Thoughts on the fight and a look ahead

Let me first say this: Brandon Phillips shouldn't have said what he said. I know why he said it but I don't think it was right to tell it to reporters. The past few years, the Cardinals have done a lot of bitching and moaning. They accused Bronson Arroyo of having something on his hat to doctor pitches. Twice they have accused the Reds of not having sticky enough balls even though they are the same they have always been. Funny that there was no complaint about the balls this week when they won all 3 games. The Cardinals also complained about the Brewers untucking their shirts after games. I would have thought the Cardinals wouldn't be able to see that from their high horse. So in general, they complain. Everyone knows it. No need to say it Brandon.

Having said that, the Cardinals handled it very poorly. The way it should have played out was for Garcia to fire a fastball into Brandon's back to start Tuesday's game. Message sent: Message received. Move on. Apparently, that isn't the Cardinal way. They would rather start a fight.

Brandon tapped the shin guard of Molina and the umpire just like he did the night before and every other game this year. It is his way of saying have a good game. It isn't a buddy-buddy thing because he tapped the guard Monday, an hour after he made the comments. Molina didn't like it. He should have given the sign to hit Brandon in the back but he didn't want that. He wanted a fight so he got in Brandon's face. Let's fight. There was pushing and the benches cleared but nothing serious. Dusty and Tony argued to protect their teams and increase a crazy feud they have between them. Everything was calming down until Asshat Carpenter got involved. According to John Fay, he dropped the big two words which set off Rolen and the rest of the Reds. The fight moved to the wall and netting behind home. Cueto, who had just finished pitching the top of the first got caught up against it. His body went parallel. He didn't have time to think and went into survival mode. He couldn't punch back because he was horizontal so he did the only thing he could do and kicked like hell. He caught Jason LaRue and Jonny Gomes. Maybe a few others. Then it stopped and the game continued after both managers were ejected. Fine. No big deal.

Then the Cardinals started bitching again because when you are called complainers, the best way to shed that label is pick a fight, escalate the fight, then whine when the other team fights back. Mr. Sportsmanship, Tony DUI La Russa, complained about the way Cueto fought back. I guess he was supposed to stay there and risk serious injury. That is what a Cardinal would have done. The Reds fought back and someone got hurt. Guess what? It was a fight Molina started. Don't whine when we fight back. God I hate the Cardinals.

So to sum up, Brandon shouldn't have opened his mouth, Molina shouldn't have gotten in his face, and the Cardinals need to quit whining.

Now on to the Marlins. Need to win 2 of 3 and get some momentum before the west coast road trip that will define the season. Josh Johnson goes tonight. I recommend everyone watch because he is amazing. Probably the best in the NL right now.

Reds keep Rolen

I must say I am shocked at how well the team has played since the debacle in Atlanta. I expected a slump and extended losing streak. I expected mental errors and poor fundamentals. None of that happened and I am starting to think it has something to do with a certain veteran infielder.

Scott Rolen is having his best season in 5 years and the rest of the team is feeding off him. His stat line is very impressive at .272/.341/.556/.897/134 for an above average, 35 year old thirdbasemen. The young guys see what he does and learn from it. Phillips has learned to take more walks, walking at a rate of 9.4% when his previous high was 6.8%. Joey Votto has improved his defense and has an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of 3.9. The next closest firstbaseman is 2.2. Bruce, who had been in a bit of a power slump until last night, hasn't let that bother him. He has put up .278/.379/.457/.836/121 while playing the second best rightfield according to UZR. Johny Gomes is have a career year. Drew Stubbs has turned it around after a terrible start. Janish and Hanigan have played so well that they could be starters at any time. And Cabrara has.....well he has some RBIs. Yeah. The big change the Reds made between last year at this time and now is Scott Rolen. Everyone talks about how seriously he takes his job and how much he works at his game. It seems to be working. As long as he is in the lineup, the team looks very confident. They are fun to watch, something that hasn't been true in recent years. So from everyone in Reds Country, thanks Scotty.

(Yeah, I am totally glossing over the fact that some of this may have to do with Dusty not sucking but I don't buy it. He still sucks. If you want to hear how great he is, you probably shouldn't visit a website entitled Fire Dusty Baker)

Second Base Breakdown

Brandon Phillips (.276/.329/.447/.776/102, 20 HR, 98 RBI, 25 SB)

Phillips had a solid 2009 thanks to his hitting and defense. He did not win another gold glove but did finish above average in the defensive metrics. His hitting had improved as he has adjusted to being an everyday player. His walks have gone from 33 to 39 to 44 which shows he is becoming more patient at the plate. If he can get that number over 50 and continue hitting at .275 his OBP would be up to .345, a very good number for a second basemen playing great defense. His K's have also fallen the past 3 years from 109 to 93 to 75. All these are signs of a hitter coming into his own. He is only 28 and still in his prime for a few more years so he can continue to be a conrnerstone of the franchise. His backup will probably be Aaron Miles or Drew Sutton, both competing for the super-sub role. Brandon's future with the club is still somewhat of a mystery.

He makes $6.75 million this year, $11 million next year and a $12 million dollar team option for 2012. At the time it seemed reasonable but now that $11 million is way too high and the $12 million will never be touched. He wants to be a leader but it doesn't appear his teammates have totally bought in. The Reds will have to monitor how he is in the locker room to determine if he is someone they want to keep around or trade for minor leaguers and promote one of the top prospects to 2nd base. Getting all or even part of that 11 million in 2011 off the payroll would provide some financial relief, something always important to the bottom 15 payrolls who have no chance of winning the world series. His situation could get interesting if the Reds are out of it at the deadline and someone needs a solid 2nd basemen. Some of our best prospects are younger, cheaper, and can play 2nd. I hope he stays but wouldn't be shocked to see him traded in July for a prospect and financial relief.

Baseball Thoughts

Another lost season kept me away in August. Hey, at least it lasted that long. Here is what you may have missed.

-The Reds need Scott Rolen to stay healthy. I know that is like asking PacMan Jones to stay out of strip clubs or Brett Farve to stay retired but it is true. The Reds are 11-4 when he has played, all 4 losses coming to playoff contending LA and Colorado. If he stays healthy next year, an enormous if, the Reds could be good. Unfortunately, here are his total games played the last 5 years: 56, 142, 112, 115, 102, and probably about 120 this year. He also turns 35 around opening day next year. I hope he stays healthy because his OPS+ has still been 107 and 118 the past 2 years and his defense is an A-, much better then anyone playing third since Chris Sabo. I am not optimistic he can stay off the DL though.

-Dusty has completed his dismantling of the once promising starting staff. Volquez had Tommy John Surgery and is done until late 2010. Cueto is on the DL and has not been himself since May. Harang, who was ruined last season in the 18 inning San Diego game (the game that revived this blog), was ruined on almost the exact same day this season when Dusty sent him out after a rain delay of over two hours in order to get one more out, and thus a win. He was 5-4 with a 3.36 ERA at that point. After, he was 1-10 with a 4.80 ERA and his OPS against has jumped 100 points. Awesome. Now he is done for the season because his appendix burst. I bet he did it to himself in order to avoid Dusty's torture. If Homer Bailey is smart, he will lay low until Dusty is gone or he is a free agent. Save yourself Homer!

-The Reds field a minor league team every day. Currently, the Reds are starting 2 players that would actual start on a contending team, Votto and Phillips. The other 6 are bench/role players or rookies who have potential. Dusty loves role players and cast offs. Reminds him of where he will be next year. If you were the manager and the season was clearly lost, wouldn't you play the rookies to let them learn? Wouldn't any sane person? You would think. But you would be wrong. Dusty played Willy Taveras and his 45 OPS+ at the top of the order up until he got hurt. Alex Gonzalez and his 43 OPS+ continued to play and bat second until he was traded. Now that they are gone, Dusty has been forced to play Janish, a defensive whiz who is starting to hit better after Dusty sat him for all but 3 games in July and killed any confidence he had, and Drew Stubbs, who is another defensive whiz and should start everyday in 2010. Other then that, it is pretty boring. Injuries have been everywhere. I'm sure that is what Dusty will blame. Good teams overcome them, bad teams blame them. Guess which one the Reds are?

-There is still a chance the Reds could get to 4th, or even third place. They currently sit 3 games out of 4th and 4.5 games out of third. They have 6 games remaining against the Pirates and 6 against Houston. Take 9 of those 12 and it could happen. Lose and maybe Dusty will get fired. Then again, maybe not.

Another post later on the return of football.

Treading Water

A sweep in Milwaukee, DL trips for our 2 best players in 2008, could it get any worse? I sure hope not. Right now the Reds need to tread water and stay above .500 until they get healthy. Votto is gone for at least 2 weeks, maybe longer. No one is saying what the stress-related, personal issue is but it sounds bad if they won't say what it is. The Reds have said it is related to his dizziness from earlier in the month. Volquez pitched one inning in his return before going back on the DL with tingling in his fingers, probably related to the back spasms that put him on the DL originally. That would mean a month without last years best position player and best pitcher. Thank goodness for Phillips' tear in May, going .352/.392/.682/ with 7 HR and 29 RBI. Another player that has been coming up big is Ramon Hernandez. He is currently at .282/.346/.380 for an 88 OPS+, but hit .313/.383/. 419 with 19 RBI in May as well. As I write this the Reds are leading the Cards 3-0 in the 3rd. If they can win tonight, they are assured a split in St. Louis before returning home for 3 against he Cubs. They should be 28-24 after tonight, thus assuring at least .500 after the next 4 games. Let's hope they can stay in the 3-5 games above for the next 2 weeks until Votto and Edinson return. Then they can really turn it on.

Mets on verge of sweep

Well the first 2 games were interesting. Opening day went as I thought, good pitching, no offense and a 2-1 loss. The second game looked like the old Reds. Score a bunch of runs, give them back thanks to bad defense, then leave runs out there thanks to double plays and bad base running. I thought Dusty preached good base running and defense. That is why we got rid of our home-run, on base machine Adam Dunn. Sorry Dusty. It didn't work. We pissed away a good hitting day because of an error by Gonzalez, a non-error by Bruce that led to 2 extra runs, and a base running error. Not to mention some bad pitching by Mike Lincoln.

Let me breakdown the good and bad so far:

POSITIVES
-Joey Votto's bat. He has been great and is hitting the ball very hard. 4-8 with a homer including a hit and a walk against Johan Santana, the best pitcher in the NL. He seems to have improved off his unbelieveable rookie year. I think the WBC really helped him. He got to hang out with Morneau and Bay for team Canada and learn about hitting. Also, playing in that playoff atmosphere has him ready to experiece that in the big leagues. Unfortuneatly. it will probably be for Toronto in a few years once the Reds trade him there.

-Brandon Phillips' patience. Don't look know because you may jinx it but BP has decided he doesn't have to swing at everything. He has walked 3 times in the first 2 games which is amazing for a player who has yet to walk 40 times in 162 games. Keep it up.

-Edwin Encanacion's patience. I can't comment on his bat seeing as how he is 0-5 but he has managed to keep it on his shoulder enough to draw 4 walks. Why the Mets have walked him when it is clear he is struggling to make solid contact is beyond me.

NEGATIVES
-Dusty Baker. You knew this one was coming. He put in Laynce Nix and Darnell McDonald before Wily Taveras when Wily was clearly healthy enough to play. He legged out a triple then scored on a sac fly. Doesn't sound like someone who is too sick to play. Letting those other 2 swing a bat when a capable, better player sits on the bench is inexcusable. Then again, so is allowing Carlos Beltran and his 118 career OPS+ to hit with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1st base open. WALK HIM and let your great D turn the double play. Instead, Beltran singled up the middle for 2 runs, the 2 runs the Mets needed to win the game. Well done Dusty.

-Reds pitching control. 7 walks opening day, 7 walks last night. Granted, the Mets are a patient team but walking nearly a batter an inning is terrible. I know Dusty thinks it clogs the bases so he probably encourages walks but it doesn't clog anything. Only when it brings up the pitcher or creates a double play does it make even a little bit of sense. The Reds pitchers need to find the strike zone and find it now or it could be a long season.

The Mets go for the sweep this afternoon which shouldn't be to hard thanks to an injury to the statue that is Jerry Hairston. His totally foreseeable injury forces Darnell McDonald into the lineup again. Darnell is a 30 year old journeyman outfielder with a grand total of 45 ab's in the majors. He is not good at baseball. Glad he could start 2 of the first 3 games for the Reds instead of someone like Gary Sheffield or Drew Stubbs. Gary has his fielding limitations but can still hit and Stubbs has never been in the big leagues bit has shown promise and deserves a shot. Either one would be an improvement over McDonald and both cost the same amount of money. I guess Dusty felt that after trading journeyman Jeff Keppinger he needed McDonald to fill the "trys hard but can't really play baseball" void. Too bad David Eckstien wasn't available.

Infield

The positional breakdown has now moved into the field. The Reds infield is fairly set with the only variable being injuries and Dusty Baker's stupidity. These two are very similar because they can be unpredictable and cause great anger to Reds fans everywhere. Let's hope the injuries don't creep up because Dusty's ignorance is unavoidable and will probably be enough to drive most fans to drinking. I have already started. Here is how the infield breaks down by position:

C
Starter: Ramon Hernandez (.257/.308/.406, OPS+ of 86)
Backup: Ryan Hanigan (.271/.367/.365, OPS+ of 91 in only 85 AB's)

In the offseason the Reds made one trade. That trade sent oft-injured and useless Ryan Freel to Baltimore for the oft-aloof and useless Ramon Hernandez. Seems like a case of both guys needing a change of scenery. Hernandez was criticized last season for seeming disinterested and not trying his hardest(Adam Dunn behind the plate). This may have had to do with the fact that Baltimore's best prospect was goign to take his spot behind the plate very soon. He still managed to put up pretty good numbers in the toughest division in baseball. Instead of facing 4 of the best rotations in baseball(Tor, NYY, Bos, TB) he gets to feast on some of the worst (Pit, Mil, Hou). I would also hope that a new team with great young Latin talent would get him excited about playing again. Not to mention our manager and his ability to get the best out of players. If he can improve to a .270/.320/.420 he would be the best catcher the Reds have had since Joe Oliver. Ok, that may be a stretch but I just wanted to give a shout out to the fromer World Series Hero. Hanigan played well in his September callup and is a much better defensive catcher then Hernandez. He will need to show he can hit everyday in the majors before he takes over the job. A year of backing up/spot starting would be a great way to break him in.

1B
Starter: Joey Votto (.297/.368/.506, OPS+ 124)

Last season's Rookie of the Year Runner-Up solidified his spot here for years to come. He started in a platoon with Scott Hatteberg (Thanks Dusty) but soon proved he needed to play every day. The key to him is that he was able to hit the same whether it was a RH or LH pitcher. He drew walks and hit to all fields which made him very dangerous. His defense was very up-and-down, mostly down, but he improved as the year went on and will hopefully continue that. He is only 25 and should be a staple of the Reds for a long time. Or at least until he gets too expensive and moves to a team that has money.

2B
Starter: Brandon Phillips (.261/.312/.422, OPS+ of 92)

Brandon's stats declined a little last season from his OPS+ of 105 in 2007. This is partly because he was moved to cleanup hitter and asked to hit homeruns. This didn't work. So what does Dusty do? Put him back at #4 this season. Brilliant. He OBP has never been great but last season he drew more walks in fewer AB's and cut down on his strikeouts. If he can return to '07 form, he could be good again. His defense is his strength. A former SS, his range in unbelieveable and, if not for a ridiculous '07 vote, he would have 2 straight gold gloves. He has been trying to become a leader, even attending the Reds caravan, something usually given to rookies because it takes away from time on the golf course. The question is whether his teammates will follow his lead. The best way to get the respect is to play and play well. Winning would also help.

SS
Starter: Alex Gonzalez (.272/.325/.468, OPS+ of 99 all in 2007)

Gonzalez is back and said to be 100% after missing all of last season after having knee surgery. '07 was a great year for him at the plate but his defense and playing time were down. This could have been because his child was suffering from medical issues and took his focus off the game. This season, everything is good and he should be ready to go from day one. If his defense returns to what it was a few years ago and his batting stays strong he could be one of the better SS's in the national league. Before the injury, he was widely regarded as one of the best defensive SS in the game. His '07 year at the plate was also one of his best. His health and return to form will be a major factor in whether the Reds can improve and possibly contend this season.

3B
Starter: Edwin Encancion (.251/.340/.466, OPS+ of 106)

Edwin regressed last year, both at the plate and in the field. His explanation for his struggles at the plate was kept trying to pull the ball out of the ballpark. This season he is going to try and spray it to all fields which should help his average. He still draws a ton of walks, much to Dusty's chagrin, and has the power to hit 20 HRs. Still young at 26 he should improve at the plate and on the field. His defense was atrocious last season but was pretty good the year before. I'm sure his actual ability is somewhere in the middle. He should continue to hit and put up a solid OBP. Improvement in the fielding and throwing would boost him to the top tier of NL 3rd basemen.

Utility IFs
All positions-Jeff Keppinger (.266/.310/.346, OPS+ of 70)
SS, 2B-Jerry Hairston Jr. (.326/.384/.487, OPS+ of 124)

Keppinger is a serviceable utility man who can hit when healthy. His numbers last season were down but that is partly because he was rushed back from a knee injury and played at less then 100%. At full strength his OPS+ is about 100 but his range at short is very limited. Hairston is in the battle for LF but can also play CF, SS, and 2B which makes him very useful. He can also serve as a leadoff hitter and the Reds were very good when he played last season. Of course, last season was a career year for him which he attributed to being 100% for most of it. Unfortunately that didn't last long because he was back on the DL a few times. The Reds will need him as a backup and spot starter and if he can stay healthy, a big if, he will be a solid RH bat off the bench.

One other player in the running for the utility spot is Wilkin Castilo, a player acquired in the Adam Dunn trade. He is only 24 and can play all IF spots including C. He received 30 AB's last September but will probably start the season back in the minors until his hitting improves or someone gets injured.

The infield is a solid hitting bunch with the corners being the strength and the middle being average to above-average. The defense, other then 2B, is a big question mark. Gonzalez is older and coming off a season ending injury and the corners are young and error-prone. If they improve and Gonzalez is back to his old form, they could be good. If they don't improve and Gonzalez is limited, the Reds will once again be at the bottom of the NL in terms of defense. Let's hope for the former and not the latter.