Baseball wrap, Weekend Ahead, Red Sox note

Well the season is over and Philly won the title just as I predicted. That means I was 5 of 7 in my predictions. Not bad overall. I will try and give a preview of the 2009 Reds including what we need (SS, CF, C) and what we don't need (old, slow players who refuse to get on base). Otherwise, the blog will turn to football, both pro and college, as well as basketball, college only until the NBA playoffs, when teams start trying. There will also be some TV, food, and other topics thrown in for fun. Now some quick thoughts on football this weekend.

-UGA-UF will be the highlight of my weekend. Last year's game featured a combined 72 points, 2 Heisman contenders(Tebow and Moreno) and one great celebration. This years game features many of the same players plus an added element thanks to the celebration. Will Tebow and the Gators dance when they score, will Richt pull out another crazy idea, will there be an all out fight. I say yes to all. In the end, UGA's young, pathwork offensive line will falter as it did against Alabama and UF will make one great play on special teams to pull out the win 38-24.

-Texas-Texas Tech will be an interesting matchup. TT will throw the ball all over. Texas will blitz against a line that has allowed fewer than 5 sacks all year. The winner of that battle wins the game. I say TT wins because blitzing fails more than it works. Ask the Giants. you need to be able to get pressure with only 4 in order to succeed. Blitzing against TT will give Harrell one-on-one and he will pick them apart. Any worry I would have if I were Texas is that this is the biggest game in Lubbuck ever. This is the third biggest game for Texas this month. Who do you think will be more focused and ready. I will take TT in a squeaker 41-38. If Texas loses but somehow wins the Big 12 with 1 loss, and the SEC champ has one loss, I can't wait for the insanity of who gets to beat PSU in the title game. It is gonna be awesome.

-quick note regarding the Red Sox sloberfest posted yesterday. Yes, they have home-grown some talent. Yes, they have a large fan base. This is pretty easy to do when your area covers 5 states. The Red Sox own such a big territory that they can get their own TV station and make a ton of money off it. The Reds own half of Ohio, some of KY and some of IN. Their station is FSN Ohio which is only a small step above PBS in terms of quality and coverage. The Sox own MA, VT, NH, ME, most of RI and parts of CT. Their market is bigger thus generating more revenue from their TV station which is available in all of those states as well as on DirectTV. The Reds could never fund their own station and thus will never get the money that Boston does. And my problem with Boston, other than its fans, is how much it spends and how it spends it. They are able to draft players no one else can because they will pay huge bonus money no one else will. If the player flames out, it would hurt a normal team. The Sox just write it off and cut a million dollar check to another player to replace him. They can afford to pay Coco Crisp $5 million for 350 AB's, Julio Lugo $8 for 300 AB's, Jason Veritek $11 for a 73 OPS+, Schilling $8 to blog and piss people off. These would all be in the top 5 salary wise for the Reds and all were part time, no-time, or bad. The Reds mistakenly signed Eric Milton for 9 million and didn't recover for years. The Sox take it as if it were nothing because of their bags of money. If they make a mistake, they can correct it much easier than 26 other teams. That is unfair.

O, and the players you mentioned, only Nomar was home-grown. Manny, Papi, and Pedro were all bought for money that only 6 teams could have paid for. The Reds never had a chance at any of them. That also makes it unfair. Only one team in the last 15 years has won the World Series with a payroll in the bottom half of the league: The 2003 Florida Marlins. That shows how unfair it is. The only solution would be a salary cap. That will never happen because in order for MLB to make money, NY, BOS, LA, and CHI must be good. They can only be good if they can spend millions to fix their millin dollar mistakes. The cycle continues and, at the start of next season, 15 teams will KNOW they can't win a World Series. When do pitchers and cathers report?

Big Deal Palace Up and Running - Red Sox

Sorry for the long delay, but it took some time to get the new and improved Big Deal Palace up and running. I've finally got the internet and a TV at home, so watch out I may up my production to 2 times a month. I'll try to come back with a few posts in the next week on various topics. Today I'll take on the Red Sox:

While I know my comrade on this blog has been very critical of the Sox "buying" players and points to the Rays success as proving that you can overcome the Big Bad Money Taking Big Market Team by developing talent. While the Rays success illustrates small market teams can compete, it doesn't make the Red Sox model obsolete or even bad. Unless you are a communist (and after this upcoming election we will all likely live in a socialist/communist society like Sweden, but that is a rant for another time and likely violates one of our rules about alienating people), you have to admire the way the Red Sox and Yankees take the revenues from running a successful team and put that money to making the team more successful. Boose's comments would lead one to a "wind fall talent tax" where the teams who generate enough interest to be profitable give some of their players to stupid teams like the Reds who overpay bad people and refuse to pay to keep talented people around (Adam Dunn). If this blog stands for anything (aside from getting dusty baker fired), it stands for capitalism and against socialism.

Boston does have the luxury of making more mistakes since they have an unlimited payroll, but that is because year in and year out they put a product on the field people are willing to pay for. They have found a way to maximize revenues by selling monster seats, pink hats and keeping their old stadium in decent shape. They have consistently paid for top players and even developed some talented players. Since they are willing to keep players around once they become good at baseball rather than sell them for more prospects (who they will get rid of when they get good at baseball), Boston has been able to create cult heroes that fans love (Manny, Nomar, Big Papi & Pedro).

Lets analyze why they have more money and point out the fundamental flaw in small market teams complaint that they just don't have the money to compete (basically assuming that those with money did nothing to deserve it). While metro boston is larger than metro cincy (~4mm vs 2mm), it isn't like Cincy is some sleepy Podunk tiny town. Cincy also doesn't need to support a hockey and basketball team, so it the Reds and Bengals (who don't seem like they will draw many people for years). There is a large enough population to support a baseball team (see 1970s and 80s). The reds stadium (which was paid for by taxpayers and not ownership) has luxury boxes, while Fenway doesn't, so technically is capable of producing more revenue. Cincy is a baseball town and the team was extremely popular in the 1970s when the team was good, so you can't argue Boston has more "history" or a better historical fan base. Cincinnati had the first professional baseball team and also has won a few more championships than Boston, so that excuse doesn't work either. National TV contracts are split, so all those boston-new york games on espn, Cincy sees some of that revenue. Boston has their own tv station (NESN) and is able to get all the revenue from that, but if demand were there Cincy could do the same thing.

So basically we can't hate Boston for "buying" world championships, because they have no built in advantage over Cincy as it relates to generating revenue (same cannot be said for NY, LA or Chicago which are much bigger cities). You can hate Boston for many things (the cold weather, Barney Frank, the fake sox fans who came out of nowhere over the past two years, the slightly overweight women of Cambridge), but hating them for buying championships is just hating success. Instead of saying the sox put a good product on the field, which can win titles every season because they have money, it would be more apt to say The Sox have money because they put a good product on the field and are competitive every game.

The Reds need to take a look at the Sox business model and find a way to put a good team on the field every season, quit rebuilding all the time and let the fans know you plan to make long term commitments to good players, find other ways to generate revenue and learn how to evaluate talent properly. A good start to all of this would be to get rid of Dusty Baker and find a competent manager and GM, who understand that a computer is not scary and it isn't a sin to allow statistical facts about a players ability to color your gut judgement about that players ability.

We have made this the quest of the blog, but i think gotten off track as our team went down and others succeeded. It is time to right the ship and make sure our single focus as it relates to baseball (we will continue to comment on all things non-baseball. Trust me there will be a full season recap of RR/RR Challenge this year as it is amazing) is to educate the good people out there about how to take a once very proud franchise that could dominate an entire decade back to the front of the MLB pack. The first step in that goal is firing Dusty Baker.

Viva La Revolution

Quick Thoughts

-So the Phillies are going to win the series, just as I predicted. Also, no shame in taking the Bill Belicheat approach to the game. It is only cheating if you get caught. I am sure the dirt that collected all season just happened to be in that one spot. Happens all the time, just ask Kenny Rodgers. There it is folks, the Honorable Phillies, your 2008 World Series Champs, from the Honorable city of Philadelphia. (Yes, this is an attempt to jinx them.)

-Got to love college football this year. Penn State, with their ONE big win will likely play in the title game. Alabama has played ONE good game thus far (at UGA) and will play another in the SEC title game. (The LSU game is mediocre after the Tigers have been exposed against UGA, South Carolina, and UF. What a great SEC defense they have, allowing 125 points in the last 3 games). USC played ONE good game against a non-Pryor lead Ohio State. (At UVA is mediocre now that they may win the ACC) After all that, the decision of who plays Texas is decided by writers and coaches who watch, at best, half the top 25 each week. Sound reasonable. I would hate for those 3 teams, which are practically indistinguishable right now, play in a 4 team playoff with Texas. (Oklahoma is out because you have to at least qualify for your championship game to be considered) Let's let some very biased human beings decide it. This helps preserve the regular season. That great regular season where every week matters. Except the last week because you can lose then and still go to the title game or go undefeated and have no chance at it. (See LSU last season, Nebraska years ago, Oklahoma in 2003, Boise 2 years ago, Aubrun 2004, etc. ) This system is really working.

-So it is down to the Bengals and Lions. Both staring 0-16 and a place in history in the face. Here is the Bengals remaining schedule with my win probability in parenthesis: Jax (5%), BYE (80%), Philly (15%), at Pit (2%), Balt (10%), at Indy (15%), Wash (20%), at Cle (25%), KC (40%). Not looking good.

Here is the Lions schedule: at Chi (15%), Jax (10%), at Car (15%), TB (10%), Ten (5%), Min (15%), at Indy (10%), NO (15%), at GB (10%). Not much better. The only difference I see is Detroit has 6 home games remaining. Cincy has a bye and a finale against a terrible KC team. I'd say it is pretty much 50/50 but, knowing that Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably start for the rest of the year, I will take the Bengals to complete the perfect season.

-I have written before about my love of hamburger helper. The cheesburger macarroni is excellant along with the standards of Lasagna, four-cheese, and beef pasta. But did you know they have Chicken Helper. Cooked the same way only with Chicken. I recommend the Chicken Fried Rice or the Fettuccine Alfredo as a change of pace. Chicken is easier to cook(no draining) and, when mixed with some Frank's Hot Sauce, can be mighty tasty. I should get a Betty Crocker sponsership for this.

World Series Thoughts

I hate Philly. I know I have said why in the past but now it is because they have ruined my predictions. I successfully picked the winner of the four series' in which the Phillies were not involved including the correct number of games in the ALCS and emergence of David Price. For some reason the Phillies have been my nemesis but it is alright, I have a solution. I am picking them to win the World Series in 7. This will effectively jinx them because the only prediction that I have missed have involved the Phillies and now that I have picked them, they will lose. This is the complete opposite of what I think will actually happen, but it must be done in order to ensure a Rays victory in 5. I sure feel better now. Here are some other thoughts on the Fall Classic:

-Great to see the Red Sox fail to finish the comeback. I am sick of hearing about their comeback against the Yanks in 2004 and the Indians in 2007. When you spend $130 million every year, putting together a 3 or 4 game winning streak is not that impressive. Now their key players are hurting (Papi's wrist, Drew's back, Lowell's everything) and their position players are not developing well. Ellsbury was supposed to be the next Beltran but tanked this season, they need a shortstop and corner outfielder, not to mention replacing Paul Bako 2.0 behind the plate. I am sure they will go out and spend $30 million to fill the holes because they are the new Yankees and money is no object. It would be nice to see them miss the post season next year only to see all their "fans" disappear overnight. If they have any significant injuries during the year to a pitcher or two, I think they will miss the playoffs.(I made a comment earlier this year about the crowds at Fenway being terrible and many writers commented on the fans in games 3 and 4 being lackluster and only their to see and be seen. The lesson here is, I am always right.)

-The Rays are one hell of a team. They are better then the Phillies defensively(by a long shot) and, other then Cole Hamels who is the best pitcher in the Series, their starting pitcher is superier. The Rays are also younger, fearless, and are coming back fairly quickly. The Phillies have had a week off which doesn't work out well against a team coming off a dramatic 7 game victory(See Tigers in 2006 and Rockies in 2007). David Price is going to be a superstar and I think he will be used again to nail down a close game. Another outing like Sunday and he will become a legend in Tampa, until he becomes a free agent and the Red Sox give him $150 million to replace another $30 million pitcher who didn't pan out.

-No more Frank TV ads or reruns or The Steve Harvey Show. No more Buck Martinez. No more TBS. Now we are blessed with Joe Buck(Jim Nantz) and Tim McCarver(Billy Packer). I only wish FOX would get rid of Tim the way CBS dumped Packer. They are both past their prime and discuss the sport as if it is 1978. The game has passed Tim by and he hasn't realized it. His comments about Manny disgracing the game by not running out groundballs was so hypocritical in light of his non mention of Brett Myers and his domestic violence charge. Which do you think disgraced the game more? I will take the wife beater.

-Enjoy the games and the blog will turn to football and other baseball musings after the series. Remember Phillies in 7 (but really Rays in 5).

LCS Predictions

Well I got 3 of the 4 series right. The one I got wrong just happened to be my world champion. Hey, it's not my fault CC turned into Eric Milton, Prince Fielder turned into Corey Patterson, and Ryan Braun became Paul Bako. Now onto the LCS. I have a good feeling about these.

Phillies - Dodgers

The Phillies looked good in the first round and now have homefield. They also have some pitcher named Christopher Gruler. O wait no. That is who the Reds chose ahead of their real pitcher, Cole Hamels. Hamels should win 2 games in the series but who will win the other? Brett Myers? The same Brett Myers who was so terrible he was sent to AAA earlier this year and is now pitching in the biggest game of his life. I think he may revert back to his pre-minors form. Who else? Joe Blanton? His statistics have been average with a 106 ERA+ but he went to the University of Kentucky. Probably too interested in being mediocre in football and overrated in basketball to concentrate. The 45 year old Jamie Moyer is all that is left. By the way, he was once a teammate of Davy Lopes who was a teammate of Hoyt Wilhelm. Hoyt was born in 1922. It took only one common teammate to go from Jamie Moyer to a man who played at the Polo Grounds for the New York "Baseball" Giants under Leo Derocher. That is old. And his 71 mile an hour fastball won't fool Manny. He will sit back and crush it.

The Dodgers on the other hand have young players who are still fresh but lack experience in big games. Some people think this is bad but I think it can be good. Say your team has been beaten in their last 3 straight playoff series. They have experience but it is of losing and getting tight in big games. If they didn't have that experience, they would probably be better off. These Dodgers don't have those bad experiences(I am looking right at the Angels and Cubs). Manny has some pretty damn good ones. Their pitching is pretty solid with Lowe, Billingsley (taken 10 picks after Ryan Wagner), Clayton Kershaw (chosen one pick ahead of Drew Stubbs,), and whoever else they throw out there. They also have 4 time Cy Young award winner Greg Maddux if needed. Overall, the teams look pretty even.

In the end though, I like Joe Torre over Charlie Manual and Manny Ramirez over anyone else. I'll take the Dodgers in 7. And if you think this is a pick just because I hate Philly fans and want them to be miserable, well, you are right.

Rays - Red Sox

Another one where everyone likes the road team. Most of it is because Boston controls most of the media and can make it say practicly anything. Did you know the Red Sox are the greatest team with the greatest fans ever? I didn't until I heard and read all about it. I thought they finished in second in their division despite spending $90 million more then the first place team. I guess I thought the team that finished first was better.

As for the series, I originally picked the Rays in 7. I am sticking with that but I am not quite as sure. The Red Sox did as I expected and woke up for the playoffs. They have become the San Antonio Spurs of baseball meaning they coast through the regular season then turn it up for the postseason. If Beckett were 100% they would have the advantage. If Manny were still there, they would have an advantage. Without that, the teams are equal so I will take the home team in 7 and yes, it has something to do with my dislike of their "fans."

Tampa has great pitching, a great bullpen, and good hitting. They also have speed so if Boston does what they say and pitch Wakefield (I don't think they will), the Rays will steal all over the place. But who knows. These teams were pretty even in the regular season and should be pretty even in this series. A couple bounces one way or another could change the game. I am rooting for the young, entergetic, worst-to-first, low payroll team. I guess I am somehow hoping this is what the Reds become. Too bad we would need a competent manager.

Post Script: So the Reds could have had Cole Hamels and Chad Billingsly. Instead we drafted two guys who are not in the majors. We also missed Kershaw by one pick for a guy who is 25 and still not in the majors. I sure hope Walt Jocketty knows what he is doing because all the other GM's we have had sure screwed the pooch.

FINALLY OVER!!!

Break out the champagne! Ring the bells! The long wait is finally over!

No, the Reds have not won anything in over a decade but Walt Jocketty came out and said the most glorious words any Reds fan could hear today: Corey Patterson will NOT be back in 2009. This is cause for celebration. And this time real celebration, not the wake up on the coach, stay drunk for 48 hour, celebration I had last week after passing the bar. I'm gonna party Michael Irvin style.

Playoff Predictions

Before the playoffs begin let me give you my thoughts:

Cubs-Dodgers

I smell and upset. The Cubs have red flags all over the field. They haven't played a meaningful game all of September thanks to the total tank job of the Brewers. Big Z has also struggled his past two starts and, if you throw out the no hitter which was against a ravaged Houston team worrying about their city and homes disappearing while playing a "home" game in Milwaukee, he hasn't had a quality start since August 14th and that was against the Reds. Ryan Dumpster takes the ball in game one and any long-time Reds fan knows he is not as good as advertised. Call me a skeptic but how does a pitcher have far better numbers then he has ever put up at age 31 in a hitter's ballpark. His WHIP is .300 lower then his career average(that is a big number) and his ERA+ is 152, 32 points higher then his previous best season which was when he was 23 and in his prime. Something doesn't look right. 31 year-olds don't do that naturally-er-normally.

I think LA will steal one in Chicago then win both at home to take the series 3-1. I am mostly picking it because I hate these fans. And they will be coming out of the woodwork this week. Look out.

Brewers-Phillies

CC is a monster. I think he can win two games by himself. No questions asked. Just goes to show you how much of a difference there is in the two leagues. While he was good in the AL, he is untouchable in the NL. That leaves the Brewers only needing one more win. I think Ryan Braun will get one big hit and win that game for them, as long it isn't needed today(Rosh Hashanah) or next Wednesday (Yom Kippur). You probably didn't even know he was Jewish. See, you learn something new every day when you read the blog. So keep doing it. Or else.....

I will take the Brewers in 5. Good series but Ryan Howard can't hit lefties and that will come back to haunt them against CC. But, if Gagne pitches, all bets are off. He is like 3 Corey Pattersons rolled into one.

Red Sox-Angels

One team is the defending world champs and the other hasn't played a meaningful game since before the all-star break. Got to take the Red Sox. As much as I hate them, they have the best team. That is what you get when you spend 9 figures every year for a decade, and not just on their major league team, they fill their minors with best talent money can buy. Good for them and bad for everyone else. They will be loaded for a long time thanks to no cap and a ridiculous international system where any good player will be snatched up by who spends the most, not through the draft. Why isn't there a seperate international draft? O yeah, because baseball wants the big market, rich teams to be good and an international draft would hurt that. The rich keep getting richer thanks to good ole Bud.

Boston in a sweep. The Angels are good but the Red Sox get bored in the regular season. They will turn it on now that they are on the big stage. I just wish Boston fans weren't so obnoxious. I'm not the only one.

White Sox-Rays

Love the Rays. They are what the Reds could be if they could draft and develop talent. Almost all of their team is home-grown or acquired in trades for other home-grown talent with a few, low-level fre agents thrown in. They have been winning all year in the toughest division in baseball. Now they get the White Sox who are in "we are just glad we made it" mode after winning three tough games the last three days. The Rays should handle them easily and, although it would be nice to see Griffey make a run at a championship, I think the Sox don't have enough left.

Rays in a sweep. Pitching is too good and wait until you see David Price. He pitched against Louisville in the AAA playoffs and his stuff is filthy. He is better then Joba was last year but without the New York media machine to tout him.

Those are the first round predictions. Here are the rest quickly but I will provide more once the first round ends and my picks inevitablly fail. Brewers over the Dodgers in 6 thanks to CC showcasing for his future employer, Rays over Red Sox in 7 because of the advantage in the giant pinball machine, and Brewers over Rays to win it all. Why not? The Badgers just choked away their season, Brett Farve is gone, what else do they have in Wisconsin? And anyway, anything is better then listening to insufferable Cubs or Red Sox fans talk about how great their team is even though they couldn't name more then 10 players. Go Brew Crew!

Awards Part II

Here are some more awards:

Greg Vaughn Award (Best new hitter acquisition) goes to........

Jerry Hairston Jr. I almost confused him with Jerry Hairston Sr. Thank goodness he keeps that Jr. on the end. This is the one Dusty signing that didn't tank. He played well when not injured. Unfortunately, he only managed 80 games and 260 AB's. If he could stay healthy for an entire season, he could be useful. Too bad he hasn't played more then 120 games since 2002 and will be 32 next season. It was a good run for him but he is not the answer for next year's Reds. Having said that Dusty will resign him and Patterson and give them each starting jobs then be totally confused when the Reds only win 60 games.

Danny Jackson Award (Best new pitcher acquisition) goes to.......

Edinson Volquez. Coco was a close second. I know Coco had his ups and downs but it was recently revealed that he had a problem with his foot all year. Add that to his 136 ERA+ and having an anchor in the ninth to open up Weathers and Burton for the 7th and 8th, major trouble spots for last years Reds and Coco comes in a close second. Volquez is the winner. I would trade Josh Hamilton again in a hearbeat. I would give his stats but I have a feeling he will get another award.

Chris Sabo Award (Best rookie hitter) goes to.......

Joey Votto. Could make a good case that he is the Rookie of the Year in the NL. Here are his and Soto's numbers. Guess which one are his.

Player A: .297/.368/.506, 32 2b's, 24 hr's, 84 rbi's, 124 OPS+
Player B: .285/.364/.506, 25 2b's, 23 hr's 86 rbi's, 122 OPS+

Eerily similar. Votto is player A and looking at purely offensive stats, he is better. Soto plays a much tougher position on a team headed to the playoffs so he should win the award. I'm just saying that it is close. I think he isn't going to win because all the voters hate Canadians like Votto. I know I do.

Scott Williamson Award (Best rookie pitcher) goes to.......

Johnny Cueto. He had his ups and downs but at the end of the day, you have to remember that he is 22 years old, started 31 games and won 9 times, threw 174 innings while posting a 94 ERA+, and 158 K's. If he continues to improve, he, Volquez, Harang, and Arroyo could be the more formidable top 4 in the division. Owings, Bailey, and any other pitcher simply need to hold down the 5th spot and the rotation is set.

Johnny Bench Award (Best Hitter) goes to.......

Adam Dunn. I know he only played on the team until August 10th but he put up another monster year with 32 hr's and 74 rbi's in only the 113 games in a Reds uniform. His OPS+ of 130 is tops among regular players and his 197 OPS+ with RISP and 2 outs shows he got it done when it mattered. I love the big donkey, and I miss the big donkey.

Mario Soto Award (Best Pitcher) goes to......

Edinson Volquez. He was electric. His struggles after the all-star break took him out of contention for the Cy Young but he was still a legit all-star who could strike out 10 batters any start. Here are his stats: 24 years old, 32 starts with 17 wins, 196 inning with an ERA+ of 140, and 206 K's. Ridiculous numbers from a kid who is still improving. Another year of work under the tutalige of Mario Soto and he could be one of the top 5 starters in the NL.

Dave Miley Award (Most clueless manager) goes to.......

Dusty Baker. He needs to be fired now and replaced with a competent person. Hell, I will take someone with a pulse at this point. Anyone would know Bako and Patterson can't play baseball. O well, the blog will continue until my dream is realized and someone else is managing my beloved Reds.

Awards for the season part I

Now that the Reds season is mercifully over and another losing season is in the books let me hand out some awards. I will try to have some positive ones and not give all the bad ones to Dusty but it will be tough after suffering through this 74-88 debacle.

Onto the awards:


Eric Milton Award (worst performance by a Reds free-agent pitcher) goes to........

Josh Fogg. He was supposed to be a shrewd signing by former GM Wayne Krivsky. It turned into a disaster. His stats go as follows: 2-7 in 14 starts and 8 relief appearances, 7.58 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 17 HR's allowed in 78 innings. Batting practice pitchers put up better numbers.

Juan Castro Award (worst performance by a Reds free-agent hitter) goes to..........

Corey Patterson. Was there any other choice? 3 million for a 48 OPS+. The only personnel director who thinks this was a good move is Mike Brown. But at least he hasn't been arrested 50 times like Brown's players.

Art Shell Award (worst performance by a coach) goes to.......

Brook Jacoby. This team was known for their good hitting and terrible pitching. Dick Pole somehow fixed the bullpen just in time for Jacoby to stand by while our hitters regress. Griffey nose-dived, EE failed to progress, and, if not for the rookies who were untainted by Jacoby, they would have been the worst line-up in the National League.

Entourage Award (most disappointing season from a formerly good player) goes to.....

Ken Griffey Jr. Aaron Harang would be the easy answer but I blame most of his struggles on Dusty. Griffey never got going and has only been worse since joining Chicago. Not once have I heard his name discussed. We all expected a big season if he stayed healthy. Well he was healthy and failed to produce. His season reminded me of Entourage last season. Everyone expected big things, then every week revolved around one stupid movie. We don't watch Entourage for the acting. The acting is awful. We watch it for the partying and fun side of Hollywood.

Friday Night Lights Award (most under appreciated player) goes to.....

Adam Dunn. The man was an amazing baseball player who loved the game, his teammates, and the city of Cincinnati. That is very hard to find. I wish more people would realize this and appreciate it just as I wish more people would appreciate FNL. The best show in TV is relegated to Directv this fall because ratings were so bad and Directv offered to pay some of the costs. Now all I need is a friend with Directv.

That is all for today. Come back tomorrow for more. (you didn't think I would give you all of them now. I need to increase my hits from 8 to 16.)

Dusty's terrible moves

So many bad moves it is difficult to remember them all. Here is a quick list of the easy ones. Feel free to add any others.

-Playing Corey Patterson. This is listed first for obvious reasons. Dusty loves Corey and not because he is dating Dusty's daughter. Dusty had to come out against that rumor in the papers. Corey must love Dusty because he is on pace for almost 400 PA's and an OPS+ of 48 while making 3 million. The move was done because Dusty wanted it done. Now he keeps playing Corey hoping he will turn it around and make the investment worth it. I wish someone would wake him up and tell him the season is over and getting some rookies some extra AB's and experience would not be a bad idea

-Playing Paul Bako. Like Corey, this is another of Dusty's guys he brought in and continues to throw out there even though he is 36, and has an OPS+ of 58 while his heir apparent, Ryan Hanigan, has an OPS+ of 90 in very limited action. Maybe he should play more because John Fay did some checking and found the Reds are 14-8 when he starts and the pitchers have a 3.68 ERA. So Bako is a worse hitter and he calls an equal or worse game. Why is he playing again?

-Overusing some young arms. Volquez has pitched 200 innings. 24 year olds who, 2 years ago pitched only 120 innings, should not throw 200 innings for a 5th place team. Cueto is 22 and will pitch over 180 innings this year. These two are the cornerstone of our future. They should have been given more days off in September once the season was essentially over. Better to have them in September next year for a few more starts then overwork them this year.

-The San Diego debacle. Aaron Harang was ruined for two months thanks to Dusty's terrible decision making. Aaron threw 4 innings on 3 days rest. He went into a total tailspin after that and landed on the DL. Hopefully he will be back to 100% by the beginning of next year so he can return to his old form. Without him, the Reds will be in big trouble.

What else?

Back with power and a look-back

After 8 days without power thanks to hurricane Ike, the blog is back and running. The Reds decided to celebrate me not being able to watch by playing good baseball. They won close games and the pitching has been fantastic. They look like they are playing against a bunch of AAA guys and guys who just want the season over. O wait, that is who they are playing against. It sure is easy to win when you are the only ones trying.

The Reds have clinched another losing season, making it eight in a row. Their record will look pretty good, somewhere around 75 wins, but don't let that fool you. This team hasn't played a meaningful game since June and the surge is not the result of trading Adam Dunn. Before Dunn was traded, the team scored 4.3 runs a game. Since then, they have scored 4.5 against September rosters and teams simply playing out the string. The real reason for the 22-16 record since the Dunn trade is the team ERA which was 4.65 before and is 3.81 since. WHen you allow nearly a run less a game, the record will improve. That is not rocket science.

This recent run of success will only make Dusty look better, which as we all know, is bad for the Reds. Over the next few days we will relive some of his worst decisions. After that, we will wrap of the season with some awards and look forward to next year. Stay tuned.

Football picks

Since we all know the Reds will sweep the Adam "I am the reason my team doesn't win" Dunn, let me make some picks for the interesting games of the weekend:

South Florida will handle Kansas tonight. Kansas has played such a terrible schedule the last 2 years, losing their only big game to Missouri last fall. USF looked bad last week but they were on the road in front of a very hostile 50,000 people. The friendly confines of Tampa will help them.

Wisconsin will struggle with Fresno, but still win. This game reminds me too much of Wisconsin-UNLV from last year. They travel cross country to play the biggest game that school will have all year. The Badgers will look bad but still win by a TD or so.

Georgia will beat the other USC. Spurrier will hang around for a half but Georgia, injuries or not, is too good in the end. If Georgia somehow loses, that does not bode well for the SEC.

Half of America will fall asleep during the Michigan-Notre Dame game. No points will be scored. The over/under for this game is 37.5. And I like the under. Wake me when it is over.

If I were a betting man, I would do a two team parlay with Auburn, giving 11 to a terrible Mississippi State team and the Georgia Tech money line over Va Tech. The Hokies have no offense and the Jackets have been good in both of their games. This should pay about 4.5 or 5 to 1.

As for the NFL, who really cares. I do like that I can bet on NE and either they win, and I get money, or they lose and I am happy. Maybe that will make my Sundays interesting.

Reds finally winning

Well it took the Reds being eliminated from the Central race for them to start playing well. They have won 8 of 11 thanks to the young guys stepping up. Bruce has a ridiculous 1.400 OPS in his 8 September games and Votto is at 1.222. Corey Patterson is even having a great month with his .296 OBP, easily his highest of the season, and his 7 hits in 8 games makes this month better then June and July hitswise. His 47 OPS+ is threatening Gabor Paul II Bako and his plummeting 55 OPS+ for worst on the team for players with over 200 AB's. If he went by Gabor and not Paul I would like him a lot more. Bako has been horrible recently going .135/.214/.162 in his last 11 games yet he continues to start when Cueto and Volquez are on the mound. Dusty doesn't want to start Hanigan because Bako has caught those two for all of 5 months and he doesn't want to mess with that. Someone should tell him these guys are professional baseball players who really don't care who is behind the plate and starting Hanigan will set us up better for next year when, godwilling, Bako is gone. Once again, Dusty amazes.

On to football. HUGE game this weekend between the Trojans and Buckeyes. Should be a dandy for a few quarters until USC pulls away in the second half. If I were a betting man and gambling were legal, I would take the Trojans as long as I wasn't giving up more then 14 points. USC has won a ton of big games under Carrol and they are nearly invincible in the Colesium. OSU is a nice little squad that has struggled in big games on the road recently. USC 31-OSU 14.

As for the NFL, a bunch of boring games last weekend(saw that one coming) with only the Carolina-SD game being interesting. Hopefully we will get a few more good ones this week but I doubt it.

Here is a link to another Ryan Parker song(he did the Jay Bruce almighty one). This time it is about the silver lining now that Brady is done for the year.

Weekend Thoughts

Another season, another disappointment for the friends of fdb. I haven't commented on the UofL Cardinals terrible performance a week ago at home against UK, because I was just too angry. After taking a week to think about it, I'm still too angry to talk about it. Kragthorpe should go, it is clear. He has taken a national contender and turned them into a CUSA also ran. I will no longer waste my breath as clearly UofL has decided it is a basketball school. Football is expensive to maintain anyway, and it is difficult to recruit. I'm glad I no longer have to watch the Cards games on Saturdays and can focus on other teams. Also can try to make some money (if gambling were legal) by taking USC and going against ND (trust me it will work out for you).

After what I saw on Sunday, I'm now forced to go against one of my rules regarding yelling at one of our 4 fans. We received a comment praising the work of Kimo Von Whateverhisname, when he took out Carson Palmer at the knee. After watching fans cheer as Brady limps off the Field this weekend, I must say something. There is one thing to cheer for your team and hope the opposing team doesn't play well. That's fine, you always want to win and if that means your opponent pulls a Kragthorpe (or Dusty) and just sucks that's fine. But cheering for someone to seriously hurt his chance to ever play again is downright sick. Maybe it is people who have never competed in sports, but athletes all have a healthy respect for each other (and yes this includes divers. I would never cheer for anyone to hit his head on the board risking serious injury. That would just be sick.). You never want to see someone knocked out of a contest due to injury. I would equate cheering as Carson Palmer is taken off the field to someone standing over Big Ben as he lays on the ground after his motorcycle accident cheering. I don't like Tom Brady and want the Patriots to lose everygame, but I don't want some freak accident (or malicious cheap shot, however you see it) to be the reason. Tom Brady is a fantastic athlete who works very hard at his craft, to hope this is taken away from him is like wishing Michelangelo would have fallen from the Sistine Chapel ceiling.

Sorry if I offended FDB nation, but you can't seriously want your team to win soley by destroying someone else's livelihood. Could you?

Another glorious weekend

Well the Reds managed to stave off a sweep by the Pirates yesterday. And all i took was getting Fogg, Patterson, and Bako off the field. Funny how that works. I wish someone would have thought of that months ago. All we can hope for is to beat the now reeling Cubs. The fans, voted here as the most annoying, are panicking because their constantly overworked starter, Fat Z, has tendonitis in his shoulder and Harden has a dead arm. Fat Z's "tendonitis" is more serious then it sounds. A starter who goes from a 96 fastball to an 89 fastball, as he did in his last start, has more wrong then tendonitis. Harden is always injured and one has to assume that he will not pitch another meaningful inning the rest of the year. The Reds will get a chance to play spoiler in front of a "home" crowd. Home is in parenthesis because there is no way more than 30% of the fans will be rooting for Cincinnati. Most will be dressed in blue, drinking bear, yelling obnoxiously and pretending like they care about what is going on.

The real fun this weekend happens on the gridiron. Two full days of football. Saturday's games aren't all that great but. hey, I'll take mediocre college teams (Vandy vs. South Carloina) over that snoozefest between the Giants and the Racist Nicknames last night. Look out for the 'Dores. They must be a top 20 team if they can win a game in the SEC. From what I hear, only about 15 teams qualify as good enough to beat an SEC team and 11 of them are already in the conference. The highlight of Saturday's games should be the West Virgina - East Carolina game. And if you think I picked that game just to post that picture, then you are right.

Sunday's games offer a little better matchups. I, and about 20 other people in the country, am interested in the Cincinnati-Baltimore game just to see Chad Ocho Cinco play. Other then that, I wouldn't mind seeing Brett Favre play terribly to knock him off his high horse and the Patriots to get caught violating the integrity of the game. Probably not going to happen but a man can dream can't he. Have a good weekend everyone.

Bats in playoffs, Football is back

The Reds are still playing but the real story is in Louisville where the Bats are looking to actually win something of substance for the organization. They are in the playoffs so there haven't been any September callups. Not that it would do any good to expose those guys to the terrible team and awful manager currently residing in Cincinnati. Football is the real story.

The NFL kicks off tomorrow, one week after its better counterpart began. Here's looking forward to another boring season of the same styles, players, and plays being done over and over until two teams play in the Super Bowl. No ingenuity, no rivalries, and boring football make the NFL inferior to college. And yes, the players may have more skills, but college ain't too shabby. I would rather watch A+ drama and B+ skill then D+ drama and A+ skill. Anyway, here are some predictions

AFC Championship: Colts over Chargers. I refuse to pick Bellicheat. Hopefully he will be out of the league by then because he violated the integrity of the game and called into question 8 years of football. This won't happen because Shady Brady and the boys are a cash cow for the NFL. I think the Colts will be healthy this year and ready to reclaim their spot at the top of the AFC. San Diego plays in an awful division and has the best player in football. They should always be at the top.

NFC Championship: Cowboys over Saints. Like the Saints to rebound and the Cowboys are loaded at almost every position.

Super Bowl: Colts over Cowboys. Peyton won't lose a Super Bowl. He will have two weeks to watch film while Romo will have two weeks to party. Plus the game is in Tampa. It will be like Super Bowl XLI all over again.

Offensive MVP: Tomlinson. He is just too good. You think Atlanta would like to have him instead of the Dog Killer right now.

Defensive MVP: Patrick Willis. He is way too good to be on that awful team.

AFC Rookie of the year: Darren McFadden. Will have great numbers in a limited role.

NFC Rookie of the year: Matt Ryan. Winning 5 games on that team should get him MVP votes.

Biggest bust: Andre Woodsen. We went from potential first round pick to jobless in 8 months because he has the slowest release ever recorded. Only Michael Vick fell faster in one summer.

Last day of boredom

This is it. The final night before 4 glorious months of football. With that said, let me make some predictions that will invariably fail.

BCS Champion: Some overrated SEC team with two losses. Happens every year because the media loves the SEC almost as much as the SEC loves itself. If they only knew that most people laugh at them for their antics and don't feel Florida or LSU were the best team the past two years. Louisville would have played a good game against Florida(hell they almost lost to south carolina and arkansas) and USC would have whipped LSU even with their home-field advantage.

Runner-Up: Oklahoma. They will run through their 10 easy games and 2 hard ones(Texas and Mizzu) but choke again in a BCS game. Or as I like to say, they will pull an A-Rod and choke under pressure(this is a total joke. A-Rod is the best player in the league and gets the worst rap. Their is no such thing as clutch.)

Heisman: Knowshon Moreno. He is amazing and in the SEC. The media will drool.

Big East champ: Louisville. Hey, why not. If Louisville doesn't win the Big East title, I blame Dusty Baker.

Speaking of Dusty, he continues to play Patterson and Bako while foregoing the youth movement of Sully Hanigan and any other outfielder. Here is a quote from Hal McCoy's blog, "asked if Bako’s work with Volquez and Cueto made him a candidate to return next year, Baker said, 'Yeah, I think so."' That is so great to hear. I can't wait to hear his excuse for why Patterson needs another shot in CF.

He's Back

Hello all. I decided that since Boose was able to take a month off, I'd treat myself to a similar hiatus from the blog. Since I left, the Reds have decided to give up on this year and the next few by selling off two of their best bats for some young prospects who they can nurture to the point a contending team will be willing to trade more prospects for them. I look forward to writing about that in a few years (assuming at least one of them avoids flaming out and is with the club in 3 years). The good news is that this frees up money to resign Corey Patterson. Unlike Boose I think Patterson just needs to play everyday so we can see those 5 tools produce. None of this production will show up on the stat sheet, but can you put a price on his grit, hustle and determination? I would say no.

Also we've seen Boose go on countless rants against the BoSox, which seems odd given we have 10 readers and one of them is a Red Sox fan. While I equally hate the fake fans from Boston who pretend to have lived through the tough years, I also envy them. I wish I could just pick a winning team and then feel the joy of a championship. But such is not our lot in life as loyal Reds, Bengals and UofL fans. We should be one with our Boston brethren who had to endure years of heartbreaking losses by the Sox, terrible play by the Pats and the depressing Ricky P years of the Celtics. Problem is those fans have been drown out by the new breed of Boston fan, who once knew someone that knew a kid that went to BC so they've always followed Boston sports. We hate those people. Also the true Boston fan who lived through the down years, can you remember what it is like to follow a franchise that clearly does care about winning? Do not look down from your new found success and ridicule us, but rather throw some support behind the hopeless Cincy fan base. We are good people, who just want to feel that management does care and is willing to field a competitive team. We've been close to the mountaintop (A cheap shot on Carson Palmer's knee away from beating the eventual super bowl champs, 1 win against a hapless Brewers team from heading to the playoffs and a false start against Rutgers away from playing for the national championship). All those memories seem so distant as the future of our 3 teams looks extremely bleak.

With the reds 2008 and 2009 seasons are pretty much over, we shall turn our focus to the Bengals and Cards. I'm pulling for the Cards to either make a miracle run through the Big East and win 10 games or pull a Kragthorpe and lose 10 games leading to his immediate dismissal and being replaced by Ron English. On the Bengals front, we need to steal a few games early in the season while the team is banged up. If we can stay .500 while Chad, Rudi and TJ get healthy we can make a run at it.

Well this has been another long Tom post, which I hear many of you do not enjoy reading. If it makes it easier, break it up throughout the week. Maybe 1 paragraph a day (Granted if you have made it to this point my advice is no longer helpful, so yes i see the flaw here).

Reds beat the Cubs; still can't hit

Arroyo pitched a gem last night and the Reds held on for a 2-1 win. Great effort from Bronson but pitching hasn't really been the problem recently. The problem for most of the second half and all of the 9 games since Adam Dunn was traded is offense. Since Adam Dunn was traded the Reds are averaging 3.1 runs per game. The Diamondbacks are averaging 6.6. But hey, the Reds haven't clogged the bases as much. Their OPS was .727 before the trade and .659 since the trade. So the Reds plan was, we are having trouble scoring runs, let get rid of the player who gets on base the most and drives in the most runs. Brilliant.

Now our two best OPS+ numbers belong to Encarncion, a 25-year old 3rd basemen who has yet to develop a solid hitting approach and plays sub-par defense, and Joey Votto, a 24-year old rookie who is still learning to be a big-league hitter and plays sub-par defense. Brandon Phillips has a great slugging percentage but refuses to take a walk, Keppinger and Bruce have come back to earth, Dickerson and Rosales have only been Reds for 20 minutes and don't get me started on Bako and Patterson. I don't know where the runs are coming from. Must be all that speed running our popflys. But I do feel better after receiving a letter from the owner and GM.

There is a new poll which should be interesting. Which fans are the most annoying: Cubs fans, Cardinal fans, or Red Sox fans? Let me give you a quick breakdown.

Cubs fans-these are people from all over the country who want to be cool. Most are "consultants" who are overeducated and underemployed. They claim to have always been a fan of the Cubs but few can name a manager before Dusty Baker and Sweet Lou came to town. They are loud, obnoxious, and generally piss everyone off who is not a Cubs fan. They are currently driving the second largest bandwagon in baseball and, if they fail to make the playoffs for a few years, will lose 50% of the fans. They wish they were as good as Boston or as historic as New York and have a real inferiority complex about being the "Second City." Most hated in St. Louis, Milwaukee, and any other Midwestern city

Cardinal fans-these fans are a fairly loyal bunch, having strong ties to Missouri, western KY, and southern IL. The real problem with them is they think they are the most knowledgeable fans in baseball even though there is no way to prove it. This leads to many of their fans saying asinine things that are totally wrong in order to show their baseball knowledge. When confronted with facts to back up the opposite point, they ignore it and scream louder. While Cubs fans wish they were on the east coast, Cardinal fans wish St. Louis was as good as Chicago. They have a Midwestern envy. Most hated in Chicago, KC, Cincinnati.

Red Sox fans-they are so touchy nowadays. As recently as 2003, they were the tortured losers with a devoted following whom everybody felt bad for and rooted for. Now they are the largest bandwagon of obnoxious and fair weather fans. They spend insane amounts of money to buy championship caliber teams and still wish they were the Yankees and had 26 titles. Always the 2nd most important team in baseball and they can't stand it. They get angry when someone questions their loyalty or passion(as evidenced by the comments from earlier posts) and fail to see the humor when called out about it. They have won 2 world series in the last 4 years and will be more then happy to tell anyone and everyone about it. Most hated everywhere but New England.

Reds lose again; Dusty continues to amaze

Dusty decided that last night was a great time to start Corey Patterson in Chicago. Earlier this year I posted a video of what happens in the bleachers when Corey starts. Dusty ignores this and sends him out there to misplay balls and not get hits. Well done.

The Reds are reduced to playing spoiler. Not going to happen. The Reds can't score more then 3 runs a game which is something we all knew was coming. Even with a great outing like last night from Cueto, there is no offense to pick him up. Sure would hate to have a player with a very high OBP and VORP whose name rhymes with Fadam Gunn. But I guess we had to get rid of him because of his defense, since a little below average defense offsets his powerful offensive arsenal. Saving 10 runs a season is more important then driving in 100 runs and hitting 40 HR's. Now the owner and GM write a letter to the fans telling them to be patient. This is the same man who said 3 months ago that we weren't going to lose anymore. But they did and now they are wandering aimlessly. No plan. No blueprint. Just losing. 8 years in a row.

Now that the season is over let's get to some Olympics talk. These Phelps and Bolt guys are pretty good. I don't what I am to do these next few days without them. I guess I could focus on the Walsh-May team but they only have one more game. Gymnastics is over and the Men's Basketball is a cakewalk. Any suggestion? There are still some gay divers and manly women throwing shotputs but I will have to pass.