Glad I haven't had much to write about

-It has been a few weeks since I have written on the blog. My little brother got married last week so that took up a good amount of time but the real reason is the Reds have been playing very well. Despite Dusty's best efforts, and I think he is trying to kill me by continually playing Cabrara, the Reds have taken their largest lead in the Central since Lebron James was in High School, 2002. How long ago does that sound now? The Reds have four all-stars and a few other players enjoying career years. The pitching has held up and with one win this weekend they will ensure a winning record on this 11 game road trip. Didn't think that was possible. I will have a longer Reds post during the all-star break but for now let's enjoy the First Place Cincinnati Reds. Onto other things.

-The World Cup has been amazing. I have watched nearly every game and thoroughly enjoyed the spectacle and the sport. The USA's dramatic goal against Algeria brought the nation together like no other soccer game. The only thing comparable was the gold medal hockey game. The loss to Ghana was crushing but at least there was no controversy. We just got beat. It happens.

I can't wait to watch the finals on Sunday with Spain vs. Holland. A certain someone picked Spain to win it all so why change now. They have played well since their shocking first game loss to Switzerland and have stars all over the field. Holland was great against Brazil, beating the favorites in one of the most exciting games of the Cup. The most exciting was the Uruguay-Ghana game. I have never seen anything like that and I have watched a ton of sports in my day. The swing from one side to the other so fast and so dramatic had me yelling at the TV multiple times. I just hope the final isn't settled on penalties. I hate PK shootouts in the final. I could see it in the rounds before since you don't want one team gaining a huge advantage of not having played 30 more minutes then the other but in the final that doesn't matter. Let them decide it on the field. Give them bigger rosters, 3 more subs, 10 more subs, however many it takes. I just want someone to win it on the field, not in a glorified home run derby/free throw shooting contest. It is unfair to everyone.

-LeBron in Miami is going to be awesome. The one hour special was stupid but I have one thing to say to all those that complain about it; turn the station. The decision will be the same tomorrow as it was last night. Why watch if you think it is stupid? I watched the Reds game until right before he announced. Once he said Miami I turned back. Simple. He even coordinated it so it would be during a Reds TV break.

I also don't get how he is bailing out by going to Miami. Didn't he get killed for not winning a title by himself? Wasn't everyone saying he needed better players? Now he goes to the team with the best players and it is bailing out because he isn't doing it on his own? No one did it on their own. He tried, it didn't work. Kobe needed Gasol. Michael needed Scottie. Shaq needed Kobe. KG needed Allen and Pierce. Every superstar needs another elite player. It doesn't matter where you do it, just as long as you win. It is a smart decision. He will be on TV nearly every night, play in front of sold out arenas every night, play with good friends who he knows can help him out if needed, and win a ton of games. They don't just mail him the trophy. He will have to earn it and you know Boston, Orlando, LA, etc. will be gunning for them with all they have. How is that bailing out? People say he needs to win. He is trying to do that. Why not go to the best situation?

Will have my first half review next week. Until then, Go Reds.

Quick Reds Update, World Cup Thoughts

Thank goodness I was in New Orleans drinking my face off and missed the latest Dusty Baker stinkbomb. No one could hit and he refused to do anything about the black hole at the top of the lineup. Cabrara kept playing and managed to drop his terrible OPS+ to 67. He has the 4th worst OPS of any player in the NL. And he bats leadoff. HOW CAN DUSTY BE THIS DUMB? Congrats on being the new Corey Patterson. Didn't think it was possible. Dusty benched him last night and they won. Of course it took a Coco blown save to get there but whatever. It has been a rough couple of weeks. I need a break. The Reds need a sweep of Oakland and at least 2 of 3 against Cleveland to get back at the top of the division. Probably won't watch too much since the greatest event in the world is really heating up in South Africa.

The World Cup has been amazing. Everyone is talking about it so we can finally get rid of all the "no one watches soccer" argument once and for all. If you still think Americans don't care then you have been under a rock for 2 weeks or you are a UK fan. It is all me and my friends have talked about and will continue to talk about until America takes home the Cup(I wish).

America was robbed last Friday and I sure let some expletives fly from Bourbon St. but it is still win and move on which is fine. If we can't beat Algeria we don't deserve a spot. I think we will win 2-0 and England will win 1-0. That is how it should be just so we can watch England fans get excited again before having their hearts ripped out next round.

We now know 4 of the final 16 and I don't like to brag but I got 3 of them. Tomorrow morning should be fun.

World Cup Preview

Finally. It is here. I have been waiting for this since Euro '08 ended. Here are some thoughts on what to watch for and what I think will happen:

Group A-Mexico, South Africa, France, Uruguay

I feel this is Mexico's group for the taking. They looked very good toward the end of qualifying, beating the US in Mexico City and taking care of the rest of CONCACAF soon after. The have a great young player in Giovani dos Santos and the new Manchester United player Javier Hernandez. South Africa has the home field advantage which has become a huge factor. Every home team has advanced out of its group since I began watching the World Cup in '94. Having said that, I don't think they can overcome all 3 of these teams. France is very up and down. They won it all in '98, failed to make it out of the group stage in '02, then made the finals in '06. I sense another fall back which is why I think the second team to qualify from here will be Uruguay. Not many people know about them but they have one of the best scoring tandems in the world with Luis Suarez and Diego Forlan. I think Mexico wins the group and Uruguay places second.

Group B-Argentina, South Korea, Greece, Nigeria

This one is all Argentina. They have the best player in the world, Leo Messi, and a ton of other elite players such as Carlos Tevez, Sergio Aguero, and Angel Di Maria. They have an insane coach in former World Cup superstar Diego Maradona who will be either the best thing to happen to them, or the worst. Not much in between with him. I could see any of the other teams rising up and taking second in this group but I am going with Greece. They won the '04 European Championship with unusual tactics and they will be able to use them again to advance here. South Korea made a great run at home in the '02 World Cup(thanks to some "questionable" officiating) but have otherwise been unimpressive including a 3-0 loss to China. Nigeria has a great player in John Obi Mikel but not much else. They are not the African team I am picking to advance.

Group C-USA, England, Slovenia, Algeria

Let's get his out of the way: England and the US will advance. Slovenia is not bad but too young to contend and Algeria needed a playoff just to qualify. The biggest match of the opening round is this Saturday: England vs. USA. I have been thinking about this since it was announced last December and can't believe it is actually here. It feels like the gold medal hockey game a few months back but ten times more intense. I will be singing every patriotic song I can find, drinking beer from that great English ass-kicker Sam Adams, and wearing my T-shirt that says Don't Tread On Me. Go 'Merica!

Group D-Germany, Serbia, Ghana, Australia

OK, here is where I am going a little off the grid. I like Ghana to be the African team that advances in this group. They have a solid team even without the injured Michael Essian, whose replacement Kwadwo Asamoah, is more then capable to take over. They should be able to handle Australia and I think they can tie the other 2, helping them finish second. Germany should win this group because they always play well at the World Cup but without Ballack it could be a struggle. Klose will not let them miss the knockout stage but I don't see them advancing much past the round of 16. Serbia plays a wide open attack which will come back to bite them when they surrender a few counterattack goals that keep them from advancing. The Socceroos are fun to watch but don't have the skill of discipline to compete with these teams.

Group E-Netherlands, Denmark, Cameroon, Japan

This group looks simple on paper and I think it will be just that. The two European squads are full of stars and the other two teams are not. The Dutch have Robin van Persie, Durk Kyut, and Wesley Sneijder, all elite players. Denmark has a great defensive line led by Simon Kjaer and a great attacking midfielder in Christian Poulson. Cameroon has a great player in Samuel Eto'o but not enough else and Japan is one of the worst teams here. I like a bit of an upset with Denmark finishing above the Dutch but both will advance

Group F-Italy, Paraguay, Slovakia, New Zealand

The defending champs have a pretty easy group and will easily advance. They are a few years older so I don't envision another deep run but qualifying for the knockout stage should be easy with Andrea Pirlo running around and Gianlugi Buffon in goal. For the second spot I am again going with a South American squad over the European one. Paraguay looked great in qualifying and has a solid attacker in Oscar Cardozo. Slovakia hasn't been able to put it all together but has a very exciting midfielder in Marek Hamsik. New Zealand looked great in the Lord of the Rings movie, not sure about their soccer team.

Group G-Brazil, Ivory Coast, Portugal, North Korea

North Korea is the worst team here and will be lucky to score a goal. The round robin between the other three teams will be fascinating. Brazil is the obvious choice but not a slam dunk. Robinho and Kaka are two of the best players in the world and will be a joy to watch. Portugal also has a former player of the year in Christiano Ronaldo although he has yet to excel on the international stage as much as he has on the club stage. This should be his time to do that and take Portugal out of the group stage. Ivory Coast was a sleeper for many until their leader and one of the best strikers in the world, Didier Drogba, broke his arm. He is trying to come back but will not have the same impact as he would have had if healthy. Because of the Drogba injury I will take Brazil and Portugal to move on.

Group H-Spain, Chile, Switzerland, Honduras

Spain has been amazing the past 2 years in international competition. The only game they have lost was last summer in the Confederation Cup to 'Merica. Aside from one bad game, they have been dominant. The only problem is their history. They have never won a World Cup and, frankly, have never really been close. They haven't made a final in a few generations and will need to overcome some major demons to win here. The other three teams seem pretty equal. This time I am taking the Euro team over the South American one. Switzerland made the second round in '06 and returns a few of the players including striker Blaise N'Kufo. Chile has a solid scorer in Humberto Suazo but lacks the experience needed to succeed at the cup. Honduras needed a miracle US goal to qualify and will be hard pressed to do much here.

In the knockout rounds I have Mexico-US in the round of 8 with the US advancing. On the other half of the bracket I have Denmark-Brazil in the Quarters with Brazil advancing. The third spot I have going to Argentina after getting by England in the Quarterfinal. The final team I have is Spain after beating the Dutch. In the final 4, I see Brazil beating the US and Spain beating Argentina setting up one of the greatest finals ever and Spain finally winning their first cup. Have fun and enjoy the games.

Off Day Thoughts

Well thank God that is over. The Reds are done with the Cards until August, which is nice. Now its time to pad our record against some below average teams. First up is Washington, followed by San Fran and finally the Royals. For the Reds, the pitching matchups work out pretty well. Washington is holding Strasburg back until right after the Reds leave, Lincecum misses the Reds by 1 day and Greinke should miss the Reds by a day as well. As a Reds fan, this is great news that we don't face 3 of the best pitchers in the game. As a viewer and possible attendant of these games, I am a little disappointed. Strasburg's first start will be like a rock concert. Glad ESPN is picking it up so I can watch it. Lincecum is great to watch on TV and I imagine just as fun to see live. Hope I get a chance to see him next year. I went to KC last season and missed Greinke. Now the Royals are in Cincy and I miss him again. 3 great pitchers, none of which I get to see live. O well. The Reds better capitalize on missing these guys with some wins. I expect no worse then 6-4 and 7-3 seems more realistic.

Now, onto other things.

-The NBA finals start tonight. 2 teams with unbearable fan bases square off. Not interested. Lakers in 6. I will check back in a few weeks when it is over and their fans finally shut up for a few minutes to see if I was right.

-I could not be more excited for the World Cup next Friday. It is one of my favorite events, along with the Olympics and big horse races. 32 countries from around the world go to South Africa to compete in the biggest soccer tournament ever. Every single game will get more viewers then every NBA finals game combined. The crowds are great, the players are amazing, and the drama is like nothing you have ever seen. Each of these players are rockstars back home and scoring a major goal is an achievement of a lifetime. Anyone who scores goes down as a legend. I remember watching in '94 when the US shocked the world and beat Columbia. I watched in '98 as France won on its home soil. I woke up at 3 am in '02 to watch the games in South Korea. In '06 I watched nearly every game thanks to a new thing called TIVO. I hope this World Cup is as exciting as the past few have been. I feel it will be. Go 'merica!

-Belmont stakes is Saturday. No Derby or Preakness winner. The sexy pick seems to be Ice Box, the second place horse from the Derby and the one who cost me my exacta. I think Ice Box loses but haven't decided who beats him. Right now I am thinking Stately Victor or Fly Down. Either one can grab it.

And the run is over

What a 48 hours. They beat the Brewers on an amazing 9th inning comeback, head to Atlanta sky high. Then it blows up. 2 straight walk-off losses including yesterday's epic collapse. I am still recovering. This will stay with the team for a while and may well be the beginning of the end. The past few seasons have had a major turning point where the Reds lose a heartbreaking game in a similar fashion and never recover. Dusty putting Harang in and effectively ruining him in San Diego two year ago comes to mind. Now we will look back at this game as the turning point. I think the team will go downhill. There is a chance they can recover and rise above it. I don't see it happening. Maybe the Cleveland rivalry will take their minds off it but I doubt it.

This is why you have a manager. He is supposed to get his team refocused and ready to move on. This is all Dusty. Either they recover and continue to compete or they fall and the Dusty Baker Farewell Tour picks up steam. Your move Dusty.

In other news, the World Cup kicks off in 3 weeks. I simply cannot wait. Tomorrow is the final of the Champions League which will be a nice tune-up but will pale in comparison to the passion and skill of the world cup. The U.S. should be strong and will have start the tournament with a grudge match 225 years in the making when they play England June 12. Don't Tread on Me. Nike has produced a great commercial to get people excited. Here it is:

Write The Future from Nalden on Vimeo.