Last day of boredom

This is it. The final night before 4 glorious months of football. With that said, let me make some predictions that will invariably fail.

BCS Champion: Some overrated SEC team with two losses. Happens every year because the media loves the SEC almost as much as the SEC loves itself. If they only knew that most people laugh at them for their antics and don't feel Florida or LSU were the best team the past two years. Louisville would have played a good game against Florida(hell they almost lost to south carolina and arkansas) and USC would have whipped LSU even with their home-field advantage.

Runner-Up: Oklahoma. They will run through their 10 easy games and 2 hard ones(Texas and Mizzu) but choke again in a BCS game. Or as I like to say, they will pull an A-Rod and choke under pressure(this is a total joke. A-Rod is the best player in the league and gets the worst rap. Their is no such thing as clutch.)

Heisman: Knowshon Moreno. He is amazing and in the SEC. The media will drool.

Big East champ: Louisville. Hey, why not. If Louisville doesn't win the Big East title, I blame Dusty Baker.

Speaking of Dusty, he continues to play Patterson and Bako while foregoing the youth movement of Sully Hanigan and any other outfielder. Here is a quote from Hal McCoy's blog, "asked if Bako’s work with Volquez and Cueto made him a candidate to return next year, Baker said, 'Yeah, I think so."' That is so great to hear. I can't wait to hear his excuse for why Patterson needs another shot in CF.

He's Back

Hello all. I decided that since Boose was able to take a month off, I'd treat myself to a similar hiatus from the blog. Since I left, the Reds have decided to give up on this year and the next few by selling off two of their best bats for some young prospects who they can nurture to the point a contending team will be willing to trade more prospects for them. I look forward to writing about that in a few years (assuming at least one of them avoids flaming out and is with the club in 3 years). The good news is that this frees up money to resign Corey Patterson. Unlike Boose I think Patterson just needs to play everyday so we can see those 5 tools produce. None of this production will show up on the stat sheet, but can you put a price on his grit, hustle and determination? I would say no.

Also we've seen Boose go on countless rants against the BoSox, which seems odd given we have 10 readers and one of them is a Red Sox fan. While I equally hate the fake fans from Boston who pretend to have lived through the tough years, I also envy them. I wish I could just pick a winning team and then feel the joy of a championship. But such is not our lot in life as loyal Reds, Bengals and UofL fans. We should be one with our Boston brethren who had to endure years of heartbreaking losses by the Sox, terrible play by the Pats and the depressing Ricky P years of the Celtics. Problem is those fans have been drown out by the new breed of Boston fan, who once knew someone that knew a kid that went to BC so they've always followed Boston sports. We hate those people. Also the true Boston fan who lived through the down years, can you remember what it is like to follow a franchise that clearly does care about winning? Do not look down from your new found success and ridicule us, but rather throw some support behind the hopeless Cincy fan base. We are good people, who just want to feel that management does care and is willing to field a competitive team. We've been close to the mountaintop (A cheap shot on Carson Palmer's knee away from beating the eventual super bowl champs, 1 win against a hapless Brewers team from heading to the playoffs and a false start against Rutgers away from playing for the national championship). All those memories seem so distant as the future of our 3 teams looks extremely bleak.

With the reds 2008 and 2009 seasons are pretty much over, we shall turn our focus to the Bengals and Cards. I'm pulling for the Cards to either make a miracle run through the Big East and win 10 games or pull a Kragthorpe and lose 10 games leading to his immediate dismissal and being replaced by Ron English. On the Bengals front, we need to steal a few games early in the season while the team is banged up. If we can stay .500 while Chad, Rudi and TJ get healthy we can make a run at it.

Well this has been another long Tom post, which I hear many of you do not enjoy reading. If it makes it easier, break it up throughout the week. Maybe 1 paragraph a day (Granted if you have made it to this point my advice is no longer helpful, so yes i see the flaw here).

Reds beat the Cubs; still can't hit

Arroyo pitched a gem last night and the Reds held on for a 2-1 win. Great effort from Bronson but pitching hasn't really been the problem recently. The problem for most of the second half and all of the 9 games since Adam Dunn was traded is offense. Since Adam Dunn was traded the Reds are averaging 3.1 runs per game. The Diamondbacks are averaging 6.6. But hey, the Reds haven't clogged the bases as much. Their OPS was .727 before the trade and .659 since the trade. So the Reds plan was, we are having trouble scoring runs, let get rid of the player who gets on base the most and drives in the most runs. Brilliant.

Now our two best OPS+ numbers belong to Encarncion, a 25-year old 3rd basemen who has yet to develop a solid hitting approach and plays sub-par defense, and Joey Votto, a 24-year old rookie who is still learning to be a big-league hitter and plays sub-par defense. Brandon Phillips has a great slugging percentage but refuses to take a walk, Keppinger and Bruce have come back to earth, Dickerson and Rosales have only been Reds for 20 minutes and don't get me started on Bako and Patterson. I don't know where the runs are coming from. Must be all that speed running our popflys. But I do feel better after receiving a letter from the owner and GM.

There is a new poll which should be interesting. Which fans are the most annoying: Cubs fans, Cardinal fans, or Red Sox fans? Let me give you a quick breakdown.

Cubs fans-these are people from all over the country who want to be cool. Most are "consultants" who are overeducated and underemployed. They claim to have always been a fan of the Cubs but few can name a manager before Dusty Baker and Sweet Lou came to town. They are loud, obnoxious, and generally piss everyone off who is not a Cubs fan. They are currently driving the second largest bandwagon in baseball and, if they fail to make the playoffs for a few years, will lose 50% of the fans. They wish they were as good as Boston or as historic as New York and have a real inferiority complex about being the "Second City." Most hated in St. Louis, Milwaukee, and any other Midwestern city

Cardinal fans-these fans are a fairly loyal bunch, having strong ties to Missouri, western KY, and southern IL. The real problem with them is they think they are the most knowledgeable fans in baseball even though there is no way to prove it. This leads to many of their fans saying asinine things that are totally wrong in order to show their baseball knowledge. When confronted with facts to back up the opposite point, they ignore it and scream louder. While Cubs fans wish they were on the east coast, Cardinal fans wish St. Louis was as good as Chicago. They have a Midwestern envy. Most hated in Chicago, KC, Cincinnati.

Red Sox fans-they are so touchy nowadays. As recently as 2003, they were the tortured losers with a devoted following whom everybody felt bad for and rooted for. Now they are the largest bandwagon of obnoxious and fair weather fans. They spend insane amounts of money to buy championship caliber teams and still wish they were the Yankees and had 26 titles. Always the 2nd most important team in baseball and they can't stand it. They get angry when someone questions their loyalty or passion(as evidenced by the comments from earlier posts) and fail to see the humor when called out about it. They have won 2 world series in the last 4 years and will be more then happy to tell anyone and everyone about it. Most hated everywhere but New England.

Reds lose again; Dusty continues to amaze

Dusty decided that last night was a great time to start Corey Patterson in Chicago. Earlier this year I posted a video of what happens in the bleachers when Corey starts. Dusty ignores this and sends him out there to misplay balls and not get hits. Well done.

The Reds are reduced to playing spoiler. Not going to happen. The Reds can't score more then 3 runs a game which is something we all knew was coming. Even with a great outing like last night from Cueto, there is no offense to pick him up. Sure would hate to have a player with a very high OBP and VORP whose name rhymes with Fadam Gunn. But I guess we had to get rid of him because of his defense, since a little below average defense offsets his powerful offensive arsenal. Saving 10 runs a season is more important then driving in 100 runs and hitting 40 HR's. Now the owner and GM write a letter to the fans telling them to be patient. This is the same man who said 3 months ago that we weren't going to lose anymore. But they did and now they are wandering aimlessly. No plan. No blueprint. Just losing. 8 years in a row.

Now that the season is over let's get to some Olympics talk. These Phelps and Bolt guys are pretty good. I don't what I am to do these next few days without them. I guess I could focus on the Walsh-May team but they only have one more game. Gymnastics is over and the Men's Basketball is a cakewalk. Any suggestion? There are still some gay divers and manly women throwing shotputs but I will have to pass.

Reds pitching; Thank God for Volquez

Dusty has a reputation for being tough on pitchers. Some of it is true; some of it is not true. Did he overuse Prior and Wood early in their careers? Yes. Have either of them been healthy the last 3 years without Dusty? No. Wood has at least pitched some the past two years but Prior has never been healthy. SI did an article about Tim Lincecum discussing mechanics of pitchers and noted that Prior had a terrible delivery that was an injury waiting to happen. Wood has rebounded and, if he can stop getting blisters, can remain relatively healthy. Neither is throwing 120+ pitches on a regular basis like they did in 2003.

Dusty has seemingly learned from that. Volquez has not exceeded 120 pitches in any outing this season (but he did throw 39 on one days rest) and Cueto has not either while throwing 100+ in only 11 of his 25 starts. Not bad on the young arms. Volquez has struggled since the 39 pitches on 1 day rest debacle. Some of that can be contributed to regressing to the mean but he has posted a 3.65 ERA and 1.3+ WHIP. He was at 1.34/1.2 before that but those number could not be sustained. Overall, Volquez still has an ERA+ of 165 and should pitch no more then 200 innings. Much better then most anticipated but a few more days rest before the end of the year to keep his innings at 180 would be nice. The season is over and we are going to need him for many years if the Reds will ever compete for a playoff spot. This season the Reds are 17-9 when he starts and 38-61 when he does not. Ouch.

Cueto has been up and down which is what can be expected from a rookie pitcher. He has an ERA+ of 92 and a WHIP under 1.4, not bad for a 22 years old rookie who had only pitched 4 games above AA ball before this season. His ERA has dropped the past 2 months and he should continue to improve his final 6 starts while throwing around 190 innings. Not bad for a rookie. The Reds are 10-15 when he starts but he has gotten 3 or fewer runs from his offense in 14 of those 25 starts. A little more luck and he can finish with a .500 record.

Harang has been a disaster this year. He began the year pitching well and getting no run support. After the 4 innings on two days rest in San Diego back in May, he has been terrible. Check out the difference:

Pre-Dusty Destruction: 3.50 ERA and 1.2 WHIP.
Post-Dusty Destruction: 9.06 ERA and 1.9 WHIP.

This was the ace of the Reds the previous 2 years and now he is getting beaten like a red-headed step child. I put the blame on Dusty because he had been pretty good before the debacle in San Diego. Now he reminds me of "Batting Practice" Danny Graves. The Reds are 8-14 when he starts. Just terrible from the ace of your staff.

The rest of the staff has been alright. Arroyo pitches different every time out but stays healthy and the Reds are 13-13 when he pitches. Fogg started terrible and has come back to be what a 5th starter usually is, 5 innings, 3 runs. Bailey didn't have a good run but is only 22 and should be given more time. Volquez was 1-10 when he was 22 so I will give Homer a few more years. Thompson showed signs of greatness but needs more development. Belisle was not good and is now injured.

The bullpen has actually been mediocre, which is a huge improvement over a year ago. Burton has pitched well when healthy as has Bill Bray and David "Stormy" Weathers. Cordero has been great at times and awful at times. Maybe a 4 year deal wasn't the best idea but he has not been that big of a disappointment. ERA+ of 115 and a few blown saves.

Overall, the pitching staff needs to be tweaked a little, making Volquez and Cueto the 1-2 punch and Arroyo and Harang 3-4 with Homer, Thompson, or anyone else getting the 5 slot. I sure hope Dusty does the smart thing and eases up on Volquez and Cueto because we will need them healthy for the next few years because this season is done. Chicago this week. Let's spoil the fun up on the North Side. Their fans need to come back to earth.

Live Blog of Poo-holes at-bats

I have always said that Ty Cobb Pujols should be walked every time he bats. Whether bases loaded no outs or bases empty two outs, walk him and let the rest of the team beat you. His first AB will be just after 7. He must be walked. NO MATTER WHAT. Dusty will pitch to him and we will lose. I've seen it a bunch of times.

6:20-Corey Patterson starting again. Why not? He is all the way up to a .227 OBP and 47 OPS+. Great numbers. I am already excited.

7:15-Top1, Pujols first AB. 1 out man on 2nd. 1st base is open. WALK HIM. Pops to 1st on first pitch. Very close to a homer. Got out of that one but probably won't be that lucky again.

7:53-Top 3, no on, no outs. WALK HIM. I know it the stats may not say to walk him but I say let him go. He mashes one down the line, upper deck, but 25 feet foul. Another bit of luck. And a double. Didn't see that coming. He is squaring very well on the ball. Don't give him anything to hit. His first at bat, pitching to him saved a run. This time, he is in scoring position for 3 straight batters. After an out a single puts him on 3rd with one out instead of second with one out. A walk then he scores on a badly turned DP. Man the Reds suck.

8:22-Top 5, no on, no outs. Another time to WALK HIM. He throws a great pitch and jams Pujols. Pop out. Props to Arroyo. Finally fooling Pujols after getting lucky the last two times he batted.

8:53-Top 7, no on, one out. WALK HIM. His OPS+ when facing a pitcher 3+ times is 171. Double. Hit it right on the button. Didn't see that coming.

9:38-Top 9, no on, two outs. WALK HIM. He is 2-4 with 2 doubles. He has crushed one to the upper deck just foul and barely missed another that ended up being a VERY high pop out. His OPS+this season vs. LH is 208. Ripped to LF for a single. 3-5, 2 doubles, 3 hard hit balls, one near miss, and one tape measure foul ball. Ankiel hit one good ball and nothing else. Not that it would have mattered because the Reds were gonna lose either way. A .222 team average for August isn't winning many games.

I love America; and I hate commies

So glad to see the American women beat the commie cheaters last night in gymnastics. I mean, alleged cheaters. Hey, if the state run age authority, state run athletics, and state run media say she is 16, then she must be. Except that the state media said she was 13 last year and 14 early this year. But those were just typos. Glad the state run media corrected itself only after it was caught by a free-thinking society. I mean if you can't trust the commies then who can you trust right.

Phelps goes for 7 tonight at 10:10. He should dominate. He has 2 swims left until he gets an entire week at the drunken orgy known as the Olympic Village. In Athens 4 years ago they handed out 75,000 condoms. That wasn't enough. In Beijing they are giving out 100,000. Now throw in the greatest Olympic champion ever with 8 gold medal around his neck. He will be more worn out after next week then he will be after this week.

Make sure you set the alarms for tomorrow morning as well. The men's 100m is tomorrow morning at 10:30. Should be very exciting to see Tyson Homosexual go up against the two Jamaicans. I am just going to assume everyone is free of drugs even though there is no possible way it is true. That is like going to a Red Sox game and thinking that fans actual care about the game. Most would rather wear their pink hats and talk on their cell phones just like track and field will always have athletes trying to beat the system. O well, still better then watching the Reds trot out Corey Patterson and The Human Out Paul Bako play everyday.

I received a comment regarding Dunn's defense and was a bit surprised at what I found. Anyone who has watched the Reds remembers awful plays he has made in the field like dropping flyballs, misplaying line drives, and making terrible throws. They do not remember his running catches and assists to nail a runner going to second. Baseball Prospectus has some complicated fielding statistics but the one constant is that this is his best defensive season and he has cut down on his runs allowed above average. Last year his rate2 was an 86 meaning he gave up 14 more runs per 100 games then an average LF. 100 is average and any number above or below that is how many more runs you save or give up per 100 games. This number is adjusted for ballpark, position, and normalized over time. This means a bad SS will give up more runs then a bad LF because a SS gets many more plays and can create or save many more runs. For example, Ozzie Smith averaged about a 115 meaning he saved 15 runs per 100 games above average. Derek Jeter is an 89 this year meaning he gives up 11 more runs per 100 games then an average SS. That is not good but at least he won the Gold Glove last year with a 98 or 2 runs per 100 games below an AVERAGE SS. That makes sense.

Now where was I. O yeah, Adam Dunn's defense. To put Dunn's 07 season in perspective, Barry Bonds had an 87, or was one better then Dunn's 86 last year. Ouch. This year, however, he is at a 95, very close to an average LF. He has improved greatly over the last 5 years to the point that his defense is no longer a liability and getting very close to average. O yeah, he also hits 40 HR's a year and gets on base 38% of the time, better then anyone else on the Reds. He can play a little below average in LF if he can be the most productive hitter in the lineup. I will take that trade-off anyday.

Dear ESPN, stop copying me

So I cruise over to espn.com and stumble upon a Keith Law article about the Adam Dunn trade. He quotes his great OPS and how his strengths are much greater then his deficiencies, exactly what I wrote a month ago when arguing to keep Dunn. I brushed that off because anyone with a functioning brain, which excludes Reds management, knows Dunn is very valuable. Then I read Jayson Stark's Rumblings and Grumblings, he also says that Dunn is a great asset. He further takes a shot at Dusty, wondering how Patterson has gotten 242 at bats, but anyone who knows baseball wouldn't give him that amount of at bats. Then he points to Aaron Harang pitching on two days rest as a terrible decision and a possible cause for his struggles. Where have I heard that before? These things are clear though, and any good baseball writer would point these out. But when I read Rob Neyer's blog entry today I realized that ESPN really is reading me. Last night I pointed out that Reds-Pirates was the worst game on TV and used other examples as well as the fact that they are a combined 35 games under .500. This morning, Rob Neyer throws out some numbers to see what the best and worst games were last night and concludes, as I did, that Reds-Pirates was the worst. THE VERY NEXT MORNING he takes the same idea I had, adds a few numbers, and writes it as his own. More then a coincidence and bordering on plagiarism. Now I know that I have finally made it in the blogosphere. If I can get linked directly to another blog then I may have to retire from my job at Wendy's and finally move out of my mother's basement. ESPN loves me. If I could only get Deadspin to take notice, then it would be over.

The Reds end the series in Pittsburgh tonight before hosting the DUI LaRussa and the rest of the Redbutts, including the great Felipe Lopez, centerpiece of the big trade 2 years ago who was cut by Washington last week. When the worst team in baseball cuts you, that means you don't belong on a major league roster, except of course St. Louis. They love taking the Reds leftovers. He, Jason LaRue, Ron Villone, Kyle Loshe, and Ryan Franklin all played for the Reds this decade. All of them have since been cast off by another team before winding up on the Cards. Hopefully we can win a few to knock them out of the playoff race. As I stated last time, walk Albert "Ty Cobb" Pujols every time he bats and hope the HGH twins are on a down cycle.

Patterson starts again; sure, why not

Dusty continues with his torture tactics. Dunn is gone, and Dickerson was called up from Louisville. He is a rookie and should play every day. Except that Dusty has decided he needs protection. "I'm trying to protect him some and keep his confidence," Dusty Baker said. I forgot, Dickerson is a 14 year old who loses self esteem when he gets an out not a career baseball player who has made thousands of outs. He needs to be babied because disappointment is not a part of big league baseball. Everyone succeeds and no confidence is ever shaken. It is best to not let young players know that they may fail sometimes and to stay confident no matter what. Thanks Dusty.


Tonight the Reds continue their series with the lowely Pirates. The only question is which game is more irrelevant: Reds-Pirates, Astros-Giants, or Indians-Orioles. I'll take Reds Pirates because they are a combined 25 games below .500 and are fighting for last place. Forgive me if I continue watching the Olympics. They are the best thing on television and, if you haven't already, you must watch. My favorite part is that not only can I root for any American even if I have never heard of them or even like them, but there is a specified person to cheer against every time. Sometimes, if you are lucky, the opponents are French or communist, in which case you cheer against them twice as hard because no one likes them.

Dunn traded: I don't understand why

Adam Dunn is gone. Traded to Arizona. Amazing. His BA has dropped this year but he has put up a .233/.373/.528 and an OPS+ of 131, VORP of 24.9, both are the highest on the team. He is the most valuable bat in the lineup, can change the game with one swing, in the prime of his career, plays average defense, is the longest tenured Red, and the face of the franchise. Now he is gone and the young guys like Bruce and Dickerson get to learn how to play the outfield from the only other healthy outfielder, Corey the Great. Freel becomes the longest tenured Red and other than Bruce and Votto, there is no position player who will bring in fans.

If Dunn left after the year the Reds would get 2 picks in the top 100. If they were to trade him they would have to get a solid, young, major league ready prospect with very few questions of whether or not he will play in the majors. What did they get? They got a 23 year old, 3rd round draft pick, right-hander in high-A ball who has already had Tommy John surgery and two players to be named later, which of course means two players destined to stay in the minors. Horrible. Now there is no chance of him coming back next year and leaves the Reds with all their hopes for offense on the late developing Phillips and Encarnacion with Votto and Bruce still learning to play while trying to carry the middle of the order. I guess Corey really threatened Dusty with the incriminating pictures and now that Dunn is gone, he is guaranteed more playing time.

I am left speechless. I have pleaded with the Reds to lock Dunn down long term. They traded him for a bag of peanuts, some splintered maple bats, and a cactus from Arizona. There is no face of the franchise. Jay Bruce is now forced to carry the team on his 21 year old shoulders. Harang is turning into a mediocre pitcher and, not surprisingly, the young pitchers seem to be wearing down the more Dusty sends them out there for 110+ pitches. The season is over and, as for next season, I am almost ready to throw in the towel. Thank god football is almost back. The ineptitude of the Reds makes me long for Mike Brown and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Another losing season, now come the stupid moves

Quick game: Who do you release?

Both these players play the same position and are equal in defense.

Player A: 36 years old, .216/.289/.340 in 78 games and an OPS+ of 63
Player B: 31 years old, .231/.381/.366 in 52 games with an OPS+ of 96

Player A right. Well, if you were Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty you would pick Player B. Player B is David Ross who had some injuries early in the year and was starting to round into form. Player B is Dusty favorite, "The Human Out" Paul Bako. He had a great April and since then has OPSed 55, 38, 28, 29 the past four months. I had to check those stats twice. Are you serious? He isn't even a good rookie ball catcher. Ross has gone 125, 69, 154, and 43 and only had 15 AB's in August so his 43 needs more work. It is still considerably higher than Bako.

There is no reason, I mean NO REASON, to let Ross go and keep Bako. Bako is done as a big league player. Ross is still useful as a backup or an injury replacement. He has played well in Cincinnati and has a good relationship with the pitchers. Bako must have pulled a Corey Patterson and gathered some leverage on Dusty. My guess is Bako kidnapped Dusty's chihuahua Princess. Now Bako needs to let the little rat go so he can be released and the Reds can make the sensible move of allowing Ross to compete for a starting job now that he is healthy.

Corey Patterson continues to be a Red, defying any logic. He continues to OPS+ 46, receive a pay check, and keep the Reds from playing any young players. Granted the Reds may not have any prospects left in AAA, but any player, even one from Rookie ball would be better than Corey. He will be out of baseball after this year so there is no reason to have him on the team. They need to move on.

Tomorrow I will address the bonehead moves in the pitching staff. Who knows, they may release Bill Bray and recall Todd "Decaf" Coffey, tell Dunn they won't resign him then give an extension to Patterson. Why not reward the weak and punish the strong. It would only make sense after what happened today.

I'm back; what happened to this team

Well, the Bar exam is over and I am back on the blog. The Reds have continued the trend of beating opponents above .500 while losing to teams under .500. As of today, the Reds are 22-21 against teams >.500 and 29-37 against teams <.500. This means they are not taking bad teams seriously. Whose job is it to make sure they play heard every day regardless of the opponent? O yeah, Dusty Baker. The Reds need to win all three in Washington in order to stay in any kind of a playoff race. They are nine back of the wild card and will need a ton of help but losing three striaght series' to bad teams will end it.

Now onto the Griffey trade. I like it. Griffey wasn't exactly tearing it up. He had an OPS+ of 103, or just above average. Not very good for a #3 hitter. Now either Dunn, Bruce or Phillips can take that spot and we can have someone who can slug when Hairston and Keppinger get on base. Bruce doesn't have the best statistics since his amazing first week but putting him at the top of the order will get him more at bats and help him develop more quickly. The other great thing about this trade is that it will give Dunn, Bruce and Hairston a two month audition for what the outfield should be next year. Either way, Dunn is now the longest tenured Red and it is his team. If the team continues to play pretty well and can get above .500 by the end of the year, the Reds will have to keep him and as our loyal readers know, keeping Adam Dunn is essential to the Reds having any kind of success in the future.

As for the blog, it will take a bit of a break. Your great contributors are going on vacation until August 9th. I know this is devastating for you but the comments are still available and you guys can argue amongst yourselves until our return. Until then, lets hope the Reds can pile up some wins and the Brewers and Cards come back to .500. Either that or Dusty gets fired but that would render this site moot so no one wants that just yet. Oh who am I kidding, of course I would like that.