Saturday, May 01, 2010

Derby post

Here is an analysis from my buddy Kyle Kaiman.

Derby, Derby, Derby!

For all the readers out there, hello.

I have been allowed to contribute to this blog even though I am a loud and forever proud Brewers fan – that is how much this blog’s author respects/wants my opinion on the “greatest two minutes in sports.”

For anyone in the Louisville area, the first Saturday in May means only one thing – the Kentucky Derby. Every year, people from across the nation flock to Louisville for this prestigious race. Some people come for the pageantry, some for the hats and others for the celebrities, but I come for one reason only; I want to make money.

This year is no different. Accordingly, I am contributing to the aptly titled (Please do not fire him; he is probably the main reason the Brewers beat the Reds.) to impart a little betting knowledge on y’all.

So without further adieu:

As a general rule, a favorite in a horse race wins approximately 33% percent of the time. In a race like the Derby, where there are so many good horses who will not be favored, DO NOT bet the favorite. One can find value in a number of horses for very big odds. For example, on Saturday, take a flier on a horse like Line of David or American Lion. Both horses have won prep races leading up to the Derby (the Arkansas Derby and Illinois Derby, respectively), and both horses will be very long odds. Morning line for both is somewhere near 30-1. That is what is called a value bet.

Since my contribution is not a betting tutorial, nor do I wish to give away all of my betting secrets and strategies, I will keep this relatively short.

Bet a horse because it feels right, not because everyone else is betting it. My advice, however, is go long in this year’s Derby and pick a horse with a big price. There is no bigger thrill than cheering for a winning horse when no one else in the section has him.

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