meltdown. My predictions will go up tomorrow.

Mike Lincoln (1-1, 8.22 ERA)
Daniel Ray Herrara (4-4, 3.06 ERA)
Nick Masset (5-1, 2.37 ERA)
Logan Ondrusek (N/A)
Micah Owings (7-12, 5.34 ERA)
Arthur Rhodes (1-1, 2.53 ERA)
Francisco Cordero (2-6, 2.16 ERA, 39 S)

Lincoln is not a good pitcher. He only made the team because he is owed a ton of money. The Reds tried to make him a starter to salvage anything out of him and that failed. Now he will pitch in mostly mop up duty although I am sure Dusty will let him blow a few games along the way.(ed. note: Boy did I not expect that on opening day)

Herrara and Masset both pitched well and should share set-up duties depending on who is due up for the opposition. Both are still under 28 and should continue to improve as they gain experience in the pressure of the 7th and 8th inning.

Ondrusek is the wild card. He tore through the minors last year, going from A ball to AAA and blowing away the hitters at every stage. I hope he can continue to throw smoke and keep hitters off balance until Burton gets straightened out in Louisville. These are the two young arms who could be the Reds closer in 2 years when Cordero's contract finally ends.

Owings, the former starter, is now being used in long relief and should be ready in case a spot start is needed. He seems to have missed his shot at being a full time starter and now needs to learn how to pitch out of the bullpen. I hope he can still hit because he is a nice addition to the bench as a pitch hitter. I could see him being converted to a position player if he struggles again this year.

Rhodes is the old vet of the group. He has been solid since joining the Reds and still is very good against left handers. He is in the last season of his contract and will be in constant trade talk if a contender needs a reliever this summer.

Francisco Cordero is in the 3rd year of his massive 4 year deal. The first two years have worked out well with Cordero being a top 10 closer in the majors. When he was signed, everyone questioned it. So far, it has worked out. The Reds will need it to continue working since they will not blowout many teams meaning Cordero will be called on to deliver in one and two run games often. I think he will be just fine. He has also been very helpful in mentoring the young Latin American players on the team. He has helped Volquez and Cueto in their development and I hope he will do the same with Chapman when he makes it to Cincinnati.

Almost made it to August

Well the Reds managed to hang around until nearly August. Not bad. Usually June is the last month to care about the team but this time they managed to make it a little longer. While still only 5.5 games back, they sit in 5th place. They would need 4 teams to tank worse then they have already and that ain't happening. Not long ago I wrote that the easy part of the schedule was over and they would need to pick it up or be left in the dust. That was before Albert Pujols ended the Reds season with one swing of the bat. Since he hit that grand slam, the Reds are 5-12. Barring a 6 game winning streak, the Reds will once again be sellers at the July 31st trading deadline. Maybe next year.

If they are trading players, here is who they should get rid of:

David Weathers-He has been above-average since joining the team which is better then most thought. His last 4 seasons with the Reds he has put up an ERA+ of 132, 130, 139, 149. Would be a nice get for any contending team looking for an extra arm in the bullpen. I wouldn't mind keeping him around but he is a free agent at the end of the year so we might as well get something for him now.

Arthur Rhodes-Has an amazing 264 ERA+ and 0.99 WHIP. Left handers are hitting a ridiculous .118/.193/.137 for an OPS+ of -5. That is unbelievable. Any team needing a LH reliever would be hard pressed to find one better then Arthur. Should fetch some nice prospects.

Bronson Arroyo-Always thrown around in trade talks, his recent scoreless streak has certainly helped. Any team needing a reliable starter would want him. You know what you are getting and he does have postseason experience. The only hangup could be his salary which has 2 more years at 10 million per. A big market team wouldn't flinch but mid to small market teams can't add that money. Depends on how desperate teams get.

Aaron Harang-I keep hearing his name but I don't think it will actually happen. He is a staple here in Cincinnati and is making a nice chunk of change at 12 million per year. It would take a strong offer to make a deal and I don't see any team that desperate right now.

As for the rest, Cordero makes too much money at 12 million per year and none of our position players are good and available. Maybe Hernandez before he got hurt but not now. I imagine the Reds will move one of the relievers by July 31 and maybe Arroyo after. You have to remember the July 31st deadline is a mirage. Players can be traded until August 31st if they clear waivers and with this economy, most non-superstar players will clear. Dunn and Griffey were both traded after July 31st last season. Look for more movement in August. Until then, let's whip the Cubs this weekend just to shove it those obnoxious fans' faces.

Bullpen

Last season was the first time in a long time that the bullpen could be considered adequate. All it took was signing an overrated closer to a ridiculous amount of money. But hey, they spent money and it worked. Wish they would do it more.

The relievers put up a 3.81 ERA last season, which is amazing because the year before the bullpen ERA was 5.13. The additions of Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln, and Francisco Cordero were the main reason along with steady improvement from Bill Bray, Jared Burton, and David Weathers. The only one of those players not returning is Jeremy Affeldt. The Reds remedied this by acquiring Arthur Rhodes in free agency. Rhodes pitched very well for both Seattle and Florida last year posting a 2.08 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and striking out better then a batter per inning. He is left handed and will probably be used as a left-hand hitting specialist, nearly the same role Affeldt played last season. In that sense, the bullpen is very similar with Cordero closing, Weather and Burton as 7th and 8th inning guys, Rhodes as lefty specialist and the Bray/Lincoln combo for anything else.

Cordero pitched well last season, converting 34 of 40 saves or 85%. He also struck out 78 batters in 70 innings. He should be improved this season because he recently said in spring training that he pitched last season with a bone spur that was removed in the offseason. Let's hope he can convert 90%. Let's also hope he gets more opportunities.

Burton was hurt for parts of last season so he was not able to duplicate his amazing rookie ERA of 2.51, but look for that form to return. The 27-year-old pitched very well in the middle of the season, posting a 0.95 ERA from late may until he was injured in late July. He finished the season with a 3.22 ERA. He is still improving and should continue to strike out better then a batter per inning as he settles into the 8th inning/future closers role.

Weathers posted his best ERA since 2003 at 3.25 and again was able to throw 70+innings. He is frustrating at times but manages to get the job done more often then not. He was signed to a 2-year deal this offseason but I would expect him to be traded to a contender in need of bullpen depth of the Reds are out of it again.

Bill Bray has battled injuries since arriving in Cincinnati from Washington. He is only 26 and posted a 2.87 ERA in 47 inning last year. If he can keep up that pace and stretch out to 60 or 70 innings, he could be a valuable member of the bullpen and the heir to the David Weathers set-up role.

Mike Lincoln was out of baseball before last season. He returned to pitch 70 innings and post a 4.48 ERA, which was about the league average. Hopefully he will improve in his second season back and the ERA will drop. Either way, he is a nice innnings eater but he is not someone you want on the mound in a pressure situation.

Overall, the bullpen looks sound with a good mix of veterans (Cordero, Weathers, Rhodes) and youngsters(Burton, Bray). The question in spring training is whether or not the flame throwing Josh Roenicke will make the roster as the final bullpen guy. He pitched live batting practice and let it fly at 98 mph. Would be nice to a change of pace from the batting practice speed of Weathers. The final spot may go to the loser of the 5th starter race, especially if Owings loses because he is a pinch hitter and relieft pitcher.

All in all, this is a solid bullpen that should be one of the strengths of the Reds.

We have now done the pitchers which means all that is left are the hitters. I will probably do the infield and outfield posts seperatly but let me warn you, it ain't looking good.