Biggest Home Series in a Decade

Biggest home series in a decade. Too nervous to focus longer then a few minutes. Here are some quick thoughts:

-After an amazing weekend in Chicago, I will refrain from Dusty bashing. He did pull Cordero Saturday instead of letting him blow it. I nearly ran on the field to take out Cordero myself after he hit Castro. Thank you Nick Masset. I will post some pictures tomorrow but suffice it to say it was very satisfying to go up there and be obnoxious after all the times I have had to put up with those assholes at GAB. Winning all 3 certainly helped. Now to whip up on the other obnoxious fans of the NL Central.

-The Reds traded Chris Dickerson for Jim Edmonds. Not too upset with this move. Dickerson could never stay healthy and had no place in the Reds future. Edmonds is a rental who will be gone next year so as to not block any of the young hitters in the minors. He also brings leadership and playoff experience and if he gets hurt, so what. We got him for practically nothing. At the very least he can give us some tips and steal some signs from his former club the next few days. He crushes RH pitchers and could be a great platoon with Stubbs and/or Gomes.

More tomorrow after the game. Go Reds!

Left Field Breakdown

Now that the final cuts are finally made, here is the final position player breakdown.

Vs. RHP Laynce Nix (.249/.300/.502/.802, 15 HR, 43 RBI)
Vs. LHP Jonny Gomes (.307/.369/.545/.914, 5 HR, 19 RBI)


These are only their split stats since I don't see either starting very much against same handed pitchers. Nix is particularly terrible against fellow lefties. I think Dickerson will also platoon with Gomes against right handers but Nix was kept on the team for a reason and I fear Dusty will use him for his mythical veteran presence. Dusty likes his veteranness more then actual performance since Dickerson's OPS is 40 points higher then Nix. Gomes is very good against left handers thanks to his solid power and ability to take a walk if needed. This is why I had him listed in the middle of the order in my post on lineups yesterday. As a platoon these two should be serviceable with the bat and provide enough power to not let left field be a weakness. Neither is a wizz with the glove but are still mobile enough to not be a liability. Juan Francisco made the team and can play leftfield a little but is primarily a third basemen. He will probably be sent down when a fifth starter is needed after the first 10 games. Dusty has a lot of options which means more opportunity to screw it up.

Center Field Breakdown; Lineups

Drew Stubbs (.267/.323/.439/.762/99, 8 HR, 17 RBI, 10 SB)

After a slow start to his spring training, Drew turned it on and solidified himself as the starting centerfielder. He built on his power surge from last season and if he keeps it up could begin to mirror the other centerfielder in Ohio, Grady Sizemore. While last season's number were from only 200 PA's, he showed he can handle big league pitching. His 50 K's were a little high which was not ideal for a leadoff hitter. This is why I wish Dusty would get off the centerfielder-must-leadoff train and realize he is better suited for the #2 hole when there is a better choice at leadoff. He gets on base enough, has a little pop, and his strikeouts wouldn't be as bad because it means less double plays. Even if he grounds out, he is fast enough to beat out anything that isn't tailor made. The leadoff hitter should be his backup and possible starting leftfielder...

Chris Dickerson (.275/.370/.373/.743/97, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB)

He raised a bit of a fuss early in spring training because the centerfield job was essentially given to Drew without Chris having a chance at it. As spring went along Chris played well, but Drew played better and earned the job. Now Chris is up for the starting leftfield job and should be there anytime a righthander is on the mound. His career OPS is .845 against RHPs. He could also give Stubbs a day off in center if needed.

The leftfield spot isn't quite decided since Dusty decided to wait an extra day to make the cut. He has only had 6 weeks to decide, I'm sure something will change in the next 12 hours. Way to be decisive Dusty.

Lineups

A reader asked what the lineup should look like. Here are the lineups I would use:

Vs. RHP

Dickerson
Stubbs
Votto
Bruce
Rolen
Phillips
Cabrara
Hanigan
Pitcher

Votto and Bruce back-to-back would make Dusty's head explode. O MY GOD! 2 Lefthanders in a row! The reality is Votto hits lefthanders about the same as righthanders so if the opposition makes a pitching change it won't affect him, just Bruce, who is improving but still struggles against southpaws. I love this lineup because Dickerson gets on base but doesn't have much power. Stubbs gets on base and has a little more pop plus helps Dusty since it splits up lefthanded hitters. Votto should bat 3rd since he is a machine and Bruce should hit 4th since he has the most pop. In the minors he was a doubles machine and he has found his home run stroke in the bigs. If he were to come up after all those high OBP guys, he would be able to drive them in. The rest of the lineup is pretty much interchangable. This lineup gets the Reds best hitters the most AB's and more chances to drive in runs. That is the goal and how lineups should be set.

Vs. LHP

Stubbs
Bruce
Votto
Phillips
Gomes
Rolen
Cabrara
Hanigan
Pitcher

This is slightly difference but the same principles. High OBP and speed at the top. Stubbs and Bruce don't have as much pop against lefthanders but will still get on base. Votto stays at 3rd but Phillips move up to 4th since he put up.301/.342/.541/.883 against LHPs last season. Gomes starts in leftfield on those days and stays in the middle of the lineup. The other 3 can hit anywhere.

Unfortunately there is no way Dusty would employ these lineups. For some reason, he thinks it always has to be centerfielder-shortstop. No idea why. He did it with Taveras and Gonzalez last season and they were terrible. The only problem with these lineups is that there are 2 lefthanded hitters in a row with Bruce and Votto. This doesn't really matter because Votto his them just fine. Philly has put Chase Utley and Ryan Howard back-to-back and it has worked pretty well. Who would have thought Jerry Manual would be more forward thinking then Dusty Baker. O yeah, everyone is more forward thinking then Dusty Baker.

Reds links

-Well the first two spring training games are in the books and the Reds have actually scored a few runs. They beat the Rays 7-0 yesterday then fell to the Twins 10-4 today. Things will change soon when some of our best leave for the World Baseball Classic. Here is the list of players.

-Chris Dickerson is filming videos for USA Today. He seems like a smart kid who reads Marketing Strategy books and started his own website for environmentally conscious players. Hey, at least it is better then being a drunk, degenerate athlete.

-SI.com takes a look at the Reds and compares them to the 2008 Rays. There are some similarities. Jonny Gomes comes to mind. Other then that, I don't really see it but CHONE projections has the Reds at 82-80. I would take that for now and that is much smarter then me.

-Maybe Taveras will be better then some think. I think he will be better then most think. He can't be any worse then this man.

Back with more tomorrow and probably another Get the Reds Out.

Outfield

The final position breakdown is here. In the past, this was one of our strengths. This season, not so much. But hey, we got rid of the lazy, homer hitting, on-base machines in the middle of the lineup and are faster and scrappier. So what if we don't score any runs. At least we are a bunch of Johnny Try-Hards who know how to bunt and run out groundball outs. Now if Dusty can teach them to swing first and never take walks, the transformation will be complete. Let's move on before I start throwing things and break it down by position:

RF
Starter - Jay Bruce (.254/.314/.453. OPS+ of 96)

He turns 22 around opening day and will be at this position for years to come. Hailed as one of the best prospects in the game going into last season, he did not disappoint. His scorching start cooled as teams saw him a second and third time but he adjusted. After tearing up May and June with a .297/.348/.426, his July and August numbers went down to .239/.277/.421. After Griffey left and gave him RF as his permanent spot in September, he hit .256/.351/.573 which is amazing for a 21 year old rookie. I think his struggle in the middle months was inevitable because teams were adjusting to him but the way he came back in September was encouraging. He learned what it was like to be a major leaguer and having to change your approach to be successful. I expect a breakout year for him now that he has an everyday job and everyday position. He should go .275/.335/.470 with 25 HR's and 95 RBI's while joining Votto and Phillips as the young leaders of the team.

CF
Starter - Willy Taveras (.251/.308/.296, OPS+ of 56)
Backup - Jerry Hairston Jr.

Last season was rough for Willy. He regressed in every hitting category from his '07 .320/.367/.382 but managed to steal more bases. He went 68 for 75 on the basepaths for an amazing 91%. Dusty plans on using him as the leadoff hitter, which is based purely on his SBs and discounts the fact that he doesn't get on base. He is moving from Coors to Great American which isn't much of a change and if he can just get on base, things could be good. His defense is average so there is not a loss there and he is still fairly young having just turned 27 on Christmas so improvment is not out of the question. I think he will benefit from the change of scenery and put up numbers closer to '07. If not there is always a replacement waiting.

LF
Starter - ?
Backup - ?

This is the biggest crapshoot on the team. The Reds spent the entire offseason looking for an everyday right-handed power bat to go here. I had an idea. The team looked into Jermaine Dye. In the end, nothing happened. Now the Reds have a bunch of guys, none of which is a everyday power hitting right-hander. Most see the front runner as Chris Dickerson. He did great in his late season call up going .304/.413/.608, OPS+ of 160. Of course that was in only 102 AB's and they were the best 102 AB's he has had at any professional level ever, so I am guessing he is not the second coming of Albert Pujols. He is left handed and his OPS fell by 200 points against left handers so he is not exactly what the Reds had in mind. He is still a 26 year old rookie who can improve and deserves a chance to play everyday sometime just so the Reds can see what they have. I think he will make the team and platoon with Hairston until he gets his feet wet or Hairston gets injured. The other players up for this spot are Jaque Jones, Johnny Gomes, Lance Nix, and Norris Hopper. The first 3 are non-roster invites and there is a reason. Hopper looked to be an up and comer until he missed almost all of last season with an injury. He hit .329/.379/.388 in his only extended major league appearance which was 307 AB's in 2007. Those numbers would be great at the top of the order if he is healthy and Taveras and/or Dickerson struggle or get hurt. I think Dickerson and Hopper make the club along with Hariston because of his versatility. That leaves one extra spot between the non-roster invites. I think it goes to Gomes because he is a right handed power bat. He doesn't hit for average or get on base so he is not an everyday player but he is a strong bat on the bench. I want him to make it for personal reasons. He brings a certain fire to the team. Also, he did something I think we all want to do, beat the crap out of the Red Sox:

The outfield should be Bruce, Taveras, and a platoon of Hairston/Hopper and Dickerson. Bruce is the only bat that would scare most teams but if the other two positions can improve and play at their best, the outfield will at least be adequate. Any struggles or injuries and the outfield will turn into Bruce and 2 automatic outs. The defense should be improved without Griffey and Dunn, but that is pretty much a given.

This concludes out look at the Reds by positions. Games begin tomorrow with the Reds taking on the Devil Rays. The run to the 2009 pennant begins then. For the Devil Rays, of course.

Patterson starts again; sure, why not

Dusty continues with his torture tactics. Dunn is gone, and Dickerson was called up from Louisville. He is a rookie and should play every day. Except that Dusty has decided he needs protection. "I'm trying to protect him some and keep his confidence," Dusty Baker said. I forgot, Dickerson is a 14 year old who loses self esteem when he gets an out not a career baseball player who has made thousands of outs. He needs to be babied because disappointment is not a part of big league baseball. Everyone succeeds and no confidence is ever shaken. It is best to not let young players know that they may fail sometimes and to stay confident no matter what. Thanks Dusty.


Tonight the Reds continue their series with the lowely Pirates. The only question is which game is more irrelevant: Reds-Pirates, Astros-Giants, or Indians-Orioles. I'll take Reds Pirates because they are a combined 25 games below .500 and are fighting for last place. Forgive me if I continue watching the Olympics. They are the best thing on television and, if you haven't already, you must watch. My favorite part is that not only can I root for any American even if I have never heard of them or even like them, but there is a specified person to cheer against every time. Sometimes, if you are lucky, the opponents are French or communist, in which case you cheer against them twice as hard because no one likes them.