Reds links

-Well the first two spring training games are in the books and the Reds have actually scored a few runs. They beat the Rays 7-0 yesterday then fell to the Twins 10-4 today. Things will change soon when some of our best leave for the World Baseball Classic. Here is the list of players.

-Chris Dickerson is filming videos for USA Today. He seems like a smart kid who reads Marketing Strategy books and started his own website for environmentally conscious players. Hey, at least it is better then being a drunk, degenerate athlete.

-SI.com takes a look at the Reds and compares them to the 2008 Rays. There are some similarities. Jonny Gomes comes to mind. Other then that, I don't really see it but CHONE projections has the Reds at 82-80. I would take that for now and that is much smarter then me.

-Maybe Taveras will be better then some think. I think he will be better then most think. He can't be any worse then this man.

Back with more tomorrow and probably another Get the Reds Out.

Get the Reds Out

Some quick thoughts while wondering who this is possible:

-Another HUGE night in hoops. The marquee matchup comes in the Big East where UConn travels up to Canada Lite (Wisconsin) to take on Marquette. Vegas has it as a pick 'em. I have to go with Marquette. They are a veteran team with great guard play and have the home court advantage. Also, it is Ash Wednesday which is kind of a big deal at a Catholic University such as Marquette. How can you go against God?

Elsewhere, Duke goes up to College Park to take on the Turtles, who beat UNC last weekend. Should be a close game until the refs make some questionable calls and Duke with by 5. But hey, they get to reminise on the glory days in a few weeks. Also in the ACC, Clemson faces a desperate Virginia Polytech. I don't really plan to watch seeing as how both would be somewhere between 6 and 9 in the Big East but in the end, Clemson will pull it out. The best team no one is talking about, Mizzu, plays K State at 9. Mizzu should whip them with ease as they get closer to a 2 or 3 seed. The conference nobody cares about (SEC) features two elinimation game meaning the loser will have ahard time making the tournament. One has the UK Mildcats heading to Columbia to face to USC Jr. Gamecocks (The real USC is in L.A.) The other pits Mississippi State against the second best basketball team in Knoxville. Both should be close because all the teams in the conference are middle of the road so I will take the two home teams, the Vols and Gamecocks.

-Eat this Reggie Miller and your 8 points in 10 seconds.

-For my colleauge who hates the idea of a salary cap, someone else thinks it wouldn't be a bad thing.

-Champions League is back in the round of 16. First leg yesterday and today with the second legs coming in a few weeks. The way it works, for those who don't know, is each team gets one home game and at the end, the aggregate score winner moves on. If it is tied after that, whoever scored the most away goals wins. If still tied they go into two 15 minute periods. If still tied then shootouts. Let me give you an example. Team A wins the first leg at home over Team B, 2-1. In the second leg, Team B must win by at least 1 goal. If they win by 2, they will win on aggregate. If they win 1-0 they win beacause while the aggreagate is still 2-2, they scored an away goal and Team A did not. If Team B wins 3-2, they would lose because Team A would have score 2 aways goals to Team B's 1 even though they tied 4-4 on aggregate. If the score is an identical 2-1 game, they would move to extra time and possibly a shootout. Hope that helps. You could also go right here. Probably should have linked that earlier.

-Finally, from the so-your-telling-me-there's-a-chance department, it seems some benchwarmer married this girl:

We can all dream can't we.

Outfield

The final position breakdown is here. In the past, this was one of our strengths. This season, not so much. But hey, we got rid of the lazy, homer hitting, on-base machines in the middle of the lineup and are faster and scrappier. So what if we don't score any runs. At least we are a bunch of Johnny Try-Hards who know how to bunt and run out groundball outs. Now if Dusty can teach them to swing first and never take walks, the transformation will be complete. Let's move on before I start throwing things and break it down by position:

RF
Starter - Jay Bruce (.254/.314/.453. OPS+ of 96)

He turns 22 around opening day and will be at this position for years to come. Hailed as one of the best prospects in the game going into last season, he did not disappoint. His scorching start cooled as teams saw him a second and third time but he adjusted. After tearing up May and June with a .297/.348/.426, his July and August numbers went down to .239/.277/.421. After Griffey left and gave him RF as his permanent spot in September, he hit .256/.351/.573 which is amazing for a 21 year old rookie. I think his struggle in the middle months was inevitable because teams were adjusting to him but the way he came back in September was encouraging. He learned what it was like to be a major leaguer and having to change your approach to be successful. I expect a breakout year for him now that he has an everyday job and everyday position. He should go .275/.335/.470 with 25 HR's and 95 RBI's while joining Votto and Phillips as the young leaders of the team.

CF
Starter - Willy Taveras (.251/.308/.296, OPS+ of 56)
Backup - Jerry Hairston Jr.

Last season was rough for Willy. He regressed in every hitting category from his '07 .320/.367/.382 but managed to steal more bases. He went 68 for 75 on the basepaths for an amazing 91%. Dusty plans on using him as the leadoff hitter, which is based purely on his SBs and discounts the fact that he doesn't get on base. He is moving from Coors to Great American which isn't much of a change and if he can just get on base, things could be good. His defense is average so there is not a loss there and he is still fairly young having just turned 27 on Christmas so improvment is not out of the question. I think he will benefit from the change of scenery and put up numbers closer to '07. If not there is always a replacement waiting.

LF
Starter - ?
Backup - ?

This is the biggest crapshoot on the team. The Reds spent the entire offseason looking for an everyday right-handed power bat to go here. I had an idea. The team looked into Jermaine Dye. In the end, nothing happened. Now the Reds have a bunch of guys, none of which is a everyday power hitting right-hander. Most see the front runner as Chris Dickerson. He did great in his late season call up going .304/.413/.608, OPS+ of 160. Of course that was in only 102 AB's and they were the best 102 AB's he has had at any professional level ever, so I am guessing he is not the second coming of Albert Pujols. He is left handed and his OPS fell by 200 points against left handers so he is not exactly what the Reds had in mind. He is still a 26 year old rookie who can improve and deserves a chance to play everyday sometime just so the Reds can see what they have. I think he will make the team and platoon with Hairston until he gets his feet wet or Hairston gets injured. The other players up for this spot are Jaque Jones, Johnny Gomes, Lance Nix, and Norris Hopper. The first 3 are non-roster invites and there is a reason. Hopper looked to be an up and comer until he missed almost all of last season with an injury. He hit .329/.379/.388 in his only extended major league appearance which was 307 AB's in 2007. Those numbers would be great at the top of the order if he is healthy and Taveras and/or Dickerson struggle or get hurt. I think Dickerson and Hopper make the club along with Hariston because of his versatility. That leaves one extra spot between the non-roster invites. I think it goes to Gomes because he is a right handed power bat. He doesn't hit for average or get on base so he is not an everyday player but he is a strong bat on the bench. I want him to make it for personal reasons. He brings a certain fire to the team. Also, he did something I think we all want to do, beat the crap out of the Red Sox:

The outfield should be Bruce, Taveras, and a platoon of Hairston/Hopper and Dickerson. Bruce is the only bat that would scare most teams but if the other two positions can improve and play at their best, the outfield will at least be adequate. Any struggles or injuries and the outfield will turn into Bruce and 2 automatic outs. The defense should be improved without Griffey and Dunn, but that is pretty much a given.

This concludes out look at the Reds by positions. Games begin tomorrow with the Reds taking on the Devil Rays. The run to the 2009 pennant begins then. For the Devil Rays, of course.

New feature: Getting the Reds Out

Ok. This is a new feature to the blog. Periodically(Daily, Weekly, Monthly, we will see) I will make a post that has nothing to do with the Reds or their terrible manager. It will be called Getting the Reds Out and will be about anything that is on my mind. My legion of fans (two) has been calling for more non-Reds talk because, apparently, not everyone is a Reds and/or baseball fan. I guess not everyone cares about OPS+ and who will be the 5th starter. Anyway, onto the thoughts:

-2 weeks remaning in college basketball and teams are fighting for bids like fat kids fight for twinkees. March madness is close, which mean so it this guy. Pitt, UConn, and UNC are probably the best teams right now with the Oklahoma Griffins right there if healthy. The rest of the top 10 can make a run if hot but have glaring weaknesses. I always love when people argue over bubble teams. These are teams that are clearly not in the top 25 and have a 1% chance of making any impact in the tournament yet will be discussed for hours on end.Think about that next time you see people arguing over who should get in, Kentucky or Arizona (Arizona every time). Anyway, good slate of games tonight with Louisville playing a desperate team fighting for a bid on the road. Where have I see that before? I will take Georgetown to get the win tonight. In the other game, Oklahoma takes on Kansas. Griffin may or may not play. I think he sits because there is no need to risk further damage when he would be better served resting until the real tourny. Kansas should beat the other Sooners.

-Tiger Woods finally returns to golf this week. It is about time. It was strange that they cancelled all the tournaments up until now. Wait, you mean they actually played them. Funny, I didn't hear a word about them. What are they going to do when Tiger wins his 20th major in a few years and retires?

-The Oscars were last night and Slumdog Millionaire cleaned up. Hey, at least it is better then Titanic.

-Conan O'Brien had his finally show on Late Night Saturday. He is taking over the Tonight Show on June 1st out in L.A. Here are the 15 funniest moments. His last show was excellant and I can't wait until his new show starts. As for his replacement, let's just say I have better things to do then watch him.

-Finally, This guy is making $161 million. If there is a weight-salary comparison, I should be worth about $140 million.

Infield

The positional breakdown has now moved into the field. The Reds infield is fairly set with the only variable being injuries and Dusty Baker's stupidity. These two are very similar because they can be unpredictable and cause great anger to Reds fans everywhere. Let's hope the injuries don't creep up because Dusty's ignorance is unavoidable and will probably be enough to drive most fans to drinking. I have already started. Here is how the infield breaks down by position:

C
Starter: Ramon Hernandez (.257/.308/.406, OPS+ of 86)
Backup: Ryan Hanigan (.271/.367/.365, OPS+ of 91 in only 85 AB's)

In the offseason the Reds made one trade. That trade sent oft-injured and useless Ryan Freel to Baltimore for the oft-aloof and useless Ramon Hernandez. Seems like a case of both guys needing a change of scenery. Hernandez was criticized last season for seeming disinterested and not trying his hardest(Adam Dunn behind the plate). This may have had to do with the fact that Baltimore's best prospect was goign to take his spot behind the plate very soon. He still managed to put up pretty good numbers in the toughest division in baseball. Instead of facing 4 of the best rotations in baseball(Tor, NYY, Bos, TB) he gets to feast on some of the worst (Pit, Mil, Hou). I would also hope that a new team with great young Latin talent would get him excited about playing again. Not to mention our manager and his ability to get the best out of players. If he can improve to a .270/.320/.420 he would be the best catcher the Reds have had since Joe Oliver. Ok, that may be a stretch but I just wanted to give a shout out to the fromer World Series Hero. Hanigan played well in his September callup and is a much better defensive catcher then Hernandez. He will need to show he can hit everyday in the majors before he takes over the job. A year of backing up/spot starting would be a great way to break him in.

1B
Starter: Joey Votto (.297/.368/.506, OPS+ 124)

Last season's Rookie of the Year Runner-Up solidified his spot here for years to come. He started in a platoon with Scott Hatteberg (Thanks Dusty) but soon proved he needed to play every day. The key to him is that he was able to hit the same whether it was a RH or LH pitcher. He drew walks and hit to all fields which made him very dangerous. His defense was very up-and-down, mostly down, but he improved as the year went on and will hopefully continue that. He is only 25 and should be a staple of the Reds for a long time. Or at least until he gets too expensive and moves to a team that has money.

2B
Starter: Brandon Phillips (.261/.312/.422, OPS+ of 92)

Brandon's stats declined a little last season from his OPS+ of 105 in 2007. This is partly because he was moved to cleanup hitter and asked to hit homeruns. This didn't work. So what does Dusty do? Put him back at #4 this season. Brilliant. He OBP has never been great but last season he drew more walks in fewer AB's and cut down on his strikeouts. If he can return to '07 form, he could be good again. His defense is his strength. A former SS, his range in unbelieveable and, if not for a ridiculous '07 vote, he would have 2 straight gold gloves. He has been trying to become a leader, even attending the Reds caravan, something usually given to rookies because it takes away from time on the golf course. The question is whether his teammates will follow his lead. The best way to get the respect is to play and play well. Winning would also help.

SS
Starter: Alex Gonzalez (.272/.325/.468, OPS+ of 99 all in 2007)

Gonzalez is back and said to be 100% after missing all of last season after having knee surgery. '07 was a great year for him at the plate but his defense and playing time were down. This could have been because his child was suffering from medical issues and took his focus off the game. This season, everything is good and he should be ready to go from day one. If his defense returns to what it was a few years ago and his batting stays strong he could be one of the better SS's in the national league. Before the injury, he was widely regarded as one of the best defensive SS in the game. His '07 year at the plate was also one of his best. His health and return to form will be a major factor in whether the Reds can improve and possibly contend this season.

3B
Starter: Edwin Encancion (.251/.340/.466, OPS+ of 106)

Edwin regressed last year, both at the plate and in the field. His explanation for his struggles at the plate was kept trying to pull the ball out of the ballpark. This season he is going to try and spray it to all fields which should help his average. He still draws a ton of walks, much to Dusty's chagrin, and has the power to hit 20 HRs. Still young at 26 he should improve at the plate and on the field. His defense was atrocious last season but was pretty good the year before. I'm sure his actual ability is somewhere in the middle. He should continue to hit and put up a solid OBP. Improvement in the fielding and throwing would boost him to the top tier of NL 3rd basemen.

Utility IFs
All positions-Jeff Keppinger (.266/.310/.346, OPS+ of 70)
SS, 2B-Jerry Hairston Jr. (.326/.384/.487, OPS+ of 124)

Keppinger is a serviceable utility man who can hit when healthy. His numbers last season were down but that is partly because he was rushed back from a knee injury and played at less then 100%. At full strength his OPS+ is about 100 but his range at short is very limited. Hairston is in the battle for LF but can also play CF, SS, and 2B which makes him very useful. He can also serve as a leadoff hitter and the Reds were very good when he played last season. Of course, last season was a career year for him which he attributed to being 100% for most of it. Unfortunately that didn't last long because he was back on the DL a few times. The Reds will need him as a backup and spot starter and if he can stay healthy, a big if, he will be a solid RH bat off the bench.

One other player in the running for the utility spot is Wilkin Castilo, a player acquired in the Adam Dunn trade. He is only 24 and can play all IF spots including C. He received 30 AB's last September but will probably start the season back in the minors until his hitting improves or someone gets injured.

The infield is a solid hitting bunch with the corners being the strength and the middle being average to above-average. The defense, other then 2B, is a big question mark. Gonzalez is older and coming off a season ending injury and the corners are young and error-prone. If they improve and Gonzalez is back to his old form, they could be good. If they don't improve and Gonzalez is limited, the Reds will once again be at the bottom of the NL in terms of defense. Let's hope for the former and not the latter.

Bullpen

Last season was the first time in a long time that the bullpen could be considered adequate. All it took was signing an overrated closer to a ridiculous amount of money. But hey, they spent money and it worked. Wish they would do it more.

The relievers put up a 3.81 ERA last season, which is amazing because the year before the bullpen ERA was 5.13. The additions of Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln, and Francisco Cordero were the main reason along with steady improvement from Bill Bray, Jared Burton, and David Weathers. The only one of those players not returning is Jeremy Affeldt. The Reds remedied this by acquiring Arthur Rhodes in free agency. Rhodes pitched very well for both Seattle and Florida last year posting a 2.08 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and striking out better then a batter per inning. He is left handed and will probably be used as a left-hand hitting specialist, nearly the same role Affeldt played last season. In that sense, the bullpen is very similar with Cordero closing, Weather and Burton as 7th and 8th inning guys, Rhodes as lefty specialist and the Bray/Lincoln combo for anything else.

Cordero pitched well last season, converting 34 of 40 saves or 85%. He also struck out 78 batters in 70 innings. He should be improved this season because he recently said in spring training that he pitched last season with a bone spur that was removed in the offseason. Let's hope he can convert 90%. Let's also hope he gets more opportunities.

Burton was hurt for parts of last season so he was not able to duplicate his amazing rookie ERA of 2.51, but look for that form to return. The 27-year-old pitched very well in the middle of the season, posting a 0.95 ERA from late may until he was injured in late July. He finished the season with a 3.22 ERA. He is still improving and should continue to strike out better then a batter per inning as he settles into the 8th inning/future closers role.

Weathers posted his best ERA since 2003 at 3.25 and again was able to throw 70+innings. He is frustrating at times but manages to get the job done more often then not. He was signed to a 2-year deal this offseason but I would expect him to be traded to a contender in need of bullpen depth of the Reds are out of it again.

Bill Bray has battled injuries since arriving in Cincinnati from Washington. He is only 26 and posted a 2.87 ERA in 47 inning last year. If he can keep up that pace and stretch out to 60 or 70 innings, he could be a valuable member of the bullpen and the heir to the David Weathers set-up role.

Mike Lincoln was out of baseball before last season. He returned to pitch 70 innings and post a 4.48 ERA, which was about the league average. Hopefully he will improve in his second season back and the ERA will drop. Either way, he is a nice innnings eater but he is not someone you want on the mound in a pressure situation.

Overall, the bullpen looks sound with a good mix of veterans (Cordero, Weathers, Rhodes) and youngsters(Burton, Bray). The question in spring training is whether or not the flame throwing Josh Roenicke will make the roster as the final bullpen guy. He pitched live batting practice and let it fly at 98 mph. Would be nice to a change of pace from the batting practice speed of Weathers. The final spot may go to the loser of the 5th starter race, especially if Owings loses because he is a pinch hitter and relieft pitcher.

All in all, this is a solid bullpen that should be one of the strengths of the Reds.

We have now done the pitchers which means all that is left are the hitters. I will probably do the infield and outfield posts seperatly but let me warn you, it ain't looking good.

Starting Pitchers

For the first time in over a decade, the Reds left their starting pitching staff in tact. Last season our starters had an ERA of 4.97. Remove the revolving 5th starter(Fogg, Bailey, Belisle, Ramirez, Thompson, and Pettyjohn) and his 7.11 ERA and the other 4 returners (Harang, Cueto, Volquez and Arroyo) had an ERA of 4.37. That is not half bad and would have been in the top half of the NL before factoring in the bandbox called Great American Ballpark. Those 4 should be the cornerstone of one of the best 1-4 staffs in the NL and should give us a quality start two-thirds of the time.

The success of the Reds will come down to who wins the 5th spot and how that pitcher fares. Last season the 5th starter was 4-21. Change that number to 11-14 and the Reds become a .500 team. I expect Harang to bounce back and have a good season, which should offset any bumps in the road for Volquez and Cueto, who should both struggle in their second season pitching to the NL. Arroyo will do his 200 innings and 12 wins like always. As the 5th starter goes, so goes the team. He goes 11-14 while the top 4 stay the same, they are .500. He goes 14-11 with the top 4 staying the same, they are an 84 win team. He goes 15-10 with the top 4 inproving, they could get to 88 wins and have a chance at the division or WC with some help. I know its a long shot but everyone is a contender in February and March. Jeff Passan thinks we have a chance to compete with the Cubs(and like myself is not a Dusty fan). The 5th starter will determine it.

The competition will likely be between these four pitchers:

Micah Owings-Centerpiece of the Adam Dunn trade, he has started 45 major league games and has put up a 14-17 record in 257.1 innings with a 4.97 ERA. Struggled last year and had his pitching year cut short due to an injury but should be fully healed for spting training. He is 26 and has by far the most major league experience of any other contender. The other great thing is he can swing the bat. Last season he served as a pitch hitter for the Reds in September and managed to go 2-4 with 3 RBI's. He has put up solid batting numbers in his 116 AB's with a .319/.355/.552 and OPS+ of 126. That is a small sample sive but automatically makes him the 6th or 7th best hitter on the team. Can still be used as a pitch hitter late. His job to lose and I think he wins it.

Odds to job: 3-2

Homer Bailey-Once a top 10 prospect who some people are calling washed up at 22 years old. Those people are idiots and don't listen to them. He is still very young and, if he gets his head on straight, could break out and have a huge year. He has pitched well in AAA but has not been able to translate that success to Cincinnati. I chalk it up to being young and nervous. If he can make the club out of spring training and spend some time with Harang and Arroyo to learn the ropes, I think he could be very good.

Odds of winning job: 2-1

Daryl Thompson-bursted on the scene last summer with a great debut in Yankee Stadium. His is only 23 years old and only started 10 games above AA, 3 of those with the Reds. He should probably spend most of the year in Louisville and be called up later in the summer if there is an injury or trade. I like his potential but unless he throws lights out he needs some more seasoning. No need to rush his development when we have plenty of other viable, and probably better candidates.

Odds of winning job: 8-1

Ramon Ramirez-26 year old who probably looked the best out of the contenders last season, starting 4 games and pitching 27 innings with a 2.67 ERA. More mature then the other contenders and we know how Dusty loves older players. Can pitch out of the bullpen so if he were to lose the 5th starter spot he could make the team as a long reliever/spot starter. Still needs to Wow people to win the job because he is close to a finished product and would take time away from developing one of the other, younger contenders.

Odds of winning job: 10-1

The way I see it, Owings should get it unless some other pitcher pitches so well they take it away. Last year, Volquez pitched better then expected and Cueto blew everyone away to earn his spot, so it could happen. We will find out over the next 6 weeks.

Baseball is Back, and so am I

Pitchers and catchers report this week. Spring training is upon us. I could not be happier that baseball is finally back.

I know I have been away for a while. It seems the Reds did nothing while I was gone so all 5 of my readers have not missed anything. I did some reflection and soul-searching and decided that I need to get back to the focus of this blog, the firing of Dusty Baker.

Dusty was brought in for many horrible, nonsensical reasons. One of which was his ability to lure free agents that would not otherwise come to Cincinnati. Since he has arrived, the Reds lost their two faces of the franchise, Griffey and Dunn, and have added no one. Where are these free agents he was going to lure? Manny is unsigned. I made my pitch for him. Abreu took 1 year and 5 mil. Even Griffey and Dunn took pay cuts and signed with other teams. HE HAS LURED NO ONE!

Can't wait for another season of bad cliches (injuries have hurt us, we are young, making stupid mistakes and need to focus) followed by no free agents signings and losing a few good players. That seems to be the Reds motto. That and avoid anyone who gets on base.

I will try and post most days and plan on breaking the Reds down by positions over the next week as players arrive at camp. Now a few quick links that you may have missed because, well, the Reds never make any news.

Griffey headed back to Seattle. Good for him. They like him there and he can have a nice little swan song. Imagine if he had started the juice when A-Rod and everyone else did in 2001. He may not have gotten injured or at least returned quicker and the Reds may have another banner or two. I guess cheaters do win.

Adam Dunn signed with Washington, and so did about 50 other Ex-Reds, including blog favorite Corey Patterson. I miss him already. The brilliantly named FireJimBowden.com has the list of Ex-Reds signed by the Nationals and C. Trent has a nice photoshoped picture of the new hats for Washington.


I guess there is one team the Reds should beat, a team full of their castoffs.

Well that is it for today. Expect more posts in the coming weeks breaking down the team as well as any updates if anything every happens, which it probably won't.

End of Bowl Season; Reds signings

Well a new year is upon us. My resolution: to write on the blog more. Why? Because I am fed up with college football and the only good thing to happen in college basketball has been this:



Well the final Bowl game is tonight and as I predicted it is an overrated SEC team against Oklahoma. I picked an overrated SEC team to win and I think that will happen. Florida, who lost at home to a 9 win Ole Miss team, gets to play for the title instead of USC, who lost to a 9 win Oregon State team two days before. Utah goes undefeated, beating that same Oregon State team along with No. 12 TCU and No. 14 BYU before trouncing the almighty Alabama in the Crimson Tide's backyard, yet gets no shot at a title. Why do these teams have no shot? Because they don't play in the almighty SEC. That being said, Oklahoma was the second best Big 12 team and should be able to hang with Florida but, in the end, Florida will pull it out because the home team usually wins a close game and this game is being played 300 miles from Gainsville and 1,500 miles from Norman. Sure is nice that the SEC gets the benefit of the doubt from the pollsters and computers even though they aren't a top 2 team(LSU 2003, Florida 2006, LSU 2007, Florida 2008) and gets to play the title game in their own backyard almost every year(LSU 2003, LSU 2007, Florida 2008). No matter what happens tonight, the real national champion will not be crowned because USC, Utah, and Texas have just as much a right to call themselves champions as tonights winner.

As for the Reds, I missed a few things during the holiday break. The Reds signed Willy Taveras to a 2 year deal worth $2.25 million this year and $4 million next year. He is a speedy CF, still fairly young at 27, and has shown signs of being a good leadoff man. His OPS in 2007 was .367 before falling to .308 last season. If he can go back to his 07 season, he would be a huge upgrade over previous leadoff/CF because his defense is pretty good and his baserunning is excellant. He was 68 for 75 last year which is the most steal in the league as well as one of the highest averages at 91%. Either way, he is better than Corey Patterson who has somehow gotten another chance at playing baseball, this time with the Nationals.

The other move was a resigning of Jerry Hairston on a one year deal. I also like this move because it is only a 1 year deal and he can play a variety of position, when healthy. He can play SS if A-Gon continues his 3 year rehab as well as CF and LF if we don't find another bat.

The righthand hitting LF search continues and things aren't looking too good. Milton Bradley is headed to Chicago, Pat Burrell is in Tampa, and it looks like the Red Sox will take Rocco Baldelli. That leaves only one available player, Manny Ramirez. He is still out there meaning his price has to have come down to around 20 million, something the Reds could probably afford but won't be able too because baseball is not meant for everyone to compete, only for big markets to compete every year with a random team thrown in to spice it up. I have seen all the stats about how many teams have made the playoffs/WS in the past 20 years but I give you this one, only once in the past 15 years has a team in the bottom half of payroll actually won the WS. That team was the Marlins. Goes to show you that those who can spend and do spend, win the WS. Those that don't have the means, have to hope for a miracle run to the playoffs or WS but don't have a realistic shot at actual winning the trophy. So, as pitchers and catchers begin to report in a month, remember that only 15 teams have a chance to hoist the trophy. What a great game.

Bowl Season is Here

Well the two weeks off have been brutal but the magical bowl season is here. Four games tomorrow and one more Sunday. Let's break them down.

EAGLE BANK BOWL, Wake Forest vs. Navy, Sat. 11 am

This game was created so Navy could play in it. It is brand new and Navy was invited 2 months ago. Too bad they won't win. Jim Grobe is a great coach and will make the adjustments he did not make when they were beat 24-17 back on 9/27. The Navy offense will not surprise the defense and Wake will pull it out 20-10.

NEW MEXICO BOWL, Colorado State vs. Fresno State, Sat. 2:30 pm

I am going with Fresno and it has nothing to do with how either team has played this year. It is purely because Fresno was involved in one of my 5 favorite college football games of the past 5 years when they took Bush and Leinert to the end in 2005. That game was back and forth, up and down, and didn't begin until 11 pm meaning i was drinking all night watching a great football game. I've had a soft spot for them ever since so I am taking them here 35-28.

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL, Memphis vs. South Florida, Sat. 4:30 pm

This game is being played in the Trop. Yeah, the Devil Rays field. It is also just across the bridge from USF. Memphis is a bad C-USA team that is just happy to be in a bowl. Hell, Memphis lost at home to Louisville. That should be enough to take the Bulls 31-13. South Florida has a few players that may be drafted and they will need to put on a show here. They will. Always take the more talented team with potential draft picks in these lesser games because they know they need to show they can play in order to be drafted.

LAS VEGAS BOWL, BYU vs. Arizona, Sat. 8 pm

Well, the BYU seniors know the drill by now. They have never been anywhere else. This is BYU's 4th straight Las Vegas Bowl appearance. They have won the last two after being beaten by Cal in 2005. They will win again this year. Arizona hasn't been to a bowl in a decade and they finished 5-4 in the terrible PAC-10. Also, the Arizona players will be living it up in Vegas while the Mormons are preparing and getting extra sleep. Won't even be close.

NEW ORLEANS BOWL, Southern Miss vs. Troy, Sun. 8:15

C-USA-Sun Belt showdown in the Crescent city. Great times. Both teams are pretty bad but Troy won their conference while Southern Miss went 4-4 in the powerful C-USA. I think Troy wins a close one 27-24.

More breakdowns and thoughts next week.

SIGN MANNY!

OK, stop laughing. Seriously, stop it. I am going to make a case for signing him. It isn't that difficult.

First, Manny has played in a small market and loved it. When in Cleveland, he enjoyed being away form the spotlight. The constant attention in Boston was something he never got used to and eventually got to him. In LA, he thrived because of the laid back atmosphere. The Cincinnati media would love him and he would be allowed to do his goofy things without scorn. The team would love it, the fans would love it, and the media would love it. He fills our exact need would be a hero here.

Second, he would be energized playing with all the young Latins on the team. Manny and David Ortiz were best friends in Boston. This came out of both of them being Dominican. The Reds have great young Dominicans in Encarnacion, Volquez and Cueto as well as an old veteran in Cordero. Being around these young guys would get him excited and when Manny is happy, he is one of the best players in the league. Of course, when not happy he is still in the top 10.

Third, we can afford him. According to John Fay's math here, the Reds will probably spend $16 million more this year. Giving Manny $22 million per year for 4 years would be enough to get him here. That is only a $6 million increase over what they planned on spending. That $6 million would easily be made up in season ticket sales and merchandise sales very quickly. This would sure up LF meaning we give Hariston the few million we were going to give him anyway to play center and call it a day.

Fourth, it would show the league the Reds are serious about winning. Free agents would see this as a step to win games now and want to come here. It would change the perception from a continual loser to an up and comer who isn't afraid to take a risk if it helps the team. Much like the Brewers did last year and were rewarded with a playoff trip.

Here would be the lineup with the Manny and Hairston signing:

CF Hairston
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF Ramirez
RF Bruce
3B Encanacion
SS Gonzalez (or Keppinger)
C Hernandez
P (Harang, Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo, and Bailey/Owings/Thompson)

That is a team that can compete from top to bottom. It has a strong lineup with tons of power 2-6. Our pitching consists of 2 very good and 2 above average starters with a young pitcher with great upside in the 5 hole. The bullpen is nearly the same as the one who finished with a 3.81 ERA.

Manny is just sitting at home right now. Bob claims he wants to build a winner. Here is the chance. Pick up the phone and get Manny here.

Actual Reds News

John Fay is reporting a trade between the Reds and Orioles in which the Reds would send Ryan Freel and a mid-level prospect to Baltimore for the Orioles catcher Ramon Hernandez and some cash to cover the difference in salaries. I like this trade. Here is the breakdown of the two players:

Freel: 32 years old. 2009 stats of .298/.340/.359, OPS+ of 82. 0 HR's 10 RBI's in 48 games and 131 AB's. Played in 99+ games in 3 of his 6 pro seasons. Coming off surgery.

Hernandez: 32 years old. 2009 stats of .257/.308/.406, OPS+ of 86. 15 HR's and 65 RBI's in 133 games and 463 AB's. Played 99+ games in all 10 pro seasons.

I like this trade for a number of reasons. First and foremost, we are trading an oft-injured, utility player whose main asset is his speed and toughness. This speed and toughness is only in reputation because he is on the wrong side of 30 and has had significant injuries two years in a row. His grit and toughness don't show up on the field because he is always hurt. Besides, the Reds already have a super utility guy in Jeff Keppinger who can play all infield and corner outfield positions and doesn't get paid 4 million dollars. Freel was not useful on the Reds roster and the fact that anyone wants him amazes me.

Ramon Hernandez is not exactly Mike Piazza, but he is a serviceable catcher. He has spent the past 3 years in the AL East, the toughest division in baseball, yet still managed to put up 3 years of 111, 88, and 86 OPS+. A move to the National League and Great American Ballpark can only help those numbers. He could turn into a 20 HR guy and an OPS+ of around 100. What an upgrade that would be. He is also from Venezuela which can only help the communication between him and our pitching staff(Volquez, Cueto, Cordero). If he can help bring along Ryan Hanigan and hold down the catcher spot until Devin Meseraco, our first round pick in 2007, can make it to the big leagues, that would be a huge plus.

Worst case he serves as a back-up to Hanigan for the same price as Freel would have made while on the DL or serving as a light-hitting pinch hitter. Best case he catches for a few years and helps develop Cueto and Volquez until a younger catcher takes over and Hernandez backs him up. We all know he will be better than last years catcher, "The Human Out" Paul Bako.

This deal seems to sure up the catching spot meaning the only real focus is for a right-handed hitting outfielder who plays wither LF or CF. This will most likely be done via a trade of Homer Bailey. The rumored deal of Bailey for Jermaine Dye is apparently dead. I guess that means a trade for Carlos Beltran or signing Manny Ramirez. O wait, only 5 teams have a chance at Ramirez, the same 5 teams that had a chance at Beltran. Glad their is an even playing field out there.

How about that BCS

Everything is working out. The BCS is imploding and has now pissed off a pretty important school, Texas. If Oklahoma loses, all hell would break loose when Texas, a conference division loser, gets picked over Penn State and USC, both conference winners. There is also a chance that, even if Florida beats Alabama, the computers have the Gators so low, OK and Tex could be 1-2. Wouldn't that be fun. An 8 team playoff would fix all this. If it were seeded strictly based on BCS standing with the higher seed having a home game (which would easily sell out in about 5 minutes) it would look like this:

Penn State at Alabama,
Texas Tech at Oklahoma,
Utah at Texas, and
USC at Florida.

Wow. Only one game TT-OK looks bad because they played 2 weeks ago and it wasn't pretty. But Penn State-Alabama and USC-Florida would be huge and Utah going to Austin would be intriguing. Instead we get USC-UCLA, OK-Mizzu, and BC-VT this weekend. Alabama-Florida is the only intriguing game. One big game rather than 3. College football could be so much better than it already is and the BCS is holding it down. There is no reason for it anymore. None. Protecting the regular season got thrown out when Oklahoma jumps Texas even though Texas won the regular season game. The season is not a playoff because in a playoff, when you beat someone, they are eliminated. They don't vault ahead of you. I hope Florida wins and UT-OK finish first and second. That would piss off the entire SEC as well as the Pac-10 champ USC. Would be fun to watch the BCS squirm to cover that up. It would be the most ridiculous championship game since LSU "won" the title over #1 USC in 2003.

Another weekend road trip

This weekend I go to the Mecca of College Football, the site of the College Football Hall of Fame, and the campus of the most storied team in the history of College Football, Notre Dame University in South Bend, Indiana. Notre Dame(-20) has a big game this weekend against the power of the Big East, Syracuse. I mean, I think they are a power. They must be if they have beaten Louisville two years in a row. O wait, they are terrible just like the Cards. Louisville, on the other hand, plays West Virginia(-7). Two years ago, this was the biggest game in the country and the greatest game I have ever attended. Now, it is two disappointing teams coached by two overmatched men struggling to keep the fan base from turning. Utah(-7.5) also has a tough game against BYU. A win puts them in a BCS Bowl. The Apple Cup featuring Washington(-7) and Washington State, combined record of 1-20 should be awesome. The big game of the day is obviously Texas Tech at Oklahoma(-7). I am getting goosebumps just thinking about it. I think it is the closest we will get to a playoff semifinal. The winner will probably win the Big 12 and go to Miami (although Texas may not be too happy about being passed up for Oklahoma after they whipped them last month).

My picks- I will take Syracuse(+20) to cover because it will be cold and Notre Dame has trouble closing out games (See: Navy last week), West Virginia to run it up and try and earn a better bowl. Louisville will quit on their coach in the hopes he will get fired even though he will not. In the Battle of the Mormans I will take Utah to win and clinch the BCS bowl. The Apple Cup will be won by Washington because Willingham will not go winless. In the semifinal game, I will take Texas Tech. It is mostly a sentimental pick because I like Mike Leach, although not as much as this guy, and I want them to whip Florida or Alabama in the championship to shut up the SEC fans. Have a good weekend watching these games. I will be hanging out with this guy:

Recap of the weekend, intro to basketball season

Well I went to two cold, boring games. Both ended in disappointment. Steve Kragthorpe continued his march toward the unemployment line Friday with a sorry showing against Cincinnati, ending a six game winning streak and handing back the keg of nail. Poor preparation, poor execution, and mental mistakes doomed the Cards. I wonder who is to blame for that?

On Sunday I witnessed an historic event. The Bengals managed to tie for only the second time in franchise history and first time since the 1960's. Hey, at least the Eagles didn't win. Kickoff temperature was 37 degrees so I am glad I got to sit there for the longest game possible in an NFL regular season game. With that, football is over. Congrats to the overrated SEC team of the year (Florida or Alabama) for winning the championship. Onto college basketball.

Louisville will win it all. There I said it. Here is a little video to get everyone pumped.



Only Padgett and Caracter are missing from those highlights. This team will dominate and go something like 33-3. North Carolina will choke because that is what Roy Williams does 99% of the time (2005 he was so loaded with talent even when he tried he couldn't lose). Pittsburgh, Michigan State, and UCLA will join them in Detroit. One team that will not, UK. They were humiliated, again, at home. If Tubby had done this, I don't want to think about what they would have done. Of course, there is one big difference between Tubby and Billy DUI and it can't be changed by better recruiting or winning titles.

I managed to get a video of his meeting this week with his coaches. Slightly NSFW because of racy subtitles.

Weekend Edition

Not much going on this week in terms of football. The Jets and Farve beat the Cheaters in Foxborough last night. I guess it is not as easy without cheating. No real college games to speak of as most teams have easy games before next week's rivalry games. The only ones of interest are Florida-South Carolina, Georgia-Auburn, and Texas-Kansas. I will take the Ole Ball Coach to keep it close and maybe pull of a stunner. He should have beat the Gators the year they won it all but they were lucky enough to have a defender jump in the exact spot the ball went twice. Totally ridiculous and flukey. A foot from losing and shutting up those insufferable SEC fans. As for the other two games Georgia will beat Tuberville and send him to the unemployment line and Colt will beat the fighting Manginos. Speaking of Mangino, here are the two(1, 2) funniest pictures of the year regarding him.

I will be attending two great games this weekend. Tonight, Louisville (hopefully) continues the Steve Kragthorpe farewell tour tonight against number 22 Cincinnati in the battle for the Keg of Nails, one of the weirdest and most meaningless trophys in college football. Three tough games and then maybe, hopefully the misery will end. I will let these guys take it from here.

Sunday I take a drive to the great city of Cincinnati for the Bengals-Eagles clash. This will be great because I get to participate in Project Mayhem and yell at Philly fans, two of my favorite things. I will have an update on Monday of how the weekend went but suffice it to say there will be drinking, yelling, sulking, and complaining about the coach and organization from both games. Thank god the Reds are the beacon of sports with their great management and on field coach. O wait. This whole site is dedicated to his incompetence. Damn

Finally, RIP FJM.

Not so Hot Stove, BCS mess

Well the Hot Stove League has begun and the Reds are sifting through the bottom of the pot. (attention FJM: food metaphor) The names mentioned are Garret Atkins, Willy Taveras, and Yorvit Torrealba. None of these players should be considered as they provide little or no upgrade over a replacement player from the minor leagues while adding payroll. I like the idea of the Reds going after a CF who can lead off but one with a .308 OBP is not good enough. While no Corey Patterson numbers, still pretty bad at 55 OPS+. Atkins seems to be another Edwin Encarnacion but a little older and Torrealba is a backup at best. Nice to hear the Reds talked about but none of these players makes sense.

Onto football where the BCS seems to be coming into focus thanks to Penn State's loss and the overhyped SEC. Florida has played well recently, against mediocre competition and everyone thinks they are the best team in the land. This is the same Florida who lost at home to Ole Miss and finished last year losing to Michigan in a bowl game. What have they done to deserve this ranking? Beat UGA, who has no signature win, whipped severly overrated LSU at home? I don't get it. Alabama's big win was at UGA(not looking so good anymore)? vs. Clemson?(no way) at LSU(no real win to speak of). And none of them play anyone out of conference so there is no chance of a good win there. The Big 12 is miles ahead.

Oklahoma lost a close game to Texas while playing a much better out of conference schedule (TCU and Cincy). Texas lost at the last minute on the road to the #2 team. Texas Tech has beaten Texas and Oklahoma St in consecutive weeks. Missouri has only lost to Texas and Oklahoma State while beating Illinois out of conference. I would take UT, TT, and OK over Bama, UF, and UGA. I would also take Mizzu and OK St over LSU and South Carolina. The top 5 of the Big 12 blow away the top 5 of the SEC. In a real playoff the two big 12 teams would play in the title. This year, an SEC team will play a Big 12 in Miami. If Florida is the representative the SEC will once again have a national title home game just like LSU's two championships. The current BCS is a joke and any person who argues for it is either a college president or an SEC fan. Those are the two people who benefit from the system.

This guy really agrees.

Baseball wrap, Weekend Ahead, Red Sox note

Well the season is over and Philly won the title just as I predicted. That means I was 5 of 7 in my predictions. Not bad overall. I will try and give a preview of the 2009 Reds including what we need (SS, CF, C) and what we don't need (old, slow players who refuse to get on base). Otherwise, the blog will turn to football, both pro and college, as well as basketball, college only until the NBA playoffs, when teams start trying. There will also be some TV, food, and other topics thrown in for fun. Now some quick thoughts on football this weekend.

-UGA-UF will be the highlight of my weekend. Last year's game featured a combined 72 points, 2 Heisman contenders(Tebow and Moreno) and one great celebration. This years game features many of the same players plus an added element thanks to the celebration. Will Tebow and the Gators dance when they score, will Richt pull out another crazy idea, will there be an all out fight. I say yes to all. In the end, UGA's young, pathwork offensive line will falter as it did against Alabama and UF will make one great play on special teams to pull out the win 38-24.

-Texas-Texas Tech will be an interesting matchup. TT will throw the ball all over. Texas will blitz against a line that has allowed fewer than 5 sacks all year. The winner of that battle wins the game. I say TT wins because blitzing fails more than it works. Ask the Giants. you need to be able to get pressure with only 4 in order to succeed. Blitzing against TT will give Harrell one-on-one and he will pick them apart. Any worry I would have if I were Texas is that this is the biggest game in Lubbuck ever. This is the third biggest game for Texas this month. Who do you think will be more focused and ready. I will take TT in a squeaker 41-38. If Texas loses but somehow wins the Big 12 with 1 loss, and the SEC champ has one loss, I can't wait for the insanity of who gets to beat PSU in the title game. It is gonna be awesome.

-quick note regarding the Red Sox sloberfest posted yesterday. Yes, they have home-grown some talent. Yes, they have a large fan base. This is pretty easy to do when your area covers 5 states. The Red Sox own such a big territory that they can get their own TV station and make a ton of money off it. The Reds own half of Ohio, some of KY and some of IN. Their station is FSN Ohio which is only a small step above PBS in terms of quality and coverage. The Sox own MA, VT, NH, ME, most of RI and parts of CT. Their market is bigger thus generating more revenue from their TV station which is available in all of those states as well as on DirectTV. The Reds could never fund their own station and thus will never get the money that Boston does. And my problem with Boston, other than its fans, is how much it spends and how it spends it. They are able to draft players no one else can because they will pay huge bonus money no one else will. If the player flames out, it would hurt a normal team. The Sox just write it off and cut a million dollar check to another player to replace him. They can afford to pay Coco Crisp $5 million for 350 AB's, Julio Lugo $8 for 300 AB's, Jason Veritek $11 for a 73 OPS+, Schilling $8 to blog and piss people off. These would all be in the top 5 salary wise for the Reds and all were part time, no-time, or bad. The Reds mistakenly signed Eric Milton for 9 million and didn't recover for years. The Sox take it as if it were nothing because of their bags of money. If they make a mistake, they can correct it much easier than 26 other teams. That is unfair.

O, and the players you mentioned, only Nomar was home-grown. Manny, Papi, and Pedro were all bought for money that only 6 teams could have paid for. The Reds never had a chance at any of them. That also makes it unfair. Only one team in the last 15 years has won the World Series with a payroll in the bottom half of the league: The 2003 Florida Marlins. That shows how unfair it is. The only solution would be a salary cap. That will never happen because in order for MLB to make money, NY, BOS, LA, and CHI must be good. They can only be good if they can spend millions to fix their millin dollar mistakes. The cycle continues and, at the start of next season, 15 teams will KNOW they can't win a World Series. When do pitchers and cathers report?

Big Deal Palace Up and Running - Red Sox

Sorry for the long delay, but it took some time to get the new and improved Big Deal Palace up and running. I've finally got the internet and a TV at home, so watch out I may up my production to 2 times a month. I'll try to come back with a few posts in the next week on various topics. Today I'll take on the Red Sox:

While I know my comrade on this blog has been very critical of the Sox "buying" players and points to the Rays success as proving that you can overcome the Big Bad Money Taking Big Market Team by developing talent. While the Rays success illustrates small market teams can compete, it doesn't make the Red Sox model obsolete or even bad. Unless you are a communist (and after this upcoming election we will all likely live in a socialist/communist society like Sweden, but that is a rant for another time and likely violates one of our rules about alienating people), you have to admire the way the Red Sox and Yankees take the revenues from running a successful team and put that money to making the team more successful. Boose's comments would lead one to a "wind fall talent tax" where the teams who generate enough interest to be profitable give some of their players to stupid teams like the Reds who overpay bad people and refuse to pay to keep talented people around (Adam Dunn). If this blog stands for anything (aside from getting dusty baker fired), it stands for capitalism and against socialism.

Boston does have the luxury of making more mistakes since they have an unlimited payroll, but that is because year in and year out they put a product on the field people are willing to pay for. They have found a way to maximize revenues by selling monster seats, pink hats and keeping their old stadium in decent shape. They have consistently paid for top players and even developed some talented players. Since they are willing to keep players around once they become good at baseball rather than sell them for more prospects (who they will get rid of when they get good at baseball), Boston has been able to create cult heroes that fans love (Manny, Nomar, Big Papi & Pedro).

Lets analyze why they have more money and point out the fundamental flaw in small market teams complaint that they just don't have the money to compete (basically assuming that those with money did nothing to deserve it). While metro boston is larger than metro cincy (~4mm vs 2mm), it isn't like Cincy is some sleepy Podunk tiny town. Cincy also doesn't need to support a hockey and basketball team, so it the Reds and Bengals (who don't seem like they will draw many people for years). There is a large enough population to support a baseball team (see 1970s and 80s). The reds stadium (which was paid for by taxpayers and not ownership) has luxury boxes, while Fenway doesn't, so technically is capable of producing more revenue. Cincy is a baseball town and the team was extremely popular in the 1970s when the team was good, so you can't argue Boston has more "history" or a better historical fan base. Cincinnati had the first professional baseball team and also has won a few more championships than Boston, so that excuse doesn't work either. National TV contracts are split, so all those boston-new york games on espn, Cincy sees some of that revenue. Boston has their own tv station (NESN) and is able to get all the revenue from that, but if demand were there Cincy could do the same thing.

So basically we can't hate Boston for "buying" world championships, because they have no built in advantage over Cincy as it relates to generating revenue (same cannot be said for NY, LA or Chicago which are much bigger cities). You can hate Boston for many things (the cold weather, Barney Frank, the fake sox fans who came out of nowhere over the past two years, the slightly overweight women of Cambridge), but hating them for buying championships is just hating success. Instead of saying the sox put a good product on the field, which can win titles every season because they have money, it would be more apt to say The Sox have money because they put a good product on the field and are competitive every game.

The Reds need to take a look at the Sox business model and find a way to put a good team on the field every season, quit rebuilding all the time and let the fans know you plan to make long term commitments to good players, find other ways to generate revenue and learn how to evaluate talent properly. A good start to all of this would be to get rid of Dusty Baker and find a competent manager and GM, who understand that a computer is not scary and it isn't a sin to allow statistical facts about a players ability to color your gut judgement about that players ability.

We have made this the quest of the blog, but i think gotten off track as our team went down and others succeeded. It is time to right the ship and make sure our single focus as it relates to baseball (we will continue to comment on all things non-baseball. Trust me there will be a full season recap of RR/RR Challenge this year as it is amazing) is to educate the good people out there about how to take a once very proud franchise that could dominate an entire decade back to the front of the MLB pack. The first step in that goal is firing Dusty Baker.

Viva La Revolution

Quick Thoughts

-So the Phillies are going to win the series, just as I predicted. Also, no shame in taking the Bill Belicheat approach to the game. It is only cheating if you get caught. I am sure the dirt that collected all season just happened to be in that one spot. Happens all the time, just ask Kenny Rodgers. There it is folks, the Honorable Phillies, your 2008 World Series Champs, from the Honorable city of Philadelphia. (Yes, this is an attempt to jinx them.)

-Got to love college football this year. Penn State, with their ONE big win will likely play in the title game. Alabama has played ONE good game thus far (at UGA) and will play another in the SEC title game. (The LSU game is mediocre after the Tigers have been exposed against UGA, South Carolina, and UF. What a great SEC defense they have, allowing 125 points in the last 3 games). USC played ONE good game against a non-Pryor lead Ohio State. (At UVA is mediocre now that they may win the ACC) After all that, the decision of who plays Texas is decided by writers and coaches who watch, at best, half the top 25 each week. Sound reasonable. I would hate for those 3 teams, which are practically indistinguishable right now, play in a 4 team playoff with Texas. (Oklahoma is out because you have to at least qualify for your championship game to be considered) Let's let some very biased human beings decide it. This helps preserve the regular season. That great regular season where every week matters. Except the last week because you can lose then and still go to the title game or go undefeated and have no chance at it. (See LSU last season, Nebraska years ago, Oklahoma in 2003, Boise 2 years ago, Aubrun 2004, etc. ) This system is really working.

-So it is down to the Bengals and Lions. Both staring 0-16 and a place in history in the face. Here is the Bengals remaining schedule with my win probability in parenthesis: Jax (5%), BYE (80%), Philly (15%), at Pit (2%), Balt (10%), at Indy (15%), Wash (20%), at Cle (25%), KC (40%). Not looking good.

Here is the Lions schedule: at Chi (15%), Jax (10%), at Car (15%), TB (10%), Ten (5%), Min (15%), at Indy (10%), NO (15%), at GB (10%). Not much better. The only difference I see is Detroit has 6 home games remaining. Cincy has a bye and a finale against a terrible KC team. I'd say it is pretty much 50/50 but, knowing that Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably start for the rest of the year, I will take the Bengals to complete the perfect season.

-I have written before about my love of hamburger helper. The cheesburger macarroni is excellant along with the standards of Lasagna, four-cheese, and beef pasta. But did you know they have Chicken Helper. Cooked the same way only with Chicken. I recommend the Chicken Fried Rice or the Fettuccine Alfredo as a change of pace. Chicken is easier to cook(no draining) and, when mixed with some Frank's Hot Sauce, can be mighty tasty. I should get a Betty Crocker sponsership for this.