LCS Predictions

Well I got 3 of the 4 series right. The one I got wrong just happened to be my world champion. Hey, it's not my fault CC turned into Eric Milton, Prince Fielder turned into Corey Patterson, and Ryan Braun became Paul Bako. Now onto the LCS. I have a good feeling about these.

Phillies - Dodgers

The Phillies looked good in the first round and now have homefield. They also have some pitcher named Christopher Gruler. O wait no. That is who the Reds chose ahead of their real pitcher, Cole Hamels. Hamels should win 2 games in the series but who will win the other? Brett Myers? The same Brett Myers who was so terrible he was sent to AAA earlier this year and is now pitching in the biggest game of his life. I think he may revert back to his pre-minors form. Who else? Joe Blanton? His statistics have been average with a 106 ERA+ but he went to the University of Kentucky. Probably too interested in being mediocre in football and overrated in basketball to concentrate. The 45 year old Jamie Moyer is all that is left. By the way, he was once a teammate of Davy Lopes who was a teammate of Hoyt Wilhelm. Hoyt was born in 1922. It took only one common teammate to go from Jamie Moyer to a man who played at the Polo Grounds for the New York "Baseball" Giants under Leo Derocher. That is old. And his 71 mile an hour fastball won't fool Manny. He will sit back and crush it.

The Dodgers on the other hand have young players who are still fresh but lack experience in big games. Some people think this is bad but I think it can be good. Say your team has been beaten in their last 3 straight playoff series. They have experience but it is of losing and getting tight in big games. If they didn't have that experience, they would probably be better off. These Dodgers don't have those bad experiences(I am looking right at the Angels and Cubs). Manny has some pretty damn good ones. Their pitching is pretty solid with Lowe, Billingsley (taken 10 picks after Ryan Wagner), Clayton Kershaw (chosen one pick ahead of Drew Stubbs,), and whoever else they throw out there. They also have 4 time Cy Young award winner Greg Maddux if needed. Overall, the teams look pretty even.

In the end though, I like Joe Torre over Charlie Manual and Manny Ramirez over anyone else. I'll take the Dodgers in 7. And if you think this is a pick just because I hate Philly fans and want them to be miserable, well, you are right.

Rays - Red Sox

Another one where everyone likes the road team. Most of it is because Boston controls most of the media and can make it say practicly anything. Did you know the Red Sox are the greatest team with the greatest fans ever? I didn't until I heard and read all about it. I thought they finished in second in their division despite spending $90 million more then the first place team. I guess I thought the team that finished first was better.

As for the series, I originally picked the Rays in 7. I am sticking with that but I am not quite as sure. The Red Sox did as I expected and woke up for the playoffs. They have become the San Antonio Spurs of baseball meaning they coast through the regular season then turn it up for the postseason. If Beckett were 100% they would have the advantage. If Manny were still there, they would have an advantage. Without that, the teams are equal so I will take the home team in 7 and yes, it has something to do with my dislike of their "fans."

Tampa has great pitching, a great bullpen, and good hitting. They also have speed so if Boston does what they say and pitch Wakefield (I don't think they will), the Rays will steal all over the place. But who knows. These teams were pretty even in the regular season and should be pretty even in this series. A couple bounces one way or another could change the game. I am rooting for the young, entergetic, worst-to-first, low payroll team. I guess I am somehow hoping this is what the Reds become. Too bad we would need a competent manager.

Post Script: So the Reds could have had Cole Hamels and Chad Billingsly. Instead we drafted two guys who are not in the majors. We also missed Kershaw by one pick for a guy who is 25 and still not in the majors. I sure hope Walt Jocketty knows what he is doing because all the other GM's we have had sure screwed the pooch.

FINALLY OVER!!!

Break out the champagne! Ring the bells! The long wait is finally over!

No, the Reds have not won anything in over a decade but Walt Jocketty came out and said the most glorious words any Reds fan could hear today: Corey Patterson will NOT be back in 2009. This is cause for celebration. And this time real celebration, not the wake up on the coach, stay drunk for 48 hour, celebration I had last week after passing the bar. I'm gonna party Michael Irvin style.

Playoff Predictions

Before the playoffs begin let me give you my thoughts:

Cubs-Dodgers

I smell and upset. The Cubs have red flags all over the field. They haven't played a meaningful game all of September thanks to the total tank job of the Brewers. Big Z has also struggled his past two starts and, if you throw out the no hitter which was against a ravaged Houston team worrying about their city and homes disappearing while playing a "home" game in Milwaukee, he hasn't had a quality start since August 14th and that was against the Reds. Ryan Dumpster takes the ball in game one and any long-time Reds fan knows he is not as good as advertised. Call me a skeptic but how does a pitcher have far better numbers then he has ever put up at age 31 in a hitter's ballpark. His WHIP is .300 lower then his career average(that is a big number) and his ERA+ is 152, 32 points higher then his previous best season which was when he was 23 and in his prime. Something doesn't look right. 31 year-olds don't do that naturally-er-normally.

I think LA will steal one in Chicago then win both at home to take the series 3-1. I am mostly picking it because I hate these fans. And they will be coming out of the woodwork this week. Look out.

Brewers-Phillies

CC is a monster. I think he can win two games by himself. No questions asked. Just goes to show you how much of a difference there is in the two leagues. While he was good in the AL, he is untouchable in the NL. That leaves the Brewers only needing one more win. I think Ryan Braun will get one big hit and win that game for them, as long it isn't needed today(Rosh Hashanah) or next Wednesday (Yom Kippur). You probably didn't even know he was Jewish. See, you learn something new every day when you read the blog. So keep doing it. Or else.....

I will take the Brewers in 5. Good series but Ryan Howard can't hit lefties and that will come back to haunt them against CC. But, if Gagne pitches, all bets are off. He is like 3 Corey Pattersons rolled into one.

Red Sox-Angels

One team is the defending world champs and the other hasn't played a meaningful game since before the all-star break. Got to take the Red Sox. As much as I hate them, they have the best team. That is what you get when you spend 9 figures every year for a decade, and not just on their major league team, they fill their minors with best talent money can buy. Good for them and bad for everyone else. They will be loaded for a long time thanks to no cap and a ridiculous international system where any good player will be snatched up by who spends the most, not through the draft. Why isn't there a seperate international draft? O yeah, because baseball wants the big market, rich teams to be good and an international draft would hurt that. The rich keep getting richer thanks to good ole Bud.

Boston in a sweep. The Angels are good but the Red Sox get bored in the regular season. They will turn it on now that they are on the big stage. I just wish Boston fans weren't so obnoxious. I'm not the only one.

White Sox-Rays

Love the Rays. They are what the Reds could be if they could draft and develop talent. Almost all of their team is home-grown or acquired in trades for other home-grown talent with a few, low-level fre agents thrown in. They have been winning all year in the toughest division in baseball. Now they get the White Sox who are in "we are just glad we made it" mode after winning three tough games the last three days. The Rays should handle them easily and, although it would be nice to see Griffey make a run at a championship, I think the Sox don't have enough left.

Rays in a sweep. Pitching is too good and wait until you see David Price. He pitched against Louisville in the AAA playoffs and his stuff is filthy. He is better then Joba was last year but without the New York media machine to tout him.

Those are the first round predictions. Here are the rest quickly but I will provide more once the first round ends and my picks inevitablly fail. Brewers over the Dodgers in 6 thanks to CC showcasing for his future employer, Rays over Red Sox in 7 because of the advantage in the giant pinball machine, and Brewers over Rays to win it all. Why not? The Badgers just choked away their season, Brett Farve is gone, what else do they have in Wisconsin? And anyway, anything is better then listening to insufferable Cubs or Red Sox fans talk about how great their team is even though they couldn't name more then 10 players. Go Brew Crew!

Awards Part II

Here are some more awards:

Greg Vaughn Award (Best new hitter acquisition) goes to........

Jerry Hairston Jr. I almost confused him with Jerry Hairston Sr. Thank goodness he keeps that Jr. on the end. This is the one Dusty signing that didn't tank. He played well when not injured. Unfortunately, he only managed 80 games and 260 AB's. If he could stay healthy for an entire season, he could be useful. Too bad he hasn't played more then 120 games since 2002 and will be 32 next season. It was a good run for him but he is not the answer for next year's Reds. Having said that Dusty will resign him and Patterson and give them each starting jobs then be totally confused when the Reds only win 60 games.

Danny Jackson Award (Best new pitcher acquisition) goes to.......

Edinson Volquez. Coco was a close second. I know Coco had his ups and downs but it was recently revealed that he had a problem with his foot all year. Add that to his 136 ERA+ and having an anchor in the ninth to open up Weathers and Burton for the 7th and 8th, major trouble spots for last years Reds and Coco comes in a close second. Volquez is the winner. I would trade Josh Hamilton again in a hearbeat. I would give his stats but I have a feeling he will get another award.

Chris Sabo Award (Best rookie hitter) goes to.......

Joey Votto. Could make a good case that he is the Rookie of the Year in the NL. Here are his and Soto's numbers. Guess which one are his.

Player A: .297/.368/.506, 32 2b's, 24 hr's, 84 rbi's, 124 OPS+
Player B: .285/.364/.506, 25 2b's, 23 hr's 86 rbi's, 122 OPS+

Eerily similar. Votto is player A and looking at purely offensive stats, he is better. Soto plays a much tougher position on a team headed to the playoffs so he should win the award. I'm just saying that it is close. I think he isn't going to win because all the voters hate Canadians like Votto. I know I do.

Scott Williamson Award (Best rookie pitcher) goes to.......

Johnny Cueto. He had his ups and downs but at the end of the day, you have to remember that he is 22 years old, started 31 games and won 9 times, threw 174 innings while posting a 94 ERA+, and 158 K's. If he continues to improve, he, Volquez, Harang, and Arroyo could be the more formidable top 4 in the division. Owings, Bailey, and any other pitcher simply need to hold down the 5th spot and the rotation is set.

Johnny Bench Award (Best Hitter) goes to.......

Adam Dunn. I know he only played on the team until August 10th but he put up another monster year with 32 hr's and 74 rbi's in only the 113 games in a Reds uniform. His OPS+ of 130 is tops among regular players and his 197 OPS+ with RISP and 2 outs shows he got it done when it mattered. I love the big donkey, and I miss the big donkey.

Mario Soto Award (Best Pitcher) goes to......

Edinson Volquez. He was electric. His struggles after the all-star break took him out of contention for the Cy Young but he was still a legit all-star who could strike out 10 batters any start. Here are his stats: 24 years old, 32 starts with 17 wins, 196 inning with an ERA+ of 140, and 206 K's. Ridiculous numbers from a kid who is still improving. Another year of work under the tutalige of Mario Soto and he could be one of the top 5 starters in the NL.

Dave Miley Award (Most clueless manager) goes to.......

Dusty Baker. He needs to be fired now and replaced with a competent person. Hell, I will take someone with a pulse at this point. Anyone would know Bako and Patterson can't play baseball. O well, the blog will continue until my dream is realized and someone else is managing my beloved Reds.

Awards for the season part I

Now that the Reds season is mercifully over and another losing season is in the books let me hand out some awards. I will try to have some positive ones and not give all the bad ones to Dusty but it will be tough after suffering through this 74-88 debacle.

Onto the awards:


Eric Milton Award (worst performance by a Reds free-agent pitcher) goes to........

Josh Fogg. He was supposed to be a shrewd signing by former GM Wayne Krivsky. It turned into a disaster. His stats go as follows: 2-7 in 14 starts and 8 relief appearances, 7.58 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 17 HR's allowed in 78 innings. Batting practice pitchers put up better numbers.

Juan Castro Award (worst performance by a Reds free-agent hitter) goes to..........

Corey Patterson. Was there any other choice? 3 million for a 48 OPS+. The only personnel director who thinks this was a good move is Mike Brown. But at least he hasn't been arrested 50 times like Brown's players.

Art Shell Award (worst performance by a coach) goes to.......

Brook Jacoby. This team was known for their good hitting and terrible pitching. Dick Pole somehow fixed the bullpen just in time for Jacoby to stand by while our hitters regress. Griffey nose-dived, EE failed to progress, and, if not for the rookies who were untainted by Jacoby, they would have been the worst line-up in the National League.

Entourage Award (most disappointing season from a formerly good player) goes to.....

Ken Griffey Jr. Aaron Harang would be the easy answer but I blame most of his struggles on Dusty. Griffey never got going and has only been worse since joining Chicago. Not once have I heard his name discussed. We all expected a big season if he stayed healthy. Well he was healthy and failed to produce. His season reminded me of Entourage last season. Everyone expected big things, then every week revolved around one stupid movie. We don't watch Entourage for the acting. The acting is awful. We watch it for the partying and fun side of Hollywood.

Friday Night Lights Award (most under appreciated player) goes to.....

Adam Dunn. The man was an amazing baseball player who loved the game, his teammates, and the city of Cincinnati. That is very hard to find. I wish more people would realize this and appreciate it just as I wish more people would appreciate FNL. The best show in TV is relegated to Directv this fall because ratings were so bad and Directv offered to pay some of the costs. Now all I need is a friend with Directv.

That is all for today. Come back tomorrow for more. (you didn't think I would give you all of them now. I need to increase my hits from 8 to 16.)

Dusty's terrible moves

So many bad moves it is difficult to remember them all. Here is a quick list of the easy ones. Feel free to add any others.

-Playing Corey Patterson. This is listed first for obvious reasons. Dusty loves Corey and not because he is dating Dusty's daughter. Dusty had to come out against that rumor in the papers. Corey must love Dusty because he is on pace for almost 400 PA's and an OPS+ of 48 while making 3 million. The move was done because Dusty wanted it done. Now he keeps playing Corey hoping he will turn it around and make the investment worth it. I wish someone would wake him up and tell him the season is over and getting some rookies some extra AB's and experience would not be a bad idea

-Playing Paul Bako. Like Corey, this is another of Dusty's guys he brought in and continues to throw out there even though he is 36, and has an OPS+ of 58 while his heir apparent, Ryan Hanigan, has an OPS+ of 90 in very limited action. Maybe he should play more because John Fay did some checking and found the Reds are 14-8 when he starts and the pitchers have a 3.68 ERA. So Bako is a worse hitter and he calls an equal or worse game. Why is he playing again?

-Overusing some young arms. Volquez has pitched 200 innings. 24 year olds who, 2 years ago pitched only 120 innings, should not throw 200 innings for a 5th place team. Cueto is 22 and will pitch over 180 innings this year. These two are the cornerstone of our future. They should have been given more days off in September once the season was essentially over. Better to have them in September next year for a few more starts then overwork them this year.

-The San Diego debacle. Aaron Harang was ruined for two months thanks to Dusty's terrible decision making. Aaron threw 4 innings on 3 days rest. He went into a total tailspin after that and landed on the DL. Hopefully he will be back to 100% by the beginning of next year so he can return to his old form. Without him, the Reds will be in big trouble.

What else?

Back with power and a look-back

After 8 days without power thanks to hurricane Ike, the blog is back and running. The Reds decided to celebrate me not being able to watch by playing good baseball. They won close games and the pitching has been fantastic. They look like they are playing against a bunch of AAA guys and guys who just want the season over. O wait, that is who they are playing against. It sure is easy to win when you are the only ones trying.

The Reds have clinched another losing season, making it eight in a row. Their record will look pretty good, somewhere around 75 wins, but don't let that fool you. This team hasn't played a meaningful game since June and the surge is not the result of trading Adam Dunn. Before Dunn was traded, the team scored 4.3 runs a game. Since then, they have scored 4.5 against September rosters and teams simply playing out the string. The real reason for the 22-16 record since the Dunn trade is the team ERA which was 4.65 before and is 3.81 since. WHen you allow nearly a run less a game, the record will improve. That is not rocket science.

This recent run of success will only make Dusty look better, which as we all know, is bad for the Reds. Over the next few days we will relive some of his worst decisions. After that, we will wrap of the season with some awards and look forward to next year. Stay tuned.

Football picks

Since we all know the Reds will sweep the Adam "I am the reason my team doesn't win" Dunn, let me make some picks for the interesting games of the weekend:

South Florida will handle Kansas tonight. Kansas has played such a terrible schedule the last 2 years, losing their only big game to Missouri last fall. USF looked bad last week but they were on the road in front of a very hostile 50,000 people. The friendly confines of Tampa will help them.

Wisconsin will struggle with Fresno, but still win. This game reminds me too much of Wisconsin-UNLV from last year. They travel cross country to play the biggest game that school will have all year. The Badgers will look bad but still win by a TD or so.

Georgia will beat the other USC. Spurrier will hang around for a half but Georgia, injuries or not, is too good in the end. If Georgia somehow loses, that does not bode well for the SEC.

Half of America will fall asleep during the Michigan-Notre Dame game. No points will be scored. The over/under for this game is 37.5. And I like the under. Wake me when it is over.

If I were a betting man, I would do a two team parlay with Auburn, giving 11 to a terrible Mississippi State team and the Georgia Tech money line over Va Tech. The Hokies have no offense and the Jackets have been good in both of their games. This should pay about 4.5 or 5 to 1.

As for the NFL, who really cares. I do like that I can bet on NE and either they win, and I get money, or they lose and I am happy. Maybe that will make my Sundays interesting.

Reds finally winning

Well it took the Reds being eliminated from the Central race for them to start playing well. They have won 8 of 11 thanks to the young guys stepping up. Bruce has a ridiculous 1.400 OPS in his 8 September games and Votto is at 1.222. Corey Patterson is even having a great month with his .296 OBP, easily his highest of the season, and his 7 hits in 8 games makes this month better then June and July hitswise. His 47 OPS+ is threatening Gabor Paul II Bako and his plummeting 55 OPS+ for worst on the team for players with over 200 AB's. If he went by Gabor and not Paul I would like him a lot more. Bako has been horrible recently going .135/.214/.162 in his last 11 games yet he continues to start when Cueto and Volquez are on the mound. Dusty doesn't want to start Hanigan because Bako has caught those two for all of 5 months and he doesn't want to mess with that. Someone should tell him these guys are professional baseball players who really don't care who is behind the plate and starting Hanigan will set us up better for next year when, godwilling, Bako is gone. Once again, Dusty amazes.

On to football. HUGE game this weekend between the Trojans and Buckeyes. Should be a dandy for a few quarters until USC pulls away in the second half. If I were a betting man and gambling were legal, I would take the Trojans as long as I wasn't giving up more then 14 points. USC has won a ton of big games under Carrol and they are nearly invincible in the Colesium. OSU is a nice little squad that has struggled in big games on the road recently. USC 31-OSU 14.

As for the NFL, a bunch of boring games last weekend(saw that one coming) with only the Carolina-SD game being interesting. Hopefully we will get a few more good ones this week but I doubt it.

Here is a link to another Ryan Parker song(he did the Jay Bruce almighty one). This time it is about the silver lining now that Brady is done for the year.

Weekend Thoughts

Another season, another disappointment for the friends of fdb. I haven't commented on the UofL Cardinals terrible performance a week ago at home against UK, because I was just too angry. After taking a week to think about it, I'm still too angry to talk about it. Kragthorpe should go, it is clear. He has taken a national contender and turned them into a CUSA also ran. I will no longer waste my breath as clearly UofL has decided it is a basketball school. Football is expensive to maintain anyway, and it is difficult to recruit. I'm glad I no longer have to watch the Cards games on Saturdays and can focus on other teams. Also can try to make some money (if gambling were legal) by taking USC and going against ND (trust me it will work out for you).

After what I saw on Sunday, I'm now forced to go against one of my rules regarding yelling at one of our 4 fans. We received a comment praising the work of Kimo Von Whateverhisname, when he took out Carson Palmer at the knee. After watching fans cheer as Brady limps off the Field this weekend, I must say something. There is one thing to cheer for your team and hope the opposing team doesn't play well. That's fine, you always want to win and if that means your opponent pulls a Kragthorpe (or Dusty) and just sucks that's fine. But cheering for someone to seriously hurt his chance to ever play again is downright sick. Maybe it is people who have never competed in sports, but athletes all have a healthy respect for each other (and yes this includes divers. I would never cheer for anyone to hit his head on the board risking serious injury. That would just be sick.). You never want to see someone knocked out of a contest due to injury. I would equate cheering as Carson Palmer is taken off the field to someone standing over Big Ben as he lays on the ground after his motorcycle accident cheering. I don't like Tom Brady and want the Patriots to lose everygame, but I don't want some freak accident (or malicious cheap shot, however you see it) to be the reason. Tom Brady is a fantastic athlete who works very hard at his craft, to hope this is taken away from him is like wishing Michelangelo would have fallen from the Sistine Chapel ceiling.

Sorry if I offended FDB nation, but you can't seriously want your team to win soley by destroying someone else's livelihood. Could you?

Another glorious weekend

Well the Reds managed to stave off a sweep by the Pirates yesterday. And all i took was getting Fogg, Patterson, and Bako off the field. Funny how that works. I wish someone would have thought of that months ago. All we can hope for is to beat the now reeling Cubs. The fans, voted here as the most annoying, are panicking because their constantly overworked starter, Fat Z, has tendonitis in his shoulder and Harden has a dead arm. Fat Z's "tendonitis" is more serious then it sounds. A starter who goes from a 96 fastball to an 89 fastball, as he did in his last start, has more wrong then tendonitis. Harden is always injured and one has to assume that he will not pitch another meaningful inning the rest of the year. The Reds will get a chance to play spoiler in front of a "home" crowd. Home is in parenthesis because there is no way more than 30% of the fans will be rooting for Cincinnati. Most will be dressed in blue, drinking bear, yelling obnoxiously and pretending like they care about what is going on.

The real fun this weekend happens on the gridiron. Two full days of football. Saturday's games aren't all that great but. hey, I'll take mediocre college teams (Vandy vs. South Carloina) over that snoozefest between the Giants and the Racist Nicknames last night. Look out for the 'Dores. They must be a top 20 team if they can win a game in the SEC. From what I hear, only about 15 teams qualify as good enough to beat an SEC team and 11 of them are already in the conference. The highlight of Saturday's games should be the West Virgina - East Carolina game. And if you think I picked that game just to post that picture, then you are right.

Sunday's games offer a little better matchups. I, and about 20 other people in the country, am interested in the Cincinnati-Baltimore game just to see Chad Ocho Cinco play. Other then that, I wouldn't mind seeing Brett Favre play terribly to knock him off his high horse and the Patriots to get caught violating the integrity of the game. Probably not going to happen but a man can dream can't he. Have a good weekend everyone.

Bats in playoffs, Football is back

The Reds are still playing but the real story is in Louisville where the Bats are looking to actually win something of substance for the organization. They are in the playoffs so there haven't been any September callups. Not that it would do any good to expose those guys to the terrible team and awful manager currently residing in Cincinnati. Football is the real story.

The NFL kicks off tomorrow, one week after its better counterpart began. Here's looking forward to another boring season of the same styles, players, and plays being done over and over until two teams play in the Super Bowl. No ingenuity, no rivalries, and boring football make the NFL inferior to college. And yes, the players may have more skills, but college ain't too shabby. I would rather watch A+ drama and B+ skill then D+ drama and A+ skill. Anyway, here are some predictions

AFC Championship: Colts over Chargers. I refuse to pick Bellicheat. Hopefully he will be out of the league by then because he violated the integrity of the game and called into question 8 years of football. This won't happen because Shady Brady and the boys are a cash cow for the NFL. I think the Colts will be healthy this year and ready to reclaim their spot at the top of the AFC. San Diego plays in an awful division and has the best player in football. They should always be at the top.

NFC Championship: Cowboys over Saints. Like the Saints to rebound and the Cowboys are loaded at almost every position.

Super Bowl: Colts over Cowboys. Peyton won't lose a Super Bowl. He will have two weeks to watch film while Romo will have two weeks to party. Plus the game is in Tampa. It will be like Super Bowl XLI all over again.

Offensive MVP: Tomlinson. He is just too good. You think Atlanta would like to have him instead of the Dog Killer right now.

Defensive MVP: Patrick Willis. He is way too good to be on that awful team.

AFC Rookie of the year: Darren McFadden. Will have great numbers in a limited role.

NFC Rookie of the year: Matt Ryan. Winning 5 games on that team should get him MVP votes.

Biggest bust: Andre Woodsen. We went from potential first round pick to jobless in 8 months because he has the slowest release ever recorded. Only Michael Vick fell faster in one summer.

Last day of boredom

This is it. The final night before 4 glorious months of football. With that said, let me make some predictions that will invariably fail.

BCS Champion: Some overrated SEC team with two losses. Happens every year because the media loves the SEC almost as much as the SEC loves itself. If they only knew that most people laugh at them for their antics and don't feel Florida or LSU were the best team the past two years. Louisville would have played a good game against Florida(hell they almost lost to south carolina and arkansas) and USC would have whipped LSU even with their home-field advantage.

Runner-Up: Oklahoma. They will run through their 10 easy games and 2 hard ones(Texas and Mizzu) but choke again in a BCS game. Or as I like to say, they will pull an A-Rod and choke under pressure(this is a total joke. A-Rod is the best player in the league and gets the worst rap. Their is no such thing as clutch.)

Heisman: Knowshon Moreno. He is amazing and in the SEC. The media will drool.

Big East champ: Louisville. Hey, why not. If Louisville doesn't win the Big East title, I blame Dusty Baker.

Speaking of Dusty, he continues to play Patterson and Bako while foregoing the youth movement of Sully Hanigan and any other outfielder. Here is a quote from Hal McCoy's blog, "asked if Bako’s work with Volquez and Cueto made him a candidate to return next year, Baker said, 'Yeah, I think so."' That is so great to hear. I can't wait to hear his excuse for why Patterson needs another shot in CF.

He's Back

Hello all. I decided that since Boose was able to take a month off, I'd treat myself to a similar hiatus from the blog. Since I left, the Reds have decided to give up on this year and the next few by selling off two of their best bats for some young prospects who they can nurture to the point a contending team will be willing to trade more prospects for them. I look forward to writing about that in a few years (assuming at least one of them avoids flaming out and is with the club in 3 years). The good news is that this frees up money to resign Corey Patterson. Unlike Boose I think Patterson just needs to play everyday so we can see those 5 tools produce. None of this production will show up on the stat sheet, but can you put a price on his grit, hustle and determination? I would say no.

Also we've seen Boose go on countless rants against the BoSox, which seems odd given we have 10 readers and one of them is a Red Sox fan. While I equally hate the fake fans from Boston who pretend to have lived through the tough years, I also envy them. I wish I could just pick a winning team and then feel the joy of a championship. But such is not our lot in life as loyal Reds, Bengals and UofL fans. We should be one with our Boston brethren who had to endure years of heartbreaking losses by the Sox, terrible play by the Pats and the depressing Ricky P years of the Celtics. Problem is those fans have been drown out by the new breed of Boston fan, who once knew someone that knew a kid that went to BC so they've always followed Boston sports. We hate those people. Also the true Boston fan who lived through the down years, can you remember what it is like to follow a franchise that clearly does care about winning? Do not look down from your new found success and ridicule us, but rather throw some support behind the hopeless Cincy fan base. We are good people, who just want to feel that management does care and is willing to field a competitive team. We've been close to the mountaintop (A cheap shot on Carson Palmer's knee away from beating the eventual super bowl champs, 1 win against a hapless Brewers team from heading to the playoffs and a false start against Rutgers away from playing for the national championship). All those memories seem so distant as the future of our 3 teams looks extremely bleak.

With the reds 2008 and 2009 seasons are pretty much over, we shall turn our focus to the Bengals and Cards. I'm pulling for the Cards to either make a miracle run through the Big East and win 10 games or pull a Kragthorpe and lose 10 games leading to his immediate dismissal and being replaced by Ron English. On the Bengals front, we need to steal a few games early in the season while the team is banged up. If we can stay .500 while Chad, Rudi and TJ get healthy we can make a run at it.

Well this has been another long Tom post, which I hear many of you do not enjoy reading. If it makes it easier, break it up throughout the week. Maybe 1 paragraph a day (Granted if you have made it to this point my advice is no longer helpful, so yes i see the flaw here).

Reds beat the Cubs; still can't hit

Arroyo pitched a gem last night and the Reds held on for a 2-1 win. Great effort from Bronson but pitching hasn't really been the problem recently. The problem for most of the second half and all of the 9 games since Adam Dunn was traded is offense. Since Adam Dunn was traded the Reds are averaging 3.1 runs per game. The Diamondbacks are averaging 6.6. But hey, the Reds haven't clogged the bases as much. Their OPS was .727 before the trade and .659 since the trade. So the Reds plan was, we are having trouble scoring runs, let get rid of the player who gets on base the most and drives in the most runs. Brilliant.

Now our two best OPS+ numbers belong to Encarncion, a 25-year old 3rd basemen who has yet to develop a solid hitting approach and plays sub-par defense, and Joey Votto, a 24-year old rookie who is still learning to be a big-league hitter and plays sub-par defense. Brandon Phillips has a great slugging percentage but refuses to take a walk, Keppinger and Bruce have come back to earth, Dickerson and Rosales have only been Reds for 20 minutes and don't get me started on Bako and Patterson. I don't know where the runs are coming from. Must be all that speed running our popflys. But I do feel better after receiving a letter from the owner and GM.

There is a new poll which should be interesting. Which fans are the most annoying: Cubs fans, Cardinal fans, or Red Sox fans? Let me give you a quick breakdown.

Cubs fans-these are people from all over the country who want to be cool. Most are "consultants" who are overeducated and underemployed. They claim to have always been a fan of the Cubs but few can name a manager before Dusty Baker and Sweet Lou came to town. They are loud, obnoxious, and generally piss everyone off who is not a Cubs fan. They are currently driving the second largest bandwagon in baseball and, if they fail to make the playoffs for a few years, will lose 50% of the fans. They wish they were as good as Boston or as historic as New York and have a real inferiority complex about being the "Second City." Most hated in St. Louis, Milwaukee, and any other Midwestern city

Cardinal fans-these fans are a fairly loyal bunch, having strong ties to Missouri, western KY, and southern IL. The real problem with them is they think they are the most knowledgeable fans in baseball even though there is no way to prove it. This leads to many of their fans saying asinine things that are totally wrong in order to show their baseball knowledge. When confronted with facts to back up the opposite point, they ignore it and scream louder. While Cubs fans wish they were on the east coast, Cardinal fans wish St. Louis was as good as Chicago. They have a Midwestern envy. Most hated in Chicago, KC, Cincinnati.

Red Sox fans-they are so touchy nowadays. As recently as 2003, they were the tortured losers with a devoted following whom everybody felt bad for and rooted for. Now they are the largest bandwagon of obnoxious and fair weather fans. They spend insane amounts of money to buy championship caliber teams and still wish they were the Yankees and had 26 titles. Always the 2nd most important team in baseball and they can't stand it. They get angry when someone questions their loyalty or passion(as evidenced by the comments from earlier posts) and fail to see the humor when called out about it. They have won 2 world series in the last 4 years and will be more then happy to tell anyone and everyone about it. Most hated everywhere but New England.

Reds lose again; Dusty continues to amaze

Dusty decided that last night was a great time to start Corey Patterson in Chicago. Earlier this year I posted a video of what happens in the bleachers when Corey starts. Dusty ignores this and sends him out there to misplay balls and not get hits. Well done.

The Reds are reduced to playing spoiler. Not going to happen. The Reds can't score more then 3 runs a game which is something we all knew was coming. Even with a great outing like last night from Cueto, there is no offense to pick him up. Sure would hate to have a player with a very high OBP and VORP whose name rhymes with Fadam Gunn. But I guess we had to get rid of him because of his defense, since a little below average defense offsets his powerful offensive arsenal. Saving 10 runs a season is more important then driving in 100 runs and hitting 40 HR's. Now the owner and GM write a letter to the fans telling them to be patient. This is the same man who said 3 months ago that we weren't going to lose anymore. But they did and now they are wandering aimlessly. No plan. No blueprint. Just losing. 8 years in a row.

Now that the season is over let's get to some Olympics talk. These Phelps and Bolt guys are pretty good. I don't what I am to do these next few days without them. I guess I could focus on the Walsh-May team but they only have one more game. Gymnastics is over and the Men's Basketball is a cakewalk. Any suggestion? There are still some gay divers and manly women throwing shotputs but I will have to pass.

Reds pitching; Thank God for Volquez

Dusty has a reputation for being tough on pitchers. Some of it is true; some of it is not true. Did he overuse Prior and Wood early in their careers? Yes. Have either of them been healthy the last 3 years without Dusty? No. Wood has at least pitched some the past two years but Prior has never been healthy. SI did an article about Tim Lincecum discussing mechanics of pitchers and noted that Prior had a terrible delivery that was an injury waiting to happen. Wood has rebounded and, if he can stop getting blisters, can remain relatively healthy. Neither is throwing 120+ pitches on a regular basis like they did in 2003.

Dusty has seemingly learned from that. Volquez has not exceeded 120 pitches in any outing this season (but he did throw 39 on one days rest) and Cueto has not either while throwing 100+ in only 11 of his 25 starts. Not bad on the young arms. Volquez has struggled since the 39 pitches on 1 day rest debacle. Some of that can be contributed to regressing to the mean but he has posted a 3.65 ERA and 1.3+ WHIP. He was at 1.34/1.2 before that but those number could not be sustained. Overall, Volquez still has an ERA+ of 165 and should pitch no more then 200 innings. Much better then most anticipated but a few more days rest before the end of the year to keep his innings at 180 would be nice. The season is over and we are going to need him for many years if the Reds will ever compete for a playoff spot. This season the Reds are 17-9 when he starts and 38-61 when he does not. Ouch.

Cueto has been up and down which is what can be expected from a rookie pitcher. He has an ERA+ of 92 and a WHIP under 1.4, not bad for a 22 years old rookie who had only pitched 4 games above AA ball before this season. His ERA has dropped the past 2 months and he should continue to improve his final 6 starts while throwing around 190 innings. Not bad for a rookie. The Reds are 10-15 when he starts but he has gotten 3 or fewer runs from his offense in 14 of those 25 starts. A little more luck and he can finish with a .500 record.

Harang has been a disaster this year. He began the year pitching well and getting no run support. After the 4 innings on two days rest in San Diego back in May, he has been terrible. Check out the difference:

Pre-Dusty Destruction: 3.50 ERA and 1.2 WHIP.
Post-Dusty Destruction: 9.06 ERA and 1.9 WHIP.

This was the ace of the Reds the previous 2 years and now he is getting beaten like a red-headed step child. I put the blame on Dusty because he had been pretty good before the debacle in San Diego. Now he reminds me of "Batting Practice" Danny Graves. The Reds are 8-14 when he starts. Just terrible from the ace of your staff.

The rest of the staff has been alright. Arroyo pitches different every time out but stays healthy and the Reds are 13-13 when he pitches. Fogg started terrible and has come back to be what a 5th starter usually is, 5 innings, 3 runs. Bailey didn't have a good run but is only 22 and should be given more time. Volquez was 1-10 when he was 22 so I will give Homer a few more years. Thompson showed signs of greatness but needs more development. Belisle was not good and is now injured.

The bullpen has actually been mediocre, which is a huge improvement over a year ago. Burton has pitched well when healthy as has Bill Bray and David "Stormy" Weathers. Cordero has been great at times and awful at times. Maybe a 4 year deal wasn't the best idea but he has not been that big of a disappointment. ERA+ of 115 and a few blown saves.

Overall, the pitching staff needs to be tweaked a little, making Volquez and Cueto the 1-2 punch and Arroyo and Harang 3-4 with Homer, Thompson, or anyone else getting the 5 slot. I sure hope Dusty does the smart thing and eases up on Volquez and Cueto because we will need them healthy for the next few years because this season is done. Chicago this week. Let's spoil the fun up on the North Side. Their fans need to come back to earth.

Live Blog of Poo-holes at-bats

I have always said that Ty Cobb Pujols should be walked every time he bats. Whether bases loaded no outs or bases empty two outs, walk him and let the rest of the team beat you. His first AB will be just after 7. He must be walked. NO MATTER WHAT. Dusty will pitch to him and we will lose. I've seen it a bunch of times.

6:20-Corey Patterson starting again. Why not? He is all the way up to a .227 OBP and 47 OPS+. Great numbers. I am already excited.

7:15-Top1, Pujols first AB. 1 out man on 2nd. 1st base is open. WALK HIM. Pops to 1st on first pitch. Very close to a homer. Got out of that one but probably won't be that lucky again.

7:53-Top 3, no on, no outs. WALK HIM. I know it the stats may not say to walk him but I say let him go. He mashes one down the line, upper deck, but 25 feet foul. Another bit of luck. And a double. Didn't see that coming. He is squaring very well on the ball. Don't give him anything to hit. His first at bat, pitching to him saved a run. This time, he is in scoring position for 3 straight batters. After an out a single puts him on 3rd with one out instead of second with one out. A walk then he scores on a badly turned DP. Man the Reds suck.

8:22-Top 5, no on, no outs. Another time to WALK HIM. He throws a great pitch and jams Pujols. Pop out. Props to Arroyo. Finally fooling Pujols after getting lucky the last two times he batted.

8:53-Top 7, no on, one out. WALK HIM. His OPS+ when facing a pitcher 3+ times is 171. Double. Hit it right on the button. Didn't see that coming.

9:38-Top 9, no on, two outs. WALK HIM. He is 2-4 with 2 doubles. He has crushed one to the upper deck just foul and barely missed another that ended up being a VERY high pop out. His OPS+this season vs. LH is 208. Ripped to LF for a single. 3-5, 2 doubles, 3 hard hit balls, one near miss, and one tape measure foul ball. Ankiel hit one good ball and nothing else. Not that it would have mattered because the Reds were gonna lose either way. A .222 team average for August isn't winning many games.

I love America; and I hate commies

So glad to see the American women beat the commie cheaters last night in gymnastics. I mean, alleged cheaters. Hey, if the state run age authority, state run athletics, and state run media say she is 16, then she must be. Except that the state media said she was 13 last year and 14 early this year. But those were just typos. Glad the state run media corrected itself only after it was caught by a free-thinking society. I mean if you can't trust the commies then who can you trust right.

Phelps goes for 7 tonight at 10:10. He should dominate. He has 2 swims left until he gets an entire week at the drunken orgy known as the Olympic Village. In Athens 4 years ago they handed out 75,000 condoms. That wasn't enough. In Beijing they are giving out 100,000. Now throw in the greatest Olympic champion ever with 8 gold medal around his neck. He will be more worn out after next week then he will be after this week.

Make sure you set the alarms for tomorrow morning as well. The men's 100m is tomorrow morning at 10:30. Should be very exciting to see Tyson Homosexual go up against the two Jamaicans. I am just going to assume everyone is free of drugs even though there is no possible way it is true. That is like going to a Red Sox game and thinking that fans actual care about the game. Most would rather wear their pink hats and talk on their cell phones just like track and field will always have athletes trying to beat the system. O well, still better then watching the Reds trot out Corey Patterson and The Human Out Paul Bako play everyday.

I received a comment regarding Dunn's defense and was a bit surprised at what I found. Anyone who has watched the Reds remembers awful plays he has made in the field like dropping flyballs, misplaying line drives, and making terrible throws. They do not remember his running catches and assists to nail a runner going to second. Baseball Prospectus has some complicated fielding statistics but the one constant is that this is his best defensive season and he has cut down on his runs allowed above average. Last year his rate2 was an 86 meaning he gave up 14 more runs per 100 games then an average LF. 100 is average and any number above or below that is how many more runs you save or give up per 100 games. This number is adjusted for ballpark, position, and normalized over time. This means a bad SS will give up more runs then a bad LF because a SS gets many more plays and can create or save many more runs. For example, Ozzie Smith averaged about a 115 meaning he saved 15 runs per 100 games above average. Derek Jeter is an 89 this year meaning he gives up 11 more runs per 100 games then an average SS. That is not good but at least he won the Gold Glove last year with a 98 or 2 runs per 100 games below an AVERAGE SS. That makes sense.

Now where was I. O yeah, Adam Dunn's defense. To put Dunn's 07 season in perspective, Barry Bonds had an 87, or was one better then Dunn's 86 last year. Ouch. This year, however, he is at a 95, very close to an average LF. He has improved greatly over the last 5 years to the point that his defense is no longer a liability and getting very close to average. O yeah, he also hits 40 HR's a year and gets on base 38% of the time, better then anyone else on the Reds. He can play a little below average in LF if he can be the most productive hitter in the lineup. I will take that trade-off anyday.

Dear ESPN, stop copying me

So I cruise over to espn.com and stumble upon a Keith Law article about the Adam Dunn trade. He quotes his great OPS and how his strengths are much greater then his deficiencies, exactly what I wrote a month ago when arguing to keep Dunn. I brushed that off because anyone with a functioning brain, which excludes Reds management, knows Dunn is very valuable. Then I read Jayson Stark's Rumblings and Grumblings, he also says that Dunn is a great asset. He further takes a shot at Dusty, wondering how Patterson has gotten 242 at bats, but anyone who knows baseball wouldn't give him that amount of at bats. Then he points to Aaron Harang pitching on two days rest as a terrible decision and a possible cause for his struggles. Where have I heard that before? These things are clear though, and any good baseball writer would point these out. But when I read Rob Neyer's blog entry today I realized that ESPN really is reading me. Last night I pointed out that Reds-Pirates was the worst game on TV and used other examples as well as the fact that they are a combined 35 games under .500. This morning, Rob Neyer throws out some numbers to see what the best and worst games were last night and concludes, as I did, that Reds-Pirates was the worst. THE VERY NEXT MORNING he takes the same idea I had, adds a few numbers, and writes it as his own. More then a coincidence and bordering on plagiarism. Now I know that I have finally made it in the blogosphere. If I can get linked directly to another blog then I may have to retire from my job at Wendy's and finally move out of my mother's basement. ESPN loves me. If I could only get Deadspin to take notice, then it would be over.

The Reds end the series in Pittsburgh tonight before hosting the DUI LaRussa and the rest of the Redbutts, including the great Felipe Lopez, centerpiece of the big trade 2 years ago who was cut by Washington last week. When the worst team in baseball cuts you, that means you don't belong on a major league roster, except of course St. Louis. They love taking the Reds leftovers. He, Jason LaRue, Ron Villone, Kyle Loshe, and Ryan Franklin all played for the Reds this decade. All of them have since been cast off by another team before winding up on the Cards. Hopefully we can win a few to knock them out of the playoff race. As I stated last time, walk Albert "Ty Cobb" Pujols every time he bats and hope the HGH twins are on a down cycle.

Patterson starts again; sure, why not

Dusty continues with his torture tactics. Dunn is gone, and Dickerson was called up from Louisville. He is a rookie and should play every day. Except that Dusty has decided he needs protection. "I'm trying to protect him some and keep his confidence," Dusty Baker said. I forgot, Dickerson is a 14 year old who loses self esteem when he gets an out not a career baseball player who has made thousands of outs. He needs to be babied because disappointment is not a part of big league baseball. Everyone succeeds and no confidence is ever shaken. It is best to not let young players know that they may fail sometimes and to stay confident no matter what. Thanks Dusty.


Tonight the Reds continue their series with the lowely Pirates. The only question is which game is more irrelevant: Reds-Pirates, Astros-Giants, or Indians-Orioles. I'll take Reds Pirates because they are a combined 25 games below .500 and are fighting for last place. Forgive me if I continue watching the Olympics. They are the best thing on television and, if you haven't already, you must watch. My favorite part is that not only can I root for any American even if I have never heard of them or even like them, but there is a specified person to cheer against every time. Sometimes, if you are lucky, the opponents are French or communist, in which case you cheer against them twice as hard because no one likes them.

Dunn traded: I don't understand why

Adam Dunn is gone. Traded to Arizona. Amazing. His BA has dropped this year but he has put up a .233/.373/.528 and an OPS+ of 131, VORP of 24.9, both are the highest on the team. He is the most valuable bat in the lineup, can change the game with one swing, in the prime of his career, plays average defense, is the longest tenured Red, and the face of the franchise. Now he is gone and the young guys like Bruce and Dickerson get to learn how to play the outfield from the only other healthy outfielder, Corey the Great. Freel becomes the longest tenured Red and other than Bruce and Votto, there is no position player who will bring in fans.

If Dunn left after the year the Reds would get 2 picks in the top 100. If they were to trade him they would have to get a solid, young, major league ready prospect with very few questions of whether or not he will play in the majors. What did they get? They got a 23 year old, 3rd round draft pick, right-hander in high-A ball who has already had Tommy John surgery and two players to be named later, which of course means two players destined to stay in the minors. Horrible. Now there is no chance of him coming back next year and leaves the Reds with all their hopes for offense on the late developing Phillips and Encarnacion with Votto and Bruce still learning to play while trying to carry the middle of the order. I guess Corey really threatened Dusty with the incriminating pictures and now that Dunn is gone, he is guaranteed more playing time.

I am left speechless. I have pleaded with the Reds to lock Dunn down long term. They traded him for a bag of peanuts, some splintered maple bats, and a cactus from Arizona. There is no face of the franchise. Jay Bruce is now forced to carry the team on his 21 year old shoulders. Harang is turning into a mediocre pitcher and, not surprisingly, the young pitchers seem to be wearing down the more Dusty sends them out there for 110+ pitches. The season is over and, as for next season, I am almost ready to throw in the towel. Thank god football is almost back. The ineptitude of the Reds makes me long for Mike Brown and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Another losing season, now come the stupid moves

Quick game: Who do you release?

Both these players play the same position and are equal in defense.

Player A: 36 years old, .216/.289/.340 in 78 games and an OPS+ of 63
Player B: 31 years old, .231/.381/.366 in 52 games with an OPS+ of 96

Player A right. Well, if you were Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty you would pick Player B. Player B is David Ross who had some injuries early in the year and was starting to round into form. Player B is Dusty favorite, "The Human Out" Paul Bako. He had a great April and since then has OPSed 55, 38, 28, 29 the past four months. I had to check those stats twice. Are you serious? He isn't even a good rookie ball catcher. Ross has gone 125, 69, 154, and 43 and only had 15 AB's in August so his 43 needs more work. It is still considerably higher than Bako.

There is no reason, I mean NO REASON, to let Ross go and keep Bako. Bako is done as a big league player. Ross is still useful as a backup or an injury replacement. He has played well in Cincinnati and has a good relationship with the pitchers. Bako must have pulled a Corey Patterson and gathered some leverage on Dusty. My guess is Bako kidnapped Dusty's chihuahua Princess. Now Bako needs to let the little rat go so he can be released and the Reds can make the sensible move of allowing Ross to compete for a starting job now that he is healthy.

Corey Patterson continues to be a Red, defying any logic. He continues to OPS+ 46, receive a pay check, and keep the Reds from playing any young players. Granted the Reds may not have any prospects left in AAA, but any player, even one from Rookie ball would be better than Corey. He will be out of baseball after this year so there is no reason to have him on the team. They need to move on.

Tomorrow I will address the bonehead moves in the pitching staff. Who knows, they may release Bill Bray and recall Todd "Decaf" Coffey, tell Dunn they won't resign him then give an extension to Patterson. Why not reward the weak and punish the strong. It would only make sense after what happened today.

I'm back; what happened to this team

Well, the Bar exam is over and I am back on the blog. The Reds have continued the trend of beating opponents above .500 while losing to teams under .500. As of today, the Reds are 22-21 against teams >.500 and 29-37 against teams <.500. This means they are not taking bad teams seriously. Whose job is it to make sure they play heard every day regardless of the opponent? O yeah, Dusty Baker. The Reds need to win all three in Washington in order to stay in any kind of a playoff race. They are nine back of the wild card and will need a ton of help but losing three striaght series' to bad teams will end it.

Now onto the Griffey trade. I like it. Griffey wasn't exactly tearing it up. He had an OPS+ of 103, or just above average. Not very good for a #3 hitter. Now either Dunn, Bruce or Phillips can take that spot and we can have someone who can slug when Hairston and Keppinger get on base. Bruce doesn't have the best statistics since his amazing first week but putting him at the top of the order will get him more at bats and help him develop more quickly. The other great thing about this trade is that it will give Dunn, Bruce and Hairston a two month audition for what the outfield should be next year. Either way, Dunn is now the longest tenured Red and it is his team. If the team continues to play pretty well and can get above .500 by the end of the year, the Reds will have to keep him and as our loyal readers know, keeping Adam Dunn is essential to the Reds having any kind of success in the future.

As for the blog, it will take a bit of a break. Your great contributors are going on vacation until August 9th. I know this is devastating for you but the comments are still available and you guys can argue amongst yourselves until our return. Until then, lets hope the Reds can pile up some wins and the Brewers and Cards come back to .500. Either that or Dusty gets fired but that would render this site moot so no one wants that just yet. Oh who am I kidding, of course I would like that.

Trade Talk and Patterson Live Blog

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Trade Deadline Idiocy: Or how number 22 in the 2006 MVP Voting Becomes Untouchable

Mixing up here at FDB with a guest post. Reds were off yesterday and someone wanted to step in. Kinda like on Boose's favorite show Regis and Kelly, when they have those special guests while Reeg is on vaca. He didn't give me a pseudonym so we will just call him the mystery guest:

Please excuse this diversion from sending hugs out Dusty Baker, if you want hard hitting analysis of the Reds, I suggest you check out Grady’s “ESPN Featured Comment of the Day” from the 22nd. As we sit a week away from the non-waiver Trade Deadline, it’s nice to take a step back and look at all the insane trade proposals that the professional journalists report on and how we buy into the same hype of our own players. It’s only natural we at times become a bit clouded in our views of our own players, I mean just a few weeks ago Tom was hear discussing the merits of trading Jr. Griffey, because as we all know teams around the league are clamoring for a 38 year old aging slugger who before last season had not played in more than 130 games since 2000 and have an appropriately average 100 OPS+ and could potentially lose out on a Gold Glove to Manny Ramirez (assuming they played the same position and were both in the same league). Trust me Tom, I’m sure the Rays would be more than happy to give you David Price and his minor league contract for the right to Griffey’s 16.5 million dollar option next season. Of course we all know Tom’s true preference is to see Griffey hit 700 home runs at as a Red, which at his blistering pace of a home run per 26 at bats, should only take another 4.5 years (well worth the 16 million dollars). Naturally, this goes both ways and for as much unconditional love one city can have for a player there can just as easily be irrational hatred, as some around Cincinnati seem intend on shipping Adam Dunn out of town, though not in these parts of the intertubes. Before you think I just stopped by to just bash the “surging” Reds, rest assured I can well criticize the lunacy of my own teams fan base (if there is anyone still reading this will surely end that), in full disclosure I am a World Champion Boston Red Sox fan, the team that plays just down the road from the World Champion Boston Celtics. Just this offseason the knights of the typewriters spoke out and the screams could be heard in all corners of the commonwealth when it was suggested that we ship out the newly anointed heartthrob Jacoby Ellsbury – the 2008 lead off man with a Juan Pierre-esque .327 OBP, it would have been just stupid to trade him for one of the best pitchers of the last 5 years (but then trades have never been Theo’s strong suit), and who could forget how beloved 2008 All-Star MVP JD Drew was in Boston last year.

Before I lose anyone else, let me get to the crux of what I wanted to say, there is no place better for insane trade rumors than the city of New York, and the official mouthpieces of the city of New York, the New York tabloids. For example, today, Mr. George A. King III Link (hopefully you can work out the HTML on that Tom) floats the rumor that the Dodgers are interested in Robinson Cano for the package of Matt Kemp and Derek Lowe. Normally we would all laugh and say no way to the Dodgers give up one of their outfield anchors for the next decade for a career .338 OBP second basement, unfortunately, Ned Colletti is not a good GM, thank god the passionate Dodgers’ fan base drove DePodesta out of town (no need to go down that road). Anyway let’s start with the money, Kemp is not even arbitration eligible at this point, he’s got 1 year MLB service so you’ve got him for a couple cost controlled seasons after this, DLowe is a free agent after the season and you only owe him about 5 million for the rest of the season. Cano is owed 25 million through 2011,, and then there are club options at 14 and 15 or 2 million dollar buyouts, so minimum you are trading away Kemp cost controlled through 2012 for 30 million on a second baseman over the same period of time.

That should be enough of an argument against this trade, but from a baseball standpoint it makes no sense either, Lowe is not that good right now but gives you innings in a division with 3 pitchers ballparks. Kemp is only 23 years old and before he becomes a free agent he has the potential to become the centerpiece of a young outfield and strong offensive lineup with Russell Martin and James Loney. Instead you are going to give the Yankees their RF for the next decade at no cost financially to them, for an overpriced second basemen who you don’t need this year since you have Jeff Kent (who sucks but is off the books at the end of the year) – Cano started slow granted, but he’s at best a .340 OBP guy who will give you 20 HRs and 90 RBIs, Kemp is a 23 year old who can be a power guy and give you 120 RBIs and 35 HR’s a year and even though I could care less about SB, he’s the type of guy who can give you 30 SB’s a season – on the open market a RF of his caliber is good for 12-14 million for 4 years – and you have him for nothing.

So the point of all this, I guess it’s the New York Media and Yankees fans have taken a guy who one season “almost” won the batting title and every other season has floated around .300, a slow starter every season, who by virtue of playing on a star studded team in the biggest media market in the country has become a star himself and given a ridiculous contract, when if he were playing in Cincinnati he’d be just another player. I know the argument will be he’s better than the numbers and his defense is great, unfortunately 2nd base defense does not impress me enough to justify the rest of the hype. I don’t mean to pick on Cano because he is not a bad player, instead I just am decrying the insanity of the trade deadline where we take a player like Cano and have the Yankees fan side saying Lowe and Kemp are not enough to get him. I don’t know maybe it’s short sighted or the problems of having a huge passionate fan base that cares about players. Bottom line I would take Kinsler, Kendrick, Utley, Pedroia, Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton, Brian Roberts, and Dan Uggla before Cano, yet one fan base feels he’s untouchable.

Hopefully I didn’t lose you, but I really wanted to spark the discussion about how we overrate our prospects and “stars” to the detriment of what is probably best for the team. So Tom, if any team is willing to give up anything of value for Griffey forget about sentimentality and the memories and trade him, because just as Elton Brand, Josh Childress, and Brett Favre will tell you at the end of the day it’s just a business. It’s inevitably we are going to become attached to players, however, at the end of the day winning a championship with a team of Eddie House, James Posey, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen means just as much as winning one with Tedy Bruschi and Tom Brady (it’s like it’s something in the Boston water we cannot help but being smug). And with that trade Manny.

Just When I think he Gets It

Dusty decides to not pinch hit for Cueto after he gets to 100 pitches, has looked like crap and the reds need some offense. All that makes sense since we want our young arms throwing 120 pitches. At least he is showing some faith in our beat up bullpen. That's a good long term strategy. Pleanty more to say about this. Reds did win, but see below for pleanty of reasons why Dusty should not be the coach of the Reds (ignoring the fact he replaces Dunn with Corey Patterson in double switch, then changes pitchers the next inning basically saying in a tie game I would rather have Corey "swing at the first pitch and really suck at baseball with worst VORP on the team" Patterson for the long haul then Adam "Best VORP on the team, hits many homers which could be very valuable in extra innings" Dunn. Moving on.

Even worse is after his decision to pinch hit last night and use Josh Fogg (who attempts to bunt 3 times and the third one goes foul for an out, so good decision). Well lets see how Dusty explains the bunt:

"The thing about it is, you've got a chance of getting a bunt down 7 or 8 out of 10 times, you've got a chance at a hit 3 out of 10 times and you've got a chance of hitting into a double play 4 or 5 times out of 10 if it's a sinker, slider type of guy. It's all about the odds and who's pitching against you, it's about the scoreboard, the inning, everything. We've been stressing (bunting) since I've been there. They bunt every day. They bunt one to the left side and one to the right side and if they don't get one down, they do it again and they keep doing it until they get one down."

Ok so first of all by the above logic where you have a 75% chance of getting the runner over and 25% of the time you don't get the runner over and he gets out. Either way you get 1 out. His defense of this is that if you swing away you have a 30% chance of getting a hit (and with many people 40% chance of a hit or walk which counts the same, but that is an argument for another day). That would move the runner over and not cost an out which is good. The problem is that you have a 45% chance of getting a double play and two outs (which is really bad and not even close to being supported by any statistical evidence I can find, here is the only thing I found which states since 1978 11% of no out runner on first plays have led to a double play which is a little below the ol Dusters argument http://www.diamond-mind.com/newsletter/en031022.htm). I'm going to assume that the other 25% would just be 1 out. Remember we are not trying to prove his statistics wrong (which they are), but rather use his statistics to see what the logical conclusion. Frankly at this point we aren't asking you to be right Dusty, just be consistent.

So in Dusty World you have 2 choices, take a bunt, move the runner over and get an out 75% of the time with the next guy having a 30% chance of hitting him home assuming he isn't clutch and hits much better with RISP. This leaves you a 22.5% chance of getting a run with one out.

Your other choice is to let the guy hit away and have a 30% chance of a hit followed by another 30% of a hit which scores a run without any outs (a 10% chance of run without any outs or a 5% chance of a run with 1 out (you have to remember that you will only get 1 out 25% of the time b/c of the 50/50 shot at a double play) which gives you a 15% chance of a run assuming that the only thing you can do is single, which is very stupid. All this is irrelevant because a whopping 45% of the time you ground into a double play which offsets any of the above chances of a run.

By this logic you should ALWAYS bunt with a runner on first. Assuming the above facts are correct (which they aren't) there is no reason to ever swing the bat with a runner on first given your are going to get 2 outs half the time 1 out a quarter of the time and 1 run the other quarter. I do love his attempt at statistics, but the only thing worse than Dusty going with his gut is his attempt to use "statistical" analysis. There no reason this man should be in the big leagues, minor leagues or little leagues.

This also ignores the fact he is taking valuable time away from working on hitting the ball out of the ball park or other places that don't ensure you give up one of your 27 precious outs to work on bunting. That is a story for another time. I can't believe I'm sitting in my Mom's basement, and he is running the oldest professional baseball team of all time.

I Was a Good Kid

I've often wondered what I did as a youngster to deserve the torture my parents' inflicted on me later in life. I always did my homework, rarely talked back and did the dishes every night without compliant. By most accounts I was a pretty good child, who has grown up to a functioning member of society. All these things make me wonder, why as a youngster my parents felt compelled to allow me to become a sports fan. Even worse than that, they failed to encourage me to become a fair weather fan, who supports the best team year in and year out, making claims like "I've always liked the Yankees because they my uncle is from New York" or "I didn't really like the Cowboys but was a Troy Aikman fan so I supported them in the 90s." No I was raised to love the Cincinnati Reds, Cincinnati Bengals and the University of Louisville Cardinals. 3 teams which have inflicted untold amounts of emotional damage on me over the years. Not a single championship from any of these teams in 18 years (sorry I'm not counting the Ladybirds dance championships, if that makes me wrong I don't wanna be right).

After last nights terrible showing by our $5 bajillion closer (why you would pay good money for a closer when unless you have rivera is beyond me, but I clearly am not smart enough to run a professional baseball team as well as the Reds), the season is essentially over. This got me to thinking if kids who grew up without sports ever felt the same type of pain over what they love. Is it possible to feel completely devastated if the lead in Swan Lake tears his knee on a cheap shot by the understudy in the biggest performance since Stanley Robinson was doing lines at the Super Bowl? Do grown men dedicate entire websites and countless hours to trying to get the director of their local actors theater fired b/c he isn't following basic rules of theatre? I would argue that non-sports fans avoid the pain we in Reds nation have felt since the one game playoff in 99. Though looking back that 99 season was quite a ride.

So I guess my point is, my parents really did a number on me. Sadly I still care. Sadly I look forward to football season and read articles about Chad Johnson coming back thinking, "maybe we can sneak up on some teams this year". I hear rumblings that UofL basketball has another amazing team and this is our year. I hear Coach Kragthorpe (view his resume at http://www.firekragthorpenow.com/) has a team which could potentially qualify for the Toronto Bowl played December 5th (you will soon learn there is one coach out there that I hate far far far more than Dusty).

I guess we endure the above pain in hopes of the one moment when things finally break right and all that pain is erased by the joy of winning. I guess we like caring about something so silly as sports. The only problem is doing so leads to so much pain and frustration. Well bring it on Dusty, because I can take it. I've lived through worse and hopefully once you are long gone from the Reds organization and Dunn is being elected into the hall of fame as a Yankee we will have a team that is done rebuilding. A team which will make up for all these years of pain and for once I'll feel better than the kid who walks out of Swan Lake. I guess that is why we beat on, in hopes of higher highs, but knowing we will have lower lows than our non-sports fan counterparts.

We are still only 9 games out of the WC so if we can rip off a winning streak it isn't hopeless (yes there is still more pain to be inflicted upon me this year)

11 Out of First and 9 out of the WC

Without a major run we will be in trouble this year. While I haven't given up hope (well more so than I normally do), we should look at the way this team has played of late and realize we have all the pieces to make a run next year. I keep fighting the same fight with Dunn (who leads the team in VORP, OPS and HRs), who many will argue strikes out too much, which is much worse than hitting into an out because I guess it counts for more by making the pitcher use more than 3 pitches. Also his batting average is low which off sets his OBP b/c singles are better than base clogging. Lastly his homers may be good, but he isn't clutch and his home runs are just selfish attempts to score runs with one swing of the bat. Let me know if I didn't summarize the argument against Dunn properly. For a much better argument for keeping Dunn see our friend C. Trent http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/.

Watching tonight's game, hopefully we can whip the Padres (eventhough Give Up A Lot of Homer Baily is pitching back to his prior form). If we can start winning series and get to .500 hopefully people will realize we are VERY close to turning the corner and stop rebuilding. Why not shoot our wad next year and see what happens.

That brings me to the age old question. Would you rather have a team like the Marlins that win a World Series every few years and then sells the team (assuming this happens to a team where people actually give a whomp about baseball) or the Dodgers who are normally in contention but haven't won since Curt Gibson. Thoughts? Frankly at this point I just want to win so give me the Marlins and a WS.

Dusty May Be Reading Moneyball

There were rumors that he had a copy on his desk early this year. Now he should have read it about 10 years ago, but maybe its a start. Here is a quote from Dusty which shows that while he does not get it, he may be coming around. When asked why Grif is batting in the 3 spot:

"It’s something over time he’s earned. I know people say play him here or put him there, but he’s like Dunn, their averages are low, but their on-base percentage is high. Their on-base percentage is better than some of the guys that are hitting for high averages. I know they get paid to hit, but it also helps to get on base and put the pitcher in the stretch. Most starters don’t like being in the stretch.
"I still wish their averages were higher, you want everything, but you look around baseball and the league, you don’t see a lot of everythings. I’m seeing a lot of low averages and some with high production. A lot of strikeouts."

Now the reason you also want walks aside from "getting the pitcher in the stretch" is also "it puts a runner on base and thus makes it more likely that he will score a run." So we aren't completely there, but he does acknowledge that despite the strikeouts Dunn is very productive. Does this give us hope that we will keep him... Not enough. Will post after the game (unless I get bored).

Watch Greg Norman Try to Give Away the British Open while Others Refuse to Take His Gift

So since the turn our Hero has gone three over (and almost four had he not hit an amazing putt at 14). We have Pink Pants Poulter making a run, which proves my point that you can never go wrong wearing tight pink pants when the pressure is on. There is that tall sweedish turkey in the hunt as well. Everyone knows that tall white people cannot be trusted (seriously think about it, Cherokee Parks, Eric Montross, Bryant Reeves, need I go on). Padrig is actually starting to right his ship, so looks to be a boring finish where the Irishman takes it. Will be back in a few holes. Sorry for the lack of the live blog, but the Big Deal Temporary Living Quarters doesn't have a laptop so I have to run up and down the steps to get my faithful readers my biting wit. I'm willing to make the sacrifice b/c I know you are hanging on my every word. It would be a disservice to you and more importantly a disservice to literature if I didn't post all my rambling thoughts.

So Norman birdies but so does Paddy (as we now call him apparently). Looks like it is going to be difficult to see the "shark" (which is a funny nickname given his inability to strike when there is blood in the water) take this one. I think I'm pulling for him here though. Would be nice to see him come through at his age. Also that stupid Traveler's commercial with the umbrella is about to make me go insane. If I have kids, I'm going to make sure to tell them if an old man with a big red umbrella comes up to you and offers you a ride report him to the police. It is just sound wisdom. Reds start in a few minutes, so needless to say I have a big day ahead of me.

Norman Goes out in 40

So as expected, I wake up to find that Norman has choked through the front nine on his way to a 40. What was unexpected is that everyone else isn't very good and he still holds the lead. This reminds me of all those tournaments where Tiger is around even or 1 under and the field is about 5-6 behind him. I've always said, we would have a very exciting final day if Tiger weren't there. Well now we have it and frankly its a little embarrassing. I'm convinced Tiger may be able to win this tournament in his current state (assuming they let him use a golf cart since that would have no bearing on his ability to play golf according to the Supreme Court).

Reds looked great last night with Fogg only giving up 1 ER. He has been great since coming back and is becoming a decent 5th starter. We are 8 out of the Wild Card and 10.5 behind the Cubs so it is still a long way to making the playoffs. We do have the team in place, but not sure we have enough time. If we could keep this team together next year (which would be possible by just re-signing Adam "THE BEST PLAYER ON YOUR TEAM" Dunn, but we know that won't happen. He will be traded this year for a bunch of prospects as we are told the Reds are rebuilding for the future (which when these prospects become good will be traded for more people to help prepare for the future)). The fact people don't realize Dunn is a very good baseball player did help us last night when the Mets intentionally walked Brandon Phillips to pitch to Dunn. They pitch to Grif (who hit it hard but right at Wright playing the shift), walk Phillips (who while good isn't Grif or Dunn) and then pitch to Dunn who drills the first pitch to left for a single setting off our big inning. We got Volquez up today, lets hope to keep the good times rolling and win our first series out of the break.

I'll be back periodically for my Watch Greg Norman Try to Give Away the British Open while Others Refuse to Take His Gift Blog (I'm still working on the name).

Update During the Game

So the Reds proved (using a small sample set of qualitative evidence, which one would hope can win the day with Dusty) that walks and home runs can generate a significant amount of runs. That 5th inning had 2 hits and 4 runs all which isn't too shabby. Donkey keeps cloggin up the basis. Bronson got lucky to get out of the last inning by getting a DP out of nowhere. Reds have looked terrible on the basepaths with Bruce caught on a pick off and Dunn getting lucky to avoid the catcher throwdown.

Also flipping the channels and saw Mario Lopez hosting a show called "Pet Star" which is a talent contest for people's pets. Is there anything this man would refuse to do?

So Bronson is coming back out for the eighth. He may get out of it ok, but I will say now that I don't really like this idea (unless Dusty told him he can go out there until he lets up a baserunner, which I'm ok with). I could be wrong, it happened once in my life, but didn't think he looked great last inning and with the way Bray has pitched might make sense to give it to the bullpen (something I didn't think I'd ever say about the reds pen)

So I was wrong, lets hope Coco can close this beep out (i say we start playing bray more to see if he can become and everyday closer). Nice inning by Cisco (I'm now going to call him Cisco when he comes through and Coco when he pitches like Ice T's wife). Anyone notice the Reds seeing a lot more pitches the last two days. Do you think Dusty read the blog over the all star break and has decided to take our advice. Lets see if this continues before making any definitive statements, but we've gotten pitch counts high very quickly and forced the Mets top two pitchers out of the game early two days in a row.