Reds keep Rolen

I must say I am shocked at how well the team has played since the debacle in Atlanta. I expected a slump and extended losing streak. I expected mental errors and poor fundamentals. None of that happened and I am starting to think it has something to do with a certain veteran infielder.

Scott Rolen is having his best season in 5 years and the rest of the team is feeding off him. His stat line is very impressive at .272/.341/.556/.897/134 for an above average, 35 year old thirdbasemen. The young guys see what he does and learn from it. Phillips has learned to take more walks, walking at a rate of 9.4% when his previous high was 6.8%. Joey Votto has improved his defense and has an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of 3.9. The next closest firstbaseman is 2.2. Bruce, who had been in a bit of a power slump until last night, hasn't let that bother him. He has put up .278/.379/.457/.836/121 while playing the second best rightfield according to UZR. Johny Gomes is have a career year. Drew Stubbs has turned it around after a terrible start. Janish and Hanigan have played so well that they could be starters at any time. And Cabrara has.....well he has some RBIs. Yeah. The big change the Reds made between last year at this time and now is Scott Rolen. Everyone talks about how seriously he takes his job and how much he works at his game. It seems to be working. As long as he is in the lineup, the team looks very confident. They are fun to watch, something that hasn't been true in recent years. So from everyone in Reds Country, thanks Scotty.

(Yeah, I am totally glossing over the fact that some of this may have to do with Dusty not sucking but I don't buy it. He still sucks. If you want to hear how great he is, you probably shouldn't visit a website entitled Fire Dusty Baker)

Movie Talk

So no Reds today. Will have something Friday.

For Christmas, my in-laws got me a book called 1001 Movies You Must See Before You Die. It is awesome and prompted me to try and see as many as I can, whether I had seen it or not. I have watched, or rewatched in some cases, about 60 thanks to friends with large DVD collections and Turner Classic Movies. Here is a quick list of the Best, Worst, and Biggest Surprises so far. I will try and update later this summer since we will be watching a lot more with the television season finished.

BEST

The Graduate - Great story, great acting, and great music. It is also referenced in a ton of movies that came later. Dustin Hoffman makes the movie with his awkwardness. He is the 1960's version of George Michael Bluth.

On the Waterfront - Marlin Brando was one hell of an actor. The fact he could make this great movie and come back twenty years later and do the Godfather is amazing. This movie has a ton of great scenes as well that are referenced all the time.

WORST

Crimes and Misdemeanors - I must be missing something about Woody Allen. Maybe its because I am not from New York but his acting is just weird. I can't relate to anything he does because I have never met anyone like him. The closest comparison is Larry David and I have never met him either. This movie bored me.

Rebel Without A Cause - I don't get it. There was no real plot and James Dean wasn't that great an actor. The fact he died tragically just before this movie was released has made people think it is amazing when in reality, I thought it was bad. Then again, James Dean isn't my type.\

SURPRISES

The Matrix - I guess the two sequels clouded my judgment because I had forgotten how good this movie was. The action scenes are amazing and Keanu Reeves overacts just enough to make it enjoyable. I would recommend everyone to rewatch it and pretend their weren't two awful sequels.

Platoon - Haven't gone back and watched Saving Private Ryan but it will be hard pressed to beat this movie. Tons of great actors all around and Charlie Sheen is pre-hooker so he is still trying to act.

And the run is over

What a 48 hours. They beat the Brewers on an amazing 9th inning comeback, head to Atlanta sky high. Then it blows up. 2 straight walk-off losses including yesterday's epic collapse. I am still recovering. This will stay with the team for a while and may well be the beginning of the end. The past few seasons have had a major turning point where the Reds lose a heartbreaking game in a similar fashion and never recover. Dusty putting Harang in and effectively ruining him in San Diego two year ago comes to mind. Now we will look back at this game as the turning point. I think the team will go downhill. There is a chance they can recover and rise above it. I don't see it happening. Maybe the Cleveland rivalry will take their minds off it but I doubt it.

This is why you have a manager. He is supposed to get his team refocused and ready to move on. This is all Dusty. Either they recover and continue to compete or they fall and the Dusty Baker Farewell Tour picks up steam. Your move Dusty.

In other news, the World Cup kicks off in 3 weeks. I simply cannot wait. Tomorrow is the final of the Champions League which will be a nice tune-up but will pale in comparison to the passion and skill of the world cup. The U.S. should be strong and will have start the tournament with a grudge match 225 years in the making when they play England June 12. Don't Tread on Me. Nike has produced a great commercial to get people excited. Here it is:

Write The Future from Nalden on Vimeo.

One hell of a run

So I managed to attend the only game the Reds have lost in the last 10 games. Sounds about right. The pitching is fantastic and the offense has done enough. Amazingly enough, Dusty seems to be doing something right which means there is not much for me to write about, so let's enjoy the ride.

CENTRAL	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	DIFF	STRK	L10
Cincinnati	23	16	.590	-	14-9	9-7	188	185	+3	Won 4	9-1
St. Louis	22	17	.564	1	11-6	11-11	166	136	+30	Won 1	4-6
Chicago Cubs	17	22	.436	6	10-10	7-12	178	190	-12	Won 2	4-6
Pittsburgh	16	22	.421	6.5	9-9	7-13	133	236	-103	Lost 2	3-7
Milwaukee	15	24	.385	8	4-14	11-10	206	222	-16	Lost 8	2-8
Houston	13	25	.342	9.5	7-15	6-10	112	176	-64	Lost 4	4-6

Game notes, Preakness notes

Made the decision to go up for the game last night with Drew, a Cards fan. Driving up there was a lot of buzz on the radio about the team. Sitting only 0.5 GB, most thought there would be a good crowd. We got seats in right field and got out there by the bottom of the 1st. Decent size crowd, numbering over 27,000, and we were treated to a pretty good game. Harang pitched decent, getting out of a first inning jam but then violating the one rule I live by, DON'T PITCH TO PUJOLS! Just before the pitch I told Drew they should walk him. Five seconds later it was 2-0 Cards. now he has confidence for the last 2 games of the series. Awesome. The Reds went down 4-0 when some scrub hit one just out of the reach of Bruce. If the wind is blowing anywhere but directly to right field, that is an out and the score stays at 2-0. Drew Stubbs clubbed one late to bring the Reds to 4-2 and the Reds threatened in the 9th. They scored one and had first and second with one out when Hernandez hit into a tailor-made 6-4-3 double play. Tough way to end.

I thought the Reds played pretty well. they fought back from down 4-0 rather then roll over as they had in the past. Dusty had an awkward episode where he yelled at the umpires for a while because they ejected Cairo. I don't get what that was about. Cairo pinch hit, struck out looking, then argued with the ump. Seemed simple but was a little too much for Dusty to wrap his head around. Typical.

The Preakness runs today. Let's hope Super Saver can win and set up an exiting Belmont stakes in three weeks. If I were a betting man, and I am since I am going to Churchill today, I would take a longshot since Super Saver is beatable. The race runs about 6 on NBC. You should watch since the Reds aren't until 7 and the NBA is taking its mandatory 5 day break in the middle of the playoffs. Got to regroup after the most likeable player got eliminated Thursday. Now the best bet is the Canuck Steve Nash. Let's hope he beats the Rapist from L.A.

Reds surging(?), and other thoughts

Is it possible the Reds can contend? It is mid-May and they sit three games behind the Cardinals and in second place in the Central. They are two games over .500 and on a three game winning streak. Dusty has hovered mostly in the below average-average range with only a few ridiculous moves. I must admit I am pleasantly surprised with how the Reds stand considering they have not played their best baseball. After this weekend they will have played nine games against St. Louis but only three against Milwaukee and Houston combined. The schedule should get a little easier and a nice winning streak could set them up to be buyers rather then sellers come July and August.

Our other national pastime, the Real World/Road Rules Challenge, is back and better then ever. The show is using Fresh Meat, meaning people who have not been a part of either show in the title. Somehow they still managed to find a dozen crazy people that they had not already whored themselves out for their 15 minutes of MTV fame. Where do these people come from? It is a similar plot with Wes and Kenny, the Magic and Bird of these things, going head to head for control of the game. Who will win?(I bet Kenny) Who will get hurt?(most likely a few of the uncoordinated girls thrown in to hook up and be bad at challenges) Who will get an STD?(Can I take all of them) I love this show.

The NBA playoffs have been very boring save for the LeBrons. Boston showed up finally but I have a feeling Stern will make the call that LeBron gets to win the next two games. The league is hemorrhaging money and the only way to get ratings is for LeBron to keep winning. Stern will get his Kobe vs. LeBron this year. Book it.

The NHL continues to be irrelevant. Wake me when it is an overtime game 7. Those are interesting.

Super Saver will be going for the second jewel of the triple crown at Pimlico on Saturday. I think he has a good shot and hope he does because it would make the Belmont much more exciting. If Super Saver were to lose, I bet Lookin at Lucky gets him.

In non-sports news, only ten days until the final LOST episode. The final season has been a bit up and down but last week's really set up what could be an amazing final run. It was a bloodbath with main characters getting killed and others getting set up for a dramatic conclusion. Doc Jensen has it covered for all you LOSTheads.

Boston thoughts

OK, I know one of my 5 readers is a Boston sports fan but I need to get something off my chest.

I hate 99% of Boston fans.

Let me say it again....I hate 99% of Boston fans.

Maybe it isn't their fault but every time I meet a new Boston fan they act like entitled, righteous, assholes. Their teams are better and more storied and their fans are more numerous, knowledgeable, and just better then everyone else. ESPN feeds into this by constantly talking about their teams. After total Boston homer Peter Gammons left I thought it would get better. What did they do to replace him? Hire both Nomar and Curt Schilling. Awesome. The Red Sox won with the most roided teams ever in 04 and 07. Before and after they have spent like the Yankees and not won anything. The Celtics were handed a championship in 08 thanks to former Celtic Kevin McHale handing them a hall of famer for nothing. Other then that gift, they were irrelevant for 20 years. The Bruins are irrelevant in an irrelevant league. May as well be a WNBA team. I think my hatred of the Shady Brady and Bill Belicheat is well known. They haven't done anything since they were forced to stop cheating. Funny how that works. So these teams are average to above-average at best. What is their reward? ESPN saying Boston is the epicenter of sports thanks to an irrelevant Bruins team playing the same day as an overmatched and bad Celtics team with the just plain bad Red Sox getting ready to get blown out in Fenway to the Yankees.

The fans in Pittsburgh are actually the center of the sports world, and it kills me to say that. They have a bad baseball team too, better hockey team, and better football team. Plus they are only a few hours from LeBron and a real basketball team. I don't remember much coverage of that city on ESPN as the epicenter of sports. Maybe they should hire Mario Lemiuex and Terry Bradshaw as independent analysts.

It wouldn't be so bad if the Boston fans didn't actually believe what they read. ESPN says we are the best so we must be. Well read this: You are not the center of the sports world. Your teams have gotten lucky and/or cheated a few times to make you relevant. Other then that you are an also-ran. You will never be New York so give it up.

Ok, I feel better. Baseball and other talk return next week.

Reds April update

Well here we stand, 13-13, tied with the Cubs for second in the division, and 5 games behind the Cardinals. Mostly boring and average. Let's see the few things that have stood out, either good or bad.

The Good

Scott Rolen (.259/.337/.481/113 OPS+, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 8 BB/11 K) - He has stayed healthy, playing in 22 of 26 games. He has been solid in the middle of the order, hitting homers and taking a walk when he has to. His defense has been a little below average thus far according to UZR but it is still a small sample size and an improvement over anyone the Reds have had their in the past 5 years.

Joey Votto (.297/.420/.495/140 OPS+, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 20 BB/24 K) - He is always solid and continues to be one of the top 15 first baseman in baseball. His strikeouts are very high but he is hitting well and taking walks when necessary. His defense has been the best on the team thus far which only adds to his value. He is the best player on the team and if he can put a few of those strikeouts in play, he could really put up amazing numbers.

Mike Leake (2-0, 2.94 ERA, 150 ERA+, 22 K/16 BB, 1.307 WHIP, 33.2 IN) - He has been the biggest surprise of the young season. He barely made the team out of spring training but has been the Reds best pitcher by far. He walked 7 his first start and 5 the second but came in with only 4 total in his last 3 starts. The team has rallied around him and everyone has been raving about his mound presence. If Jason Heyward of the Braves wasn't anointed before the season, Mike would be in the running for Rookie of the Year.

The Bad

Aaron Harang (1-4, 6.68 ERA, 66 ERA+, 27 K/ 7 BB, 1.515 WHIP, 33.2 IN) - So much for being the ace of the staff. He has simply given up too many hits and too many runs. He is still getting no run support but even with ample support he would be having a bad season. He is always a trade candidate if the Reds become sellers this summer but no one wants him with those numbers. Let's hope for a turnaround in hist last 30 starts.

Drew Stubbs (.193/.292/.313/60 OPS+, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 7 SB, 11 BB/27 K) - Bad numbers from any player, especially your leadoff man. His main problem seems to be putting the ball in play. He can take a walk and steal bases but he has way too many strikeouts. If he put half those in play his average would jump into the .250 range and OBP into the .350 range, both good number for a leadoff man. He is still very young but will not be leading off much longer unless he turns it around in May.

Orlando Cabrara (.250/.288/.348/67 OPS+, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 7 BB/12 K) - This is the one that is really frustrating because his backup Janish is hitting very well and plays much better defense. Dusty likes it because of his RBI but that is 1% of the story. The other 99% say that Janish is a better, more patient hitter with a vastly superior glove. Free Janish!

Derby post

Here is an analysis from my buddy Kyle Kaiman.

Derby, Derby, Derby!

For all the readers out there, hello.

I have been allowed to contribute to this blog even though I am a loud and forever proud Brewers fan – that is how much this blog’s author respects/wants my opinion on the “greatest two minutes in sports.”

For anyone in the Louisville area, the first Saturday in May means only one thing – the Kentucky Derby. Every year, people from across the nation flock to Louisville for this prestigious race. Some people come for the pageantry, some for the hats and others for the celebrities, but I come for one reason only; I want to make money.

This year is no different. Accordingly, I am contributing to the aptly titled firedustybaker.com (Please do not fire him; he is probably the main reason the Brewers beat the Reds.) to impart a little betting knowledge on y’all.

So without further adieu:

As a general rule, a favorite in a horse race wins approximately 33% percent of the time. In a race like the Derby, where there are so many good horses who will not be favored, DO NOT bet the favorite. One can find value in a number of horses for very big odds. For example, on Saturday, take a flier on a horse like Line of David or American Lion. Both horses have won prep races leading up to the Derby (the Arkansas Derby and Illinois Derby, respectively), and both horses will be very long odds. Morning line for both is somewhere near 30-1. That is what is called a value bet.

Since my contribution is not a betting tutorial, nor do I wish to give away all of my betting secrets and strategies, I will keep this relatively short.

Bet a horse because it feels right, not because everyone else is betting it. My advice, however, is go long in this year’s Derby and pick a horse with a big price. There is no bigger thrill than cheering for a winning horse when no one else in the section has him.

Derby Week

I have been getting ready for the greatest 2 minutes in sports coming up Saturday and recovering from Newman's Day last Saturday. I finished at 11:45 and passed out at 12:15. So worth it.

Not much going on except the Reds are hovering around .500 as they head out to St. Louis this weekend. If they can avoid a sweep I will give you some more Reds talk next week. Should have a Derby breakdown tomorrow from a guest writer. Get excited.

Random Thoughts

The Reds actually won a series. Do it again against the Padres and I will start getting excited again. Now onto other topics

-The NHL playoffs started. I can only find a few games so I haven't seen much but I finally have a rooting interest. I like Buffalo thanks to American hero Ryan Miller, the goalie from the silver medal team. Go Sabers. I also have a villain and it is the man who beat the US, Sidney Crosby. I hate him and the Penguins. Other then those 2, I will watch whoever is on HD. I cannot watch hockey without it. Hockey and Soccer are both amazing in HD. They are totally different.

-I will watch the NBA playoffs after this round. It is ridiculous that more then half the league makes the playoffs. What is the point of the regular season when just being average is good enough. Once it gets to 8, only the good teams are left. I wait until then.

-I didn't watch one minute of the NFL draft last night and couldn't have been happier. Very few of the players will have an impact next year and none will be heard from for 4 months. Wake me when they put on a jersey

-Tomorrow is Newman's Day. I participated back in college and went 2 for 3. It is a lot of fun and a good excuse to drink heavily and not give away beer. Sorry, I need all 24, can't spare one. Speaking of college....

-Yeah I was a KA. I have no comment on this story.

Enjoy the weekend and let's hope the Reds can take the series from the Padres and get back to .500

New Laptop

I missed last week after there was a laptop crash. Well I am back with a brand new computer and I must say, they sure have improved in the 3 years it has been since I last bought one. This one has HD capabilities and is ridiculously fast with more memory then I would ever need. I thought about getting an Apple but I didn't want to join a cult. If i wanted to join a cult, I would be a UK fan and live my life through Matt Jones and his fanblog. Boo cults. Yeah freedom. America.

You know what hasn't improved in that time, the Reds. A lost weekend in Pittsburgh really hurt an already struggling team. The Dusty Baker farewell continues this week with a visit from the Dodgers and Padres. I am hoping for .500, but not expecting it.

Will have more Friday once I get more acquainted with my new computer.

Red Recap, weekend wedding

So the Reds lost 2 of 3 to the Cards. Sounds about right. Carpenter and Wainwright are really good and they do have the best player on the planet. The Cubs come to town after losing 2 of 3 to the Braves. A win in this series would be nice and keep the Reds from digging too deep a hole against division opponents.

I am headed to Chattanooga for a wedding this weekend. The wife is a bridesmaid which means we get to go to all the activities and I get to drink as much as I want without any responsibilities. I even brought the seersucker since it is a week after Easter and always a big hit. As for the wedding gambling, I already took the 6-5 bet that the bride will cry during the vows and the 5-1 bet that a bridesmaid hooks up with a groomsman. Not sure on any other bets as I haven't nailed down the menu or guest list. I am betting on Prime Rib but it may turn out to be chicken and the age range may throw off the 3-1 of a guest puking outside the bathroom. It is a Catholic service so I set the over/under for bride in-bride out at 56 minutes. It will come down to the songs and the babbling priest. Could be close. Either way I get a bunch of free food, free booze, and, o yeah, seeing a few good friends get married. Almost forgot about that. This wedding could be interesting because the groom and his family own a few McDonalds franchises. I expect some burgers and nuggets for the late night drunks at the end of the reception. Maybe even a happy meal or 2.

Have a good weekend and Congrats to the happy couple Leslie and Brad. Look forward to the weekend celebration.

Predictions

Last season I did pretty well, hitting the Cardinals exactly and picking the Yankees to win the division after missing the playoffs in 08. I also hit both West divisions and got a few records very close. Pay no attention to my playoff picks. They were dreadful.

When picking who will win it all, there is one key question to ask. Will Florida win it? I don't think so. The reason that is important is because if Florida won't win, then you can eliminate the other 14 teams in the bottom half of payroll. Why? Because in the last 17 years, no team other then Florida has won the World Series with a payroll in the bottom half. Only Florida. That is it. So unless they are going to win, you can eliminate half the teams. Sorry Colorado, Cincinnati, etc. You have no chance. Sure some may make the playoffs but the point is to win and none other then the Marlins has. The economics of baseball are terrible but I still watch. I am starting to wonder why.

Ok, off the soapbox. Here are the picks.

NL East
Atlanta Braves 90-72
Philadelphia Phillies 88-74
New York Mets 80-82
Florida Marlins 74-88
Washington Nationals 68-94

The Braves and Phillies should battle all summer but I like the Braves. The Phillies will slow down when they guarantee a playoff spot while the Braves will go all out for the division. The Mets will be better but there are still too many injuries. The Marlins and Nationals will be frisky but still well below .500

NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals 98-64
Cincinnati Reds 84-78
Milwaukee Brewers 82-80
Chicago Cubs 79-83
Houston Astros 73-89
Pittsburgh Pirates 67-94

The Cards will steamroll everyone. I picked them last year when the Cubs were the consensus. Now they have Holiday, Pujols and two great pitchers. In this division that is plenty. The Reds will be better but miss the playoffs, necessitating a change in manager while maintaining some optimism for next season. The Brewers and Cubs seem like they will hover around .500 most of the season and the Astros and Pirates are terrible.

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers 89-73
Colorado Rockies 87-75
Arizona Diamondbacks 85-77
San Francisco Giants 80-82
San Diego Padres 72-90

I expect a great race that goes down to the final weekend. In the end, the Dodgers have better players. I think the Rockies take a step back after the great run last year. The Diamondbacks have the talent and can contend if they stay healthy. The Giants are constantly looking for hitting and never finding it while the Padres are bad but not terrible.

AL East
New York Yankees 93-69
Boston Red Sox 88-74
Tampa Bay Rays 84-78
Baltimore Orioles 74-88
Toronto Blue Jays 66-96

The Yanks and Red Sox continue to exploit the system and win. Awesome. The Rays will be good but an injury will lead to a 3rd place finish since they can't buy their way out of mistakes. The Orioles continue the Reds gameplan of a decade of rebuilding and the Jays got rid of their only good player in Holiday.

AL Central
Minnesota Twins 89-73
Detroit Tigers 86-75
Chicago White Sox 83-79
Cleveland Indians 78-84
Kansas City Royals 69-93

Minnesota has the best hitter in Mauer and the Tigers have the best pitcher in Verlander. Should be a fun ride to see who wins out. I think the Twins have enough to repeat but the Tigers will give them a test. The White Sox should be decent and the Indians, if healthy, will improve. the Royals will not be good for a while.

AL West
Los Angeles Angels 90-72
Seattle Mariners 85-77
Texas Rangers 81-81
Oakland Athletics 68-94

The most unfair division has been dominated by LA and I think it will continue. Seattle was the sleeper team for everyone, which negates them being a sleeper, but I still don't see them scoring enough runs. The Rangers continue improving but still not ready for a jump. Can you name a single player on the A's? I didn't think so.

I will take the Braves and Cardinals to make the NLCS with the Cardinals winning the pennant. I am afraid of Ty Cobb Pujols that much. In the AL I think the Yankees will beat the Red Sox in the ALCS. In the World Series, the Yankees will sweep the Cardinals. 200 Million dollars will do that.

Bullpen Breakdown

This was written before today's meltdown. My predictions will go up tomorrow.

Mike Lincoln (1-1, 8.22 ERA)
Daniel Ray Herrara (4-4, 3.06 ERA)
Nick Masset (5-1, 2.37 ERA)
Logan Ondrusek (N/A)
Micah Owings (7-12, 5.34 ERA)
Arthur Rhodes (1-1, 2.53 ERA)
Francisco Cordero (2-6, 2.16 ERA, 39 S)

Lincoln is not a good pitcher. He only made the team because he is owed a ton of money. The Reds tried to make him a starter to salvage anything out of him and that failed. Now he will pitch in mostly mop up duty although I am sure Dusty will let him blow a few games along the way.(ed. note: Boy did I not expect that on opening day)

Herrara and Masset both pitched well and should share set-up duties depending on who is due up for the opposition. Both are still under 28 and should continue to improve as they gain experience in the pressure of the 7th and 8th inning.

Ondrusek is the wild card. He tore through the minors last year, going from A ball to AAA and blowing away the hitters at every stage. I hope he can continue to throw smoke and keep hitters off balance until Burton gets straightened out in Louisville. These are the two young arms who could be the Reds closer in 2 years when Cordero's contract finally ends.

Owings, the former starter, is now being used in long relief and should be ready in case a spot start is needed. He seems to have missed his shot at being a full time starter and now needs to learn how to pitch out of the bullpen. I hope he can still hit because he is a nice addition to the bench as a pitch hitter. I could see him being converted to a position player if he struggles again this year.

Rhodes is the old vet of the group. He has been solid since joining the Reds and still is very good against left handers. He is in the last season of his contract and will be in constant trade talk if a contender needs a reliever this summer.

Francisco Cordero is in the 3rd year of his massive 4 year deal. The first two years have worked out well with Cordero being a top 10 closer in the majors. When he was signed, everyone questioned it. So far, it has worked out. The Reds will need it to continue working since they will not blowout many teams meaning Cordero will be called on to deliver in one and two run games often. I think he will be just fine. He has also been very helpful in mentoring the young Latin American players on the team. He has helped Volquez and Cueto in their development and I hope he will do the same with Chapman when he makes it to Cincinnati.

Starting Pitching Breakdown

The Reds finally made a decision on the 5th starter and it was a surprise. They went with the 2009 first round pick Mike Leake. He has never pitched in the minors. This should be interesting. Let's look at the staff separated into 2 distinct groups:

The Old Guys

Aaron Harang, 32 (6-14, 4.23 ERA, 1.411 WHIP, 102 ERA+)
Bronson Arroyo, 33 (15-13, 3.84 ERA, 1.266 WHIP, 112 ERA+)

After back-to-back 16 win seasons, Harang has had back-to-back 6 win seasons. His performance has not been as bad as the wins suggest but it has been a little worse. The big win seasons saw his K/BB ratio close to 4. The past 2 years it has been close to 3. In order to turn it around he will need to increase strikeouts and cut down on walks. Sounds simple but is very difficult when you are 32 years old and have over 1300 innings on the arm. I expect him to rebound and win a dozen games or so with an ERA about 3.70. He also needs to stay healthy and get back to pitching 200 innings. Dusty is the main reason for this as I talked about here and here. If Dusty took his hands off him for a full season he could be the top of the rotation guy he used to be.

Bronson does the the same thing every year. It isn't spectacular, it isn't horrendous, it just is. He always throws 200 innings and wins double digit games while losing almost the same. He has a few brilliant efforts, a few catastrophes and a bunch of mediocre outings. One red flag with him is his K/BB ratio dipped below 2. He had been in the mid 2s for the past 3 seasons so he will need to improve on that or he will struggle. Most of this is due to his K/9 rate going from 7.3 to 5.2. That is 2 balls in play that normally would have been strikeouts and over the course of a season, those add up. His BB/9 decreased a little so he will need to continue that while improving his strikeouts. I think he will boost his K/BB back up over 2 and keep cranking out 13-15 wins and 8-12 losses while throwing 200 innings.

The Young Guns

Johnny Cueto, 24 (11-11, 4.41 ERA, 1.360 WHIP, 97 ERA+)
Homer Bailey, 23 (8-5, 4.53 ERA, 1.474 WHIP, 95 ERA+)
Mike Leake, 22 (College and Arizona Fall League)

Johnny now has over 340 innings in the big leagues and seems ready to take his place as a solid starter. Last season he was able to drop his H/9, HR/9, and BB/9 from his rookie season. His K/9 also fell slightly but he kept his K/BB over 2. Still very young at 24, he should continue to improve and eventually take over at the top of the rotation if the Reds trade Harang, Arroyo, or both. He will also be a great help with the young Cuban Aroldis Chapman, another young Latin trying to make it in the big leagues with the Reds. I expect a dozen wins and a better ERA and WHIP while improving his K/9 rate. Let's hope Dusty hasn't torn his arm up yet like Volquez. Kind of feels like a ticking time bomb.

Homer Bailey is looking to build of a great finish to last season when he rolled through the final 6 weeks posting a 6-1 record and 1.70 ERA. Sure he faced some bad teams but they were still major leaguers. He has nearly 200 innings and has shown maturity in spring training by pitching well, working hard, and losing the chip on his shoulder he had with the media his first few years. His K/BB ration rose from 1 to 1.6 last season and if he can get that over 2 he will be just fine as the #4 starter. He doesn't turn 24 until May so he is still very young and has plenty of room to grow. I can't wait to see him up in Cincy on a regular basis and I think he will be the breakout star of the Reds rotation, more so then Chapman who still has a lot to learn, baseball and otherwise.

I have no idea what to expect from Leake. I have never seen him pitch but Walt trusts him enough to give him a shot. Dusty is licking his chops at a chance to give another young guy a bunch of innings. To learn more I suggest reading up on him. Here is Cnai.com's take on him getting the spot. Rob Neyer weighs in here. I'm sure more will be written since he won't actually start until April 11 thanks to an extra off day that allows Harang and extra start. I am happy the Reds went with the best pitcher, even if it may cost some money, but still a little worried at a young arm in placed into Dusty's hands. Let's hope this works out but don't be surprised with a DL trip in May or June.

I really like the 5 starters. The two old guys are horses who will take the ball every 5 days and give you above average outings. The young guys can be brilliant and frustrating but there is plenty of room for each to improve. I expect starting pitching to be a strength this season and in the future. There is also Chapman waiting to come up in May or June if something opens due to poor performance or injury. Great to have all these great arms ready to go in Cincinnati.

Left Field Breakdown

Now that the final cuts are finally made, here is the final position player breakdown.

Vs. RHP Laynce Nix (.249/.300/.502/.802, 15 HR, 43 RBI)
Vs. LHP Jonny Gomes (.307/.369/.545/.914, 5 HR, 19 RBI)


These are only their split stats since I don't see either starting very much against same handed pitchers. Nix is particularly terrible against fellow lefties. I think Dickerson will also platoon with Gomes against right handers but Nix was kept on the team for a reason and I fear Dusty will use him for his mythical veteran presence. Dusty likes his veteranness more then actual performance since Dickerson's OPS is 40 points higher then Nix. Gomes is very good against left handers thanks to his solid power and ability to take a walk if needed. This is why I had him listed in the middle of the order in my post on lineups yesterday. As a platoon these two should be serviceable with the bat and provide enough power to not let left field be a weakness. Neither is a wizz with the glove but are still mobile enough to not be a liability. Juan Francisco made the team and can play leftfield a little but is primarily a third basemen. He will probably be sent down when a fifth starter is needed after the first 10 games. Dusty has a lot of options which means more opportunity to screw it up.

Center Field Breakdown; Lineups

Drew Stubbs (.267/.323/.439/.762/99, 8 HR, 17 RBI, 10 SB)

After a slow start to his spring training, Drew turned it on and solidified himself as the starting centerfielder. He built on his power surge from last season and if he keeps it up could begin to mirror the other centerfielder in Ohio, Grady Sizemore. While last season's number were from only 200 PA's, he showed he can handle big league pitching. His 50 K's were a little high which was not ideal for a leadoff hitter. This is why I wish Dusty would get off the centerfielder-must-leadoff train and realize he is better suited for the #2 hole when there is a better choice at leadoff. He gets on base enough, has a little pop, and his strikeouts wouldn't be as bad because it means less double plays. Even if he grounds out, he is fast enough to beat out anything that isn't tailor made. The leadoff hitter should be his backup and possible starting leftfielder...

Chris Dickerson (.275/.370/.373/.743/97, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB)

He raised a bit of a fuss early in spring training because the centerfield job was essentially given to Drew without Chris having a chance at it. As spring went along Chris played well, but Drew played better and earned the job. Now Chris is up for the starting leftfield job and should be there anytime a righthander is on the mound. His career OPS is .845 against RHPs. He could also give Stubbs a day off in center if needed.

The leftfield spot isn't quite decided since Dusty decided to wait an extra day to make the cut. He has only had 6 weeks to decide, I'm sure something will change in the next 12 hours. Way to be decisive Dusty.

Lineups

A reader asked what the lineup should look like. Here are the lineups I would use:

Vs. RHP

Dickerson
Stubbs
Votto
Bruce
Rolen
Phillips
Cabrara
Hanigan
Pitcher

Votto and Bruce back-to-back would make Dusty's head explode. O MY GOD! 2 Lefthanders in a row! The reality is Votto hits lefthanders about the same as righthanders so if the opposition makes a pitching change it won't affect him, just Bruce, who is improving but still struggles against southpaws. I love this lineup because Dickerson gets on base but doesn't have much power. Stubbs gets on base and has a little more pop plus helps Dusty since it splits up lefthanded hitters. Votto should bat 3rd since he is a machine and Bruce should hit 4th since he has the most pop. In the minors he was a doubles machine and he has found his home run stroke in the bigs. If he were to come up after all those high OBP guys, he would be able to drive them in. The rest of the lineup is pretty much interchangable. This lineup gets the Reds best hitters the most AB's and more chances to drive in runs. That is the goal and how lineups should be set.

Vs. LHP

Stubbs
Bruce
Votto
Phillips
Gomes
Rolen
Cabrara
Hanigan
Pitcher

This is slightly difference but the same principles. High OBP and speed at the top. Stubbs and Bruce don't have as much pop against lefthanders but will still get on base. Votto stays at 3rd but Phillips move up to 4th since he put up.301/.342/.541/.883 against LHPs last season. Gomes starts in leftfield on those days and stays in the middle of the lineup. The other 3 can hit anywhere.

Unfortunately there is no way Dusty would employ these lineups. For some reason, he thinks it always has to be centerfielder-shortstop. No idea why. He did it with Taveras and Gonzalez last season and they were terrible. The only problem with these lineups is that there are 2 lefthanded hitters in a row with Bruce and Votto. This doesn't really matter because Votto his them just fine. Philly has put Chase Utley and Ryan Howard back-to-back and it has worked pretty well. Who would have thought Jerry Manual would be more forward thinking then Dusty Baker. O yeah, everyone is more forward thinking then Dusty Baker.

Right Field Breakdown

I was going to do the entire outfield but Centerfield and Leftfield aren't set yet. Rightfield is easy.

Jay Bruce (.223/.303/.470/.773/100, 22 HR, 58 RBI)

Jay turns 23 on Saturday and is a cornerstone of the team. That is awfully young to be one of the faces of the franchise but he seems to take it in stride. He injured his wrist last season which limited him to 101 games. Despite the lost time he still hit 22 HRs and drew a decent amount of walks. His batting average is the one area he needs to improve. If he were to hit .270, his OBP would rise to .350. That is respectable for a right fielder and something that would make him a power in the middle of the order thanks to his high slugging. If he stays healthy the entire year I could see 35 HRs and a 140 OPS+, great numbers for a 23 year old, above average right fielder.

Hopefully the Reds will make their final cuts so I can complete the breakdowns.

Shortstop breakdown

The season is getting close so let's get through these last few positions.

Orlando Cabrera (.284/.316/.389/.705/86, 9 HR, 77 RBI)

Orlando is one of the big offseason acquisitions for the Reds. He started last season in Oakland before being traded to Minnesota at the deadline. He struggled in pitcher friendly Oakland putting up an 81 OPS+ but turned it on in Minnesota posting a 94 OPS+ in the intensity of the playoff race. His defense is about average, nothing flashy but not a liability either. He brings 34 games of postseason experience with him and will help provide some veteran leadership that the Reds desperately need. I expect an improvement in the NL and GAB while maintaining his defense. Overall he is an upgrade over Alex Gonzalez, last seasons starter, and his backup Paul Janish.

Paul Janish (.211/.296/.305/.601/69)

The question with Janish has always been whether he has the bat to make it in the pros. Last season he struggled, hitting 100 points lower in OPS then Cabrara. If he could make up that deficieit he would be considered a solid player. Anything near a 90 OPS+ would be enough to secure the job but I am not sure he can do that. He can get away with his sub par batting because by all accounts he is an amazing shortstop. His range is expansive and he can make any play. There is still a chance he will improve since he is only 26 but that time is running out. For now he will backup Orlando and be ready to step in if there is an injury. I hope he can hit enough to take the job next season because he is a treat to watch with the glove.

Cabrara is the starter and will be given every chance to succeed. His hitting should be improve since he leaves cavernous Oakland in the AL to hitter friendly Great American in the NL. I expect a 95 OPS+ and average defense or let Janish have his chance.