Bring Back Donkey! Who is this Donkey?

So was going to write a quick post that we should bring back the Donkey. We have been shut out more than any team in the league and this guy can hit it out of the park. Now i know he is a defensive liability (but so is our SS and he can't even hit), but his bat makes up for it. Sure Lance Nix has been decent, but with one more bat we have a top of the order that will score runs (again excluding Cabrera which Boose has covered many times). If we are serious about winning the World Series then lets take a chance, bring back someone the city loves and have two guys on the team battling for the HR title. If you are going to post that he strikes out too much, please also provide evidence that a strike out costs you more outs than a ground out before embarrassing yourself.

Now that I've covered the Donkey coming to Cincinnati. I ran across this article written by a Donkey, A look at the current Reds vs. the last World Series team in Cincinnati. Interesting question so I gave it my time. Lets go fjm style and break it down:

With the Cincinnati Reds being contenders with a lot of young talent, talk around Reds Country has been how the current Reds measure up to some of the great Reds teams of the past. I have seen the Reds win the World Series three times in my lifetime and I won't insult your intelligence by comparing the 2010 Reds with the Big Red Machine of 1975 and 1976 other than to say no current Reds' every day player would crack that lineup at the same position.

You could argue that, but I would give Votto's current MVP year slightly ahead of Perez in 1975(15th in MVP voting),1976(no votes). Also OPS 1.012 vs. .816/.776. But agree this team all around isn't nearly as good.

However, it is not uncommon to see the current Reds compared to the 1990 team that went 91-71 but won the World Series. Breaking the teams down position-by-position, I agree.

The first sentance makes little sense: they had a good record, but (which means contrary to what the first thought would convey) they won the post season tournament of the teams with good records.

Catcher: Joe Oliver/Jeff Reed vs. Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan. None of these guys will be mistaken for Johnny Bench, but they are adequate. The current team is better offensively, 1990 was better defensively. EVEN.

Given he decided that statistics are irrelevant here. So will I. Looking stuff up is hard with all the internets and since neither of us are professional writers it doesn't make sense... Wait this guy gets paid to write about baseball and can just give us "Four catchers aren't as good as one of the best catchers of all time". Well done indeed. Without looking it up I'll agree that we are even at catcher.

First base: Todd Benzinger/Hal Morris vs. Joey Votto. Good journeymen vs. an MVP candidate. EDGE: 2010.

Worth noting that Hal Morris was on steroids as well. That is embarrassing that he still sucked.

Second base: Mariano Duncan/Ron Oester vs. Brandon Phillips. Duncan had a career year and Oester was solid in his final year, but Phillips might be the best second baseman in the National League this year. EDGE: 2010.

Love a shout out to Ronny O, my favorite player of all time. Phillips might be the best second baseman in the NL this year, but to figure that out I'd have to look up how he compares with others this year and that seem like a lot of work

Shortstop: Barry Larkin vs. Orlando Cabrera. As good as Cabrera has been this year, Larkin should be in Cooperstown. Next question? BIG EDGE: 1990

Here is where he started to lose me "As good as Cabrera has been." How good has that been really? Is it the fact he gets more outs than anyone on the team or the fact he isn't that great defensively? It should read, guy who should be in the hall of fame vs guy who should be backup on my softball team

Third base: Chris Sabo vs. Scott Rolen. Different type players. Sabo's was perfect for the vast alleys at Riverfront Stadium, Rolen is great for Great American, is a bit better defensively but is often hurt. EVEN.

One was good at one ball park the other was good at another ball park. Dynamite stuff here. I wish someone would invest a stat that normalized for stadiums... wait... they do... Crazy, OPS+ Sabo 119 vs Rolen 139... Loved the goggles on Sabo, but Rolen is much better despite the injuries

Left field: Eric Davis vs. Jonny Gomes/Laynce Nix. Gomes, especially, and Nix have been solid. At times, Davis was incredible. EDGE: 1990.

"At times," does he mean various years or at times throughout 1990. 1990 wasn't Davis best year statistically, but agree he was better throughout the year than our guys. Aren't we comparing 1990 with 2010 or the careers of the players in 1990 vs the careers of the players in 2010 (the later makes no sense, but would make the Rolen vs Sabo discussion fairly easy)

Center field: Billy Hatcher vs. Drew Stubbs. This one is closer than you might think. EDGE: 1990.

(Note: Hatcher and Davis both played center and left in 1990. I used the World Series lineup.)

So it is closer than I might think. Why is that? I guess you did some research to prove these guys are statistically closer so please elaborate. Does he mean Stubbs OPS of .706 vs Hatcher at .708 which is very close. In fact so close that you would need to look deeper to prove Hatcher is better or just give it a push.

Right field: Paul O'Neill vs. Jay Bruce. In 1990, O'Neill hit .270 with 16 home runs. Through Saturday, Bruce was hitting .262 with 10 long balls. EVEN.

The first sign of statistics here and we go with bating average and home runs to call it even. I guess this is a start. Ironically Hatcher had 5HRs with BA of .276 vs. Stubbs 13HRs and .235 (so not sure what any of this means).

Starting pitching: Then, the staff had a bit more experience and a legitimate hammer in Jose Rijo. Currently, the staff has more depth and a couple of potential hammers in Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. SLIGHT EDGE: 2010.

I'm not going to bother to look at the entire list from 1990 because it is pretty long. I'll say Rijo was good and compare him to two of our other guys. Based on that I'll give it to 2010 because they have two guys with potential to be as good as one guy was during the time period in question (remember this isn't a question of which players will have the longest careers, but which team is better in a specific year. The fact Voltron or Cueto may be as good as Rijo one day is irrelevant to if the 2010 team has a better pitching staff than the 1990 team.).

Bullpen: Are you kidding? The current Reds' pen is getting better statistically but it has too many blown saves for me. The Nasty Boys might have been the greatest pen ever put together. HUGE EDGE: 1990.

Are you kidding ME? Explain "getting better statistically". I bet he is thinking that because Coco has more saves than he did in the beginning of the year he is getting better. Also too many blown saves for you, so it is really just the closer you have a problem with then. I mean Masset doesn't have any blown saves, but he isn't good. This is the reason we won't win the World Series, but hopefully they continue to get better statistically.

Bench: Very similar, from Luis Quinones to Glenn Braggs vs. Miguel Cairo to Chris Heisey. EVEN.

Don't care, as the next one will really put this over the top.

Managing and intangibles: Everything Lou Piniella touched 20 years ago turned to gold. Dusty Baker sure seems to be proving his skeptics wrong this year. But where the teams are most alike is they both seem to have that swagger, that cockiness that great teams have.

Dusty has not proven anything to this skeptic (see all previous posts). Both teams have swagger, which is leads to winning and is not a result of winning. When I was a freshman in high school at 5'2'' 98lbs, I got my butt kicked because I lacked swagger. My lack of cockiness had nothing to do with getting my butt kicked. The rest of this discussion isn't worth the response

Overall: The current Reds are good, not great, but have some pieces in place to be good for several years. Still, I give the 1990 team the advantage in four areas, the current team in three. Given the huge gap between The Nasty Boys and the current pen, the I believe the Reds' last world champion is just a bit better than this team.

Prediction: The Reds have what it takes to win the National League Central, which I think they will. But unlike 1990, the big trophy will go elsewhere.

So we aren't great yet, but might be someday (which isn't relevant to the current discussion). Based on the every one of his categories is equal the 1990 team barely gets passed this one coupled with the huge disparity in the area that will cost us the championship. Unlike 1990 the trophy will go elsewhere because we don't have Terry Hatcher and Rolen isn't better than Sabo. Great analysis here. Also if we make the post season in what round do we play the 1990 Reds. I would be much more worried about the Yankees or Red Sox, but hopefully we can take down those guys from 20 years ago.

--John Herndon
Thank you John. I'm glad espn.com linked to your article. It was very insightful

Baseball is Back, and so am I

Pitchers and catchers report this week. Spring training is upon us. I could not be happier that baseball is finally back.

I know I have been away for a while. It seems the Reds did nothing while I was gone so all 5 of my readers have not missed anything. I did some reflection and soul-searching and decided that I need to get back to the focus of this blog, the firing of Dusty Baker.

Dusty was brought in for many horrible, nonsensical reasons. One of which was his ability to lure free agents that would not otherwise come to Cincinnati. Since he has arrived, the Reds lost their two faces of the franchise, Griffey and Dunn, and have added no one. Where are these free agents he was going to lure? Manny is unsigned. I made my pitch for him. Abreu took 1 year and 5 mil. Even Griffey and Dunn took pay cuts and signed with other teams. HE HAS LURED NO ONE!

Can't wait for another season of bad cliches (injuries have hurt us, we are young, making stupid mistakes and need to focus) followed by no free agents signings and losing a few good players. That seems to be the Reds motto. That and avoid anyone who gets on base.

I will try and post most days and plan on breaking the Reds down by positions over the next week as players arrive at camp. Now a few quick links that you may have missed because, well, the Reds never make any news.

Griffey headed back to Seattle. Good for him. They like him there and he can have a nice little swan song. Imagine if he had started the juice when A-Rod and everyone else did in 2001. He may not have gotten injured or at least returned quicker and the Reds may have another banner or two. I guess cheaters do win.

Adam Dunn signed with Washington, and so did about 50 other Ex-Reds, including blog favorite Corey Patterson. I miss him already. The brilliantly named FireJimBowden.com has the list of Ex-Reds signed by the Nationals and C. Trent has a nice photoshoped picture of the new hats for Washington.


I guess there is one team the Reds should beat, a team full of their castoffs.

Well that is it for today. Expect more posts in the coming weeks breaking down the team as well as any updates if anything every happens, which it probably won't.

Awards Part II

Here are some more awards:

Greg Vaughn Award (Best new hitter acquisition) goes to........

Jerry Hairston Jr. I almost confused him with Jerry Hairston Sr. Thank goodness he keeps that Jr. on the end. This is the one Dusty signing that didn't tank. He played well when not injured. Unfortunately, he only managed 80 games and 260 AB's. If he could stay healthy for an entire season, he could be useful. Too bad he hasn't played more then 120 games since 2002 and will be 32 next season. It was a good run for him but he is not the answer for next year's Reds. Having said that Dusty will resign him and Patterson and give them each starting jobs then be totally confused when the Reds only win 60 games.

Danny Jackson Award (Best new pitcher acquisition) goes to.......

Edinson Volquez. Coco was a close second. I know Coco had his ups and downs but it was recently revealed that he had a problem with his foot all year. Add that to his 136 ERA+ and having an anchor in the ninth to open up Weathers and Burton for the 7th and 8th, major trouble spots for last years Reds and Coco comes in a close second. Volquez is the winner. I would trade Josh Hamilton again in a hearbeat. I would give his stats but I have a feeling he will get another award.

Chris Sabo Award (Best rookie hitter) goes to.......

Joey Votto. Could make a good case that he is the Rookie of the Year in the NL. Here are his and Soto's numbers. Guess which one are his.

Player A: .297/.368/.506, 32 2b's, 24 hr's, 84 rbi's, 124 OPS+
Player B: .285/.364/.506, 25 2b's, 23 hr's 86 rbi's, 122 OPS+

Eerily similar. Votto is player A and looking at purely offensive stats, he is better. Soto plays a much tougher position on a team headed to the playoffs so he should win the award. I'm just saying that it is close. I think he isn't going to win because all the voters hate Canadians like Votto. I know I do.

Scott Williamson Award (Best rookie pitcher) goes to.......

Johnny Cueto. He had his ups and downs but at the end of the day, you have to remember that he is 22 years old, started 31 games and won 9 times, threw 174 innings while posting a 94 ERA+, and 158 K's. If he continues to improve, he, Volquez, Harang, and Arroyo could be the more formidable top 4 in the division. Owings, Bailey, and any other pitcher simply need to hold down the 5th spot and the rotation is set.

Johnny Bench Award (Best Hitter) goes to.......

Adam Dunn. I know he only played on the team until August 10th but he put up another monster year with 32 hr's and 74 rbi's in only the 113 games in a Reds uniform. His OPS+ of 130 is tops among regular players and his 197 OPS+ with RISP and 2 outs shows he got it done when it mattered. I love the big donkey, and I miss the big donkey.

Mario Soto Award (Best Pitcher) goes to......

Edinson Volquez. He was electric. His struggles after the all-star break took him out of contention for the Cy Young but he was still a legit all-star who could strike out 10 batters any start. Here are his stats: 24 years old, 32 starts with 17 wins, 196 inning with an ERA+ of 140, and 206 K's. Ridiculous numbers from a kid who is still improving. Another year of work under the tutalige of Mario Soto and he could be one of the top 5 starters in the NL.

Dave Miley Award (Most clueless manager) goes to.......

Dusty Baker. He needs to be fired now and replaced with a competent person. Hell, I will take someone with a pulse at this point. Anyone would know Bako and Patterson can't play baseball. O well, the blog will continue until my dream is realized and someone else is managing my beloved Reds.

Awards for the season part I

Now that the Reds season is mercifully over and another losing season is in the books let me hand out some awards. I will try to have some positive ones and not give all the bad ones to Dusty but it will be tough after suffering through this 74-88 debacle.

Onto the awards:


Eric Milton Award (worst performance by a Reds free-agent pitcher) goes to........

Josh Fogg. He was supposed to be a shrewd signing by former GM Wayne Krivsky. It turned into a disaster. His stats go as follows: 2-7 in 14 starts and 8 relief appearances, 7.58 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 17 HR's allowed in 78 innings. Batting practice pitchers put up better numbers.

Juan Castro Award (worst performance by a Reds free-agent hitter) goes to..........

Corey Patterson. Was there any other choice? 3 million for a 48 OPS+. The only personnel director who thinks this was a good move is Mike Brown. But at least he hasn't been arrested 50 times like Brown's players.

Art Shell Award (worst performance by a coach) goes to.......

Brook Jacoby. This team was known for their good hitting and terrible pitching. Dick Pole somehow fixed the bullpen just in time for Jacoby to stand by while our hitters regress. Griffey nose-dived, EE failed to progress, and, if not for the rookies who were untainted by Jacoby, they would have been the worst line-up in the National League.

Entourage Award (most disappointing season from a formerly good player) goes to.....

Ken Griffey Jr. Aaron Harang would be the easy answer but I blame most of his struggles on Dusty. Griffey never got going and has only been worse since joining Chicago. Not once have I heard his name discussed. We all expected a big season if he stayed healthy. Well he was healthy and failed to produce. His season reminded me of Entourage last season. Everyone expected big things, then every week revolved around one stupid movie. We don't watch Entourage for the acting. The acting is awful. We watch it for the partying and fun side of Hollywood.

Friday Night Lights Award (most under appreciated player) goes to.....

Adam Dunn. The man was an amazing baseball player who loved the game, his teammates, and the city of Cincinnati. That is very hard to find. I wish more people would realize this and appreciate it just as I wish more people would appreciate FNL. The best show in TV is relegated to Directv this fall because ratings were so bad and Directv offered to pay some of the costs. Now all I need is a friend with Directv.

That is all for today. Come back tomorrow for more. (you didn't think I would give you all of them now. I need to increase my hits from 8 to 16.)

I love America; and I hate commies

So glad to see the American women beat the commie cheaters last night in gymnastics. I mean, alleged cheaters. Hey, if the state run age authority, state run athletics, and state run media say she is 16, then she must be. Except that the state media said she was 13 last year and 14 early this year. But those were just typos. Glad the state run media corrected itself only after it was caught by a free-thinking society. I mean if you can't trust the commies then who can you trust right.

Phelps goes for 7 tonight at 10:10. He should dominate. He has 2 swims left until he gets an entire week at the drunken orgy known as the Olympic Village. In Athens 4 years ago they handed out 75,000 condoms. That wasn't enough. In Beijing they are giving out 100,000. Now throw in the greatest Olympic champion ever with 8 gold medal around his neck. He will be more worn out after next week then he will be after this week.

Make sure you set the alarms for tomorrow morning as well. The men's 100m is tomorrow morning at 10:30. Should be very exciting to see Tyson Homosexual go up against the two Jamaicans. I am just going to assume everyone is free of drugs even though there is no possible way it is true. That is like going to a Red Sox game and thinking that fans actual care about the game. Most would rather wear their pink hats and talk on their cell phones just like track and field will always have athletes trying to beat the system. O well, still better then watching the Reds trot out Corey Patterson and The Human Out Paul Bako play everyday.

I received a comment regarding Dunn's defense and was a bit surprised at what I found. Anyone who has watched the Reds remembers awful plays he has made in the field like dropping flyballs, misplaying line drives, and making terrible throws. They do not remember his running catches and assists to nail a runner going to second. Baseball Prospectus has some complicated fielding statistics but the one constant is that this is his best defensive season and he has cut down on his runs allowed above average. Last year his rate2 was an 86 meaning he gave up 14 more runs per 100 games then an average LF. 100 is average and any number above or below that is how many more runs you save or give up per 100 games. This number is adjusted for ballpark, position, and normalized over time. This means a bad SS will give up more runs then a bad LF because a SS gets many more plays and can create or save many more runs. For example, Ozzie Smith averaged about a 115 meaning he saved 15 runs per 100 games above average. Derek Jeter is an 89 this year meaning he gives up 11 more runs per 100 games then an average SS. That is not good but at least he won the Gold Glove last year with a 98 or 2 runs per 100 games below an AVERAGE SS. That makes sense.

Now where was I. O yeah, Adam Dunn's defense. To put Dunn's 07 season in perspective, Barry Bonds had an 87, or was one better then Dunn's 86 last year. Ouch. This year, however, he is at a 95, very close to an average LF. He has improved greatly over the last 5 years to the point that his defense is no longer a liability and getting very close to average. O yeah, he also hits 40 HR's a year and gets on base 38% of the time, better then anyone else on the Reds. He can play a little below average in LF if he can be the most productive hitter in the lineup. I will take that trade-off anyday.

Dunn traded: I don't understand why

Adam Dunn is gone. Traded to Arizona. Amazing. His BA has dropped this year but he has put up a .233/.373/.528 and an OPS+ of 131, VORP of 24.9, both are the highest on the team. He is the most valuable bat in the lineup, can change the game with one swing, in the prime of his career, plays average defense, is the longest tenured Red, and the face of the franchise. Now he is gone and the young guys like Bruce and Dickerson get to learn how to play the outfield from the only other healthy outfielder, Corey the Great. Freel becomes the longest tenured Red and other than Bruce and Votto, there is no position player who will bring in fans.

If Dunn left after the year the Reds would get 2 picks in the top 100. If they were to trade him they would have to get a solid, young, major league ready prospect with very few questions of whether or not he will play in the majors. What did they get? They got a 23 year old, 3rd round draft pick, right-hander in high-A ball who has already had Tommy John surgery and two players to be named later, which of course means two players destined to stay in the minors. Horrible. Now there is no chance of him coming back next year and leaves the Reds with all their hopes for offense on the late developing Phillips and Encarnacion with Votto and Bruce still learning to play while trying to carry the middle of the order. I guess Corey really threatened Dusty with the incriminating pictures and now that Dunn is gone, he is guaranteed more playing time.

I am left speechless. I have pleaded with the Reds to lock Dunn down long term. They traded him for a bag of peanuts, some splintered maple bats, and a cactus from Arizona. There is no face of the franchise. Jay Bruce is now forced to carry the team on his 21 year old shoulders. Harang is turning into a mediocre pitcher and, not surprisingly, the young pitchers seem to be wearing down the more Dusty sends them out there for 110+ pitches. The season is over and, as for next season, I am almost ready to throw in the towel. Thank god football is almost back. The ineptitude of the Reds makes me long for Mike Brown and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Blown out in Canada

Last night was about as bad as it gets. Terrible doesn't begin to describe it. They teed off on Arroyo better than most teams do in batting practice. I could go up there and give up 10 runs in one inning. After the Reds blew a bases loaded no outs situation in the second, the game was over. It was depressing and barring a major turnaround in the next 5 games, could mark the end of the 2008 season. Here are some thoughts looking ahead toward what I believe is another fight for 4th in the NL Central.

-Dusty needs to go. His swing first and don't take walks approach is making the whole team a bunch of hackers. It is amazing how many players go up there swinging early in the count. They don't watch a few balls to get in a rhythm. They hack at an offspeed pitch and ground out on a 2-0 count. The bad players(I know that should be all of them but I am talking about Bako, Janish, Patterson, Ross, etc.) need to watch a few pitches and see if they can get a hitters count. Swinging at the first or second pitch guarantees an out. Waiting could result in a walk or seeing a better pitch. Phillips does the same thing. he swings at awful pitches way out of the strike zone because he is a power hitter and it is selfish for him to take a walk. Thanks to Dusty, Bruce and Votto have started hacking at bad pitches. A competent manager would allow them to work count and learn instead of swinging and running back to the dugout after a groundout ten seconds later.

-The following players are not cut out for the major leagues right now: Janish(OPS+ 19), Patterson(OPS+ 45), Bako(OPS+ 76), Arroyo(ERA+ 68). I don't know what you do with them although it was thought that Arroyo could be traded. Anything more than a few maple bat shards in the head would be great.

-Sign Dunn long term. I knwo this may be unpopular but he will get about 14 million and there is simply no replacement for him. Griffey comes off the books this year so signing Dunn won't kill our payroll. We will have players making the minimum in RF(Bruce), 1B(Votto), and at least 3, maybe 4 SP's(Volquez, Cueto, Thompson, Bailey). No one else besides Cordero makes eight figures. When Griffey leaves we can move Dunn up in the order so he could have a decent hitter batting behind him when he walks 100+ times a year. Dunn at 3 and Bruce at 4 would be amazing. Dunn will reach base 38% of the time and Bruce, who is a doubles machine, could drive in him and whoever else is on base.

-Let the kids throw 110 pitches every 5 days. No more. Give them a chance to get deep into a game and then, no matter where they are in the game, take them out once they hit the limit. No point in putting any more stress on their young arms when the game don't matter. Let them get experience and knowledge so we can contend next year with 5 ready to go starting pitchers.

-Give Harang a rest. The SD outing killed his arm. Put him on the 15 day DL and give him a few weeks off. The Red Sox did it with Beckett last year and he came back much better. Harang can still turn his season around and win 12 games but he needs a break to get his mind and body right.

That is all for now. I'm sure I will have more after another debacle tonight.